Half term report: Steve Cooper's big January begins early

Give us a chance lads. If you're going to have a season defining January, at least give us the opportunity to have a naff New Year countdown before kicking off, will you? In truth, the apparent departure of Djed Spence back to parent club Middlesbrough seemed as inevitable as Neil Warnock blaming the officials for a defeat. Yet, for news to come on New Year's Eve - and be sparked by a harsh Football League stance against Chris Wilder's men - was an unexpectedly early reminder of how big the next few weeks are.

It all seemed so simple after seven games didn't it? Six defeats and one draw meant the task ahead was clear. We were in a relegation battle and faced a long slog. I looked at teams bottom of the league after six games and found that in the last ten years four had been relegated and the average finishing position was 20th. So, it wasn't terminal, but it was interminable. A strong air of 'here we go again'.

Yet we're all aware by now that Steve Cooper's stunning start has changed the conversation. Up until the last two defeats, the ex Swansea-boss had top of the league form and a points tally that took us inexplicably to the edge of the top six. It's been said a lot elsewhere, I know, but it's worth heralding the massive turnaround in attitude, mentality and tactical flexibility Cooper has engineered. His refreshing mindset has permeated all levels of the club and led to a side that can actually attack and entertain after a descent into the doldrums of drabness. His reign has been one great celebratory fist pump that has roused us from a sullen slumber.

Steve Hodge on #nffc Head Coach Steve Cooper:

''He's brought this group together from being an unhappy group of mainly younger but some senior players to a group of players who never give up and seem happy with life at the moment and the results bear that out''. pic.twitter.com/6bZPd7K2yh

— BBC Nottingham Sport (@BBCRNS) December 30, 2021

All of a sudden, a season in which survival would be a success turned into something else. Not only that, but the lack of decent teams at this level even meant that the campaign almost posed an opportunity that would be too good to miss. Just when you think you can relax and enjoy it, there comes the looming pressure and angst that is as much of a fixture of following Forest as the whiff of dodgy burgers on Trent Bridge or the sound of Colin Fray saying 'nothing doing' on commentary.

But, where do we go from here? Can we capitalise on a crap league and ride the crest of a wave into the Promised Land - or will we slip away back towards that 'average finish of 20th' that was the best we could hope for in September?

The fact is, either really could happen and much depends on what happens in January.

If Spence is gone for good - and the picture is far from clear as I type - then he has to be replaced quickly. We'll miss the fact he brought an energy and dynamism to the full back spots that was on the Matty Cash spectrum. Given that the threat of his departure has been raised often you'd like to think Dane Murphy will have had a short list of lung-bursting full backs ready. This is the first window where we may be able to judge the American's influence over transfer strategy and, while shopping in January is a mug's game really, it's important that he can pull a rabbit or two out of the hat if we're to rediscover the momentum we had pre-Boro.

The negative version of January also sees one - or, whisper it quietly, both - of Joe Worrall and Brennan Johnson depart to the Premier League. The sums spoken about for Brennan so far are laughable (buzz off Brentford) - but there's nothing to say someone such as Newcastle might decide to panic buy a prospect or two just to show off their chequebook. Losing our most explosive attacking threat or an influential leader at the back would be a blow that would be difficult to recover from. Any new recruits in their place might take time to get up to speed or might just turn out to be inferior. If any club has learned that new players do not necessarily equal an improvement it's surely ours.

But, if we kept at least two of the three above? And if Dane's a smart shopper? And if Max Lowe can get fit? And if our rivals have their players poached instead? Well, then it could be a different story. 

In recent weeks we have seen there are a couple of gaps that need to be filled even with Spence, Johnson and Worrall at the club. We need quality, not quantity - and one decent attacking winger (left sided please Santa) and a striker would make a big difference. 

The rumoured arrival of Keinan Davis would be interesting - not least because Villa have stuck by him for a long while and have shown a belief in an ability that a cursory glance at his Wikipedia page can't do justice to. An injection of pace and power is certainly not to be sniffed at and would be an upgrade on Lyle Taylor's contribution. 

Cooper will know from 2019/20 with Swansea that an astute January addition can make a difference. His signing of Rhian Brewster on loan brought 11 goals in the second half of the season and catapulted his side into the play-offs (I forget who missed out). Indeed, in 2010/11 the same club drafted in Fabio Borini in March on loan and were propelled into the play-offs with him scoring six in eight starts (I forget who they beat over two legs). A similarly impactful arrival could put us firmly on the 'glass half full' trajectory.

The games in January matter too. The cup is largely irrelevant - but a good performance and avoiding a big defeat to Arsenal could be a morale boost. A thrashing on the telly could drain optimism and leave us on a downer. Then there's the Sheep to come too - and we all now what an outsized influence those games can have on the positivity at the club - again in either direction. 

Barnsley (home) and Cardiff (away), meanwhile, are games that contenders find a way to win and sides that can't cope with expectation and pressure find a way to mess up. Cooper's early run was under the blissful freedom of zero expectation - something that has evaporated thanks to his success so far.

My gut says we're short of what's required to reach the top six - not least in terms of the time needed to build a side/club. But my head also says that a wide open Championship season such as this leaves open outcomes that should otherwise be fanciful.

At the start of the season, I said the range of possibilities for Forest were anything from 4th to 24th. After seven games, 4th was beginning to look daft - but Cooper's troopers have at least shown that I was right to have faith in the fact that, if everything clicked, there was talent at the club. 4th is probably still our upper ceiling and, while you'd like to think a relegation battle should be a distant memory, a slide into a sad lower third finish is still on the table too if we're not careful. 

We won't know which season ending we've selected at the end of January. But, come the end of the current campaign, we'll surely look back on this next month as being significant in deciding the outcome.

