Half term report: Steve Cooper's big January begins early

Give us a chance lads. If you're going to have a season defining January, at least give us the opportunity to have a naff New Year countdown before kicking off, will you? In truth, the apparent departure of Djed Spence back to parent club Middlesbrough seemed as inevitable as Neil Warnock blaming the officials for a defeat. Yet, for news to come on New Year's Eve - and be sparked by a harsh Football League stance against Chris Wilder's men - was an unexpectedly early reminder of how big the next few weeks are.

It all seemed so simple after seven games didn't it? Six defeats and one draw meant the task ahead was clear. We were in a relegation battle and faced a long slog. I looked at teams bottom of the league after six games and found that in the last ten years four had been relegated and the average finishing position was 20th. So, it wasn't terminal, but it was interminable. A strong air of 'here we go again'.

Yet we're all aware by now that Steve Cooper's stunning start has changed the conversation. Up until the last two defeats, the ex Swansea-boss had top of the league form and a points tally that took us inexplicably to the edge of the top six. It's been said a lot elsewhere, I know, but it's worth heralding the massive turnaround in attitude, mentality and tactical flexibility Cooper has engineered. His refreshing mindset has permeated all levels of the club and led to a side that can actually attack and entertain after a descent into the doldrums of drabness. His reign has been one great celebratory fist pump that has roused us from a sullen slumber.

Steve Hodge on #nffc Head Coach Steve Cooper:

''He's brought this group together from being an unhappy group of mainly younger but some senior players to a group of players who never give up and seem happy with life at the moment and the results bear that out''. pic.twitter.com/6bZPd7K2yh

— BBC Nottingham Sport (@BBCRNS) December 30, 2021

All of a sudden, a season in which survival would be a success turned into something else. Not only that, but the lack of decent teams at this level even meant that the campaign almost posed an opportunity that would be too good to miss. Just when you think you can relax and enjoy it, there comes the looming pressure and angst that is as much of a fixture of following Forest as the whiff of dodgy burgers on Trent Bridge or the sound of Colin Fray saying 'nothing doing' on commentary.

But, where do we go from here? Can we capitalise on a crap league and ride the crest of a wave into the Promised Land - or will we slip away back towards that 'average finish of 20th' that was the best we could hope for in September?

The fact is, either really could happen and much depends on what happens in January.

If Spence is gone for good - and the picture is far from clear as I type - then he has to be replaced quickly. We'll miss the fact he brought an energy and dynamism to the full back spots that was on the Matty Cash spectrum. Given that the threat of his departure has been raised often you'd like to think Dane Murphy will have had a short list of lung-bursting full backs ready. This is the first window where we may be able to judge the American's influence over transfer strategy and, while shopping in January is a mug's game really, it's important that he can pull a rabbit or two out of the hat if we're to rediscover the momentum we had pre-Boro.

The negative version of January also sees one - or, whisper it quietly, both - of Joe Worrall and Brennan Johnson depart to the Premier League. The sums spoken about for Brennan so far are laughable (buzz off Brentford) - but there's nothing to say someone such as Newcastle might decide to panic buy a prospect or two just to show off their chequebook. Losing our most explosive attacking threat or an influential leader at the back would be a blow that would be difficult to recover from. Any new recruits in their place might take time to get up to speed or might just turn out to be inferior. If any club has learned that new players do not necessarily equal an improvement it's surely ours.

But, if we kept at least two of the three above? And if Dane's a smart shopper? And if Max Lowe can get fit? And if our rivals have their players poached instead? Well, then it could be a different story. 

In recent weeks we have seen there are a couple of gaps that need to be filled even with Spence, Johnson and Worrall at the club. We need quality, not quantity - and one decent attacking winger (left sided please Santa) and a striker would make a big difference. 

The rumoured arrival of Keinan Davis would be interesting - not least because Villa have stuck by him for a long while and have shown a belief in an ability that a cursory glance at his Wikipedia page can't do justice to. An injection of pace and power is certainly not to be sniffed at and would be an upgrade on Lyle Taylor's contribution. 

Cooper will know from 2019/20 with Swansea that an astute January addition can make a difference. His signing of Rhian Brewster on loan brought 11 goals in the second half of the season and catapulted his side into the play-offs (I forget who missed out). Indeed, in 2010/11 the same club drafted in Fabio Borini in March on loan and were propelled into the play-offs with him scoring six in eight starts (I forget who they beat over two legs). A similarly impactful arrival could put us firmly on the 'glass half full' trajectory.

The games in January matter too. The cup is largely irrelevant - but a good performance and avoiding a big defeat to Arsenal could be a morale boost. A thrashing on the telly could drain optimism and leave us on a downer. Then there's the Sheep to come too - and we all now what an outsized influence those games can have on the positivity at the club - again in either direction. 