The mystery of 2021/22: Anything possible, for good or bad

Forest this season? Well, it could be anything really couldn't it? As Chris Hughton's Reds prepare to be sent to Coventry, it's perhaps no exaggeration to say that the full range of possibilities are open for the 2021/22 campaign - from promotion right down to relegation.

Youthful flair gives cause for optimism

If your glass is half full - and the cusp of the season is the rare occasion where this is commonplace - there are things to cling to ahead of the curtain raiser. Firstly, there are a couple of exciting young attacking talents waiting to be unleashed. Alex Mighten has had a taste of first team action and now looks ready to blossom. Brennan Johnson has matured nicely in the testing environment of League One and looks more than ready to step up. Both could and should start. Beyond them, the loan experience gained by the likes of Jordan Gabriel and Tyrese Fornah has raised hopes that squad depth could be offered by our rising stars - and that expensive loan signings can be targeted where they're most needed.

Then there's the prospect of a (cross everything) fully fit Joe Lolley and the chance for Lewis Grabban to make a fresh start and put a season of injuries and poor form behind him. The lack of impact from these two went a long way to explaining our paucity of goals last season. Finding their pre-Covid form would go a long way to sorting our biggest problems.

For now - and let's not jinx things - we've kept hold of Mighten and Joe Worrall despite Premier League interest and the squad is also shorn of some of its expensive chaff, bringing down an eye-wateringly high wage bill a tad. The bomb squad is diminishing and the young players are growing in stature.

Signings? Well, as we saw last season, they can be overrated. Too many additions makes it hard to build a team and we've got to stop our addiction to the signing sugar rush, as fans and as a club. The 2002/03 and 2010/11 play-off pushes came without a swathe of arrivals. Anyway, Ethan Horvath might well keep Brice Samba on his toes - and one or two additions might occur now that Premier League clubs are concluding their businesses, so it's not as if we can't attract new additions like, ahem, some other clubs.

✍️

Welcome to The Reds, Ethan Horvath 👊

🌳🔴 #NFFC

— Nottingham Forest FC ❤️ (@NFFC) July 13, 2021

Chris Hughton has had time with his squad and can bring all of his know-how and experience to bear in a wide-open league where every team has been circumspect in the transfer market. If this season becomes a case of 'making the best of what you've got', Hughton should be an asset.

If all that comes together, where could it end up? A well-drilled Hughton side with a solid base, bright young attacking talents and fit and firing key players could threaten the upper echelons of the table. Without additions - and the wait for these could go on throughout the month - there's a couple of key gaps (hello left back, my old friend) that could be a concern. Plus, even the most optimistic fan would have to accept that the relegated trio of Sheffield United, West Brom and Fulham begin a long way ahead in terms of playing talent and financial might. Add in a Bournemouth side who probably should've got their act together better last time out and you'd probably think the upper limit would be one of the last couple of play-off spots.

But, that's if everything clicks and goes well. Only those with the most Garibaldi-tinted of spectacles could ignore the fact that, well, that might well not happen. The half empty glass has to at least be contemplated.

The worst case scenario

Let's not forget that we really weren't far away from being one of the worst three teams in the division last season. We won the same number of games as bottom-of-the-table Sheffield Wednesday and scored fewer goals than all of the three clubs that fell through the dreaded trap door.

At face value, we've made no signings to improve that shot-shy team. We've also lost the passing maestro who got us playing - although keep everything crossed that James Garner could return for an encore - and have no fit senior full backs (or at least none that we actually want at the club). The likes of Gabriel, Mbe Soh and Richardson might grow into those roles - or they might find that the Championship is a baptism of fire and struggle to handle the division's deadliest wingers. Our strength last season was our defence - but there is a chance that the quartet fielded by Hughton this time around won't be quite as solid and that even that asset is lessened.

Lewis Grabban will turn 34 in January and might well not be able to hit the heights of two seasons ago - and Lyle Taylor's showings last campaign were distinctly disappointing. Without a significant sale, it seems unlikely that we'll be able to add to our attacking arsenal and there are definitely question marks around the men leading the line. Behind them, inexperienced attackers might find the Championship a tough environment in which to flourish - and we'll need to be patient while the potential of Johnson and Mighten translates into performances.

A Covid-hit pre-season reduced the match practice Hughton was able to have - while the threat of bigger bids for Brennan Johnson or Joe Worrall will only go away once the window shuts. The club do seem to have targets in mind if the money comes in - but losing a key player in the early weeks of the campaign could be de-stabilising, especially if it's Worrall and the first choice defence is significantly weakened.

Hughton might be experienced - but he's up against other wily old heads in the likes of Mick McCarthy, Nigel Pearson, Gary Rowett and old Colin. Yes, there are few great teams at this level but there are lots of streetwise solid sides that could threaten if things go their way. Not only does Hughton have a lot of competition, he'll also be under big pressure to deliver. A slow start and some dull performances and he'd soon be facing that all-too-familiar managerial pressure narrative. There's been lots of positive talk from the off-the-field appointments, but we'll soon see if that's really just PR if and when the chips are down.

So, if rookie full backs are exposed, a stodgy midfield fails to find flair and the strike force continues last season's 'form', you have to accept that rock bottom for this squad could well be in the bottom three.

Yeah, I know, not exactly what you want to hear in a pre-season preview. But it's worth contemplating that 4th right through to 24th are possible. The bottom three relies on a lot going wrong, yes, but only as much as the play-offs rely on an awful lot going right. The answer will, probably, lie somewhere in the middle of those two extremes. How close to 'half full' and 'half empty' really does depend on how much the coaching staff can tap into the potential of our younger players, what happens next in the transfer market, the patience of the ownership, the performance of our rivals and, as ever, luck.