Barnsley (home) and Cardiff (away), meanwhile, are games that contenders find a way to win and sides that can't cope with expectation and pressure find a way to mess up. Cooper's early run was under the blissful freedom of zero expectation - something that has evaporated thanks to his success so far.

My gut says we're short of what's required to reach the top six - not least in terms of the time needed to build a side/club. But my head also says that a wide open Championship season such as this leaves open outcomes that should otherwise be fanciful.

At the start of the season, I said the range of possibilities for Forest were anything from 4th to 24th. After seven games, 4th was beginning to look daft - but Cooper's troopers have at least shown that I was right to have faith in the fact that, if everything clicked, there was talent at the club. 4th is probably still our upper ceiling and, while you'd like to think a relegation battle should be a distant memory, a slide into a sad lower third finish is still on the table too if we're not careful. 

We won't know which season ending we've selected at the end of January. But, come the end of the current campaign, we'll surely look back on this next month as being significant in deciding the outcome.

The mystery of 2021/22: Anything possible, for good or bad

Forest this season? Well, it could be anything really couldn't it? As Chris Hughton's Reds prepare to be sent to Coventry, it's perhaps no exaggeration to say that the full range of possibilities are open for the 2021/22 campaign - from promotion right down to relegation.

Youthful flair gives cause for optimism

If your glass is half full - and the cusp of the season is the rare occasion where this is commonplace - there are things to cling to ahead of the curtain raiser. Firstly, there are a couple of exciting young attacking talents waiting to be unleashed. Alex Mighten has had a taste of first team action and now looks ready to blossom. Brennan Johnson has matured nicely in the testing environment of League One and looks more than ready to step up. Both could and should start. Beyond them, the loan experience gained by the likes of Jordan Gabriel and Tyrese Fornah has raised hopes that squad depth could be offered by our rising stars - and that expensive loan signings can be targeted where they're most needed.

Then there's the prospect of a (cross everything) fully fit Joe Lolley and the chance for Lewis Grabban to make a fresh start and put a season of injuries and poor form behind him. The lack of impact from these two went a long way to explaining our paucity of goals last season. Finding their pre-Covid form would go a long way to sorting our biggest problems.

For now - and let's not jinx things - we've kept hold of Mighten and Joe Worrall despite Premier League interest and the squad is also shorn of some of its expensive chaff, bringing down an eye-wateringly high wage bill a tad. The bomb squad is diminishing and the young players are growing in stature.

Signings? Well, as we saw last season, they can be overrated. Too many additions makes it hard to build a team and we've got to stop our addiction to the signing sugar rush, as fans and as a club. The 2002/03 and 2010/11 play-off pushes came without a swathe of arrivals. Anyway, Ethan Horvath might well keep Brice Samba on his toes - and one or two additions might occur now that Premier League clubs are concluding their businesses, so it's not as if we can't attract new additions like, ahem, some other clubs.

✍️

Welcome to The Reds, Ethan Horvath 👊

🌳🔴 #NFFC

— Nottingham Forest FC ❤️ (@NFFC) July 13, 2021

Chris Hughton has had time with his squad and can bring all of his know-how and experience to bear in a wide-open league where every team has been circumspect in the transfer market. If this season becomes a case of 'making the best of what you've got', Hughton should be an asset.

If all that comes together, where could it end up? A well-drilled Hughton side with a solid base, bright young attacking talents and fit and firing key players could threaten the upper echelons of the table. Without additions - and the wait for these could go on throughout the month - there's a couple of key gaps (hello left back, my old friend) that could be a concern. Plus, even the most optimistic fan would have to accept that the relegated trio of Sheffield United, West Brom and Fulham begin a long way ahead in terms of playing talent and financial might. Add in a Bournemouth side who probably should've got their act together better last time out and you'd probably think the upper limit would be one of the last couple of play-off spots.

But, that's if everything clicks and goes well. Only those with the most Garibaldi-tinted of spectacles could ignore the fact that, well, that might well not happen. The half empty glass has to at least be contemplated.

The worst case scenario

Let's not forget that we really weren't far away from being one of the worst three teams in the division last season. We won the same number of games as bottom-of-the-table Sheffield Wednesday and scored fewer goals than all of the three clubs that fell through the dreaded trap door.

At face value, we've made no signings to improve that shot-shy team. We've also lost the passing maestro who got us playing - although keep everything crossed that James Garner could return for an encore - and have no fit senior full backs (or at least none that we actually want at the club). The likes of Gabriel, Mbe Soh and Richardson might grow into those roles - or they might find that the Championship is a baptism of fire and struggle to handle the division's deadliest wingers. Our strength last season was our defence - but there is a chance that the quartet fielded by Hughton this time around won't be quite as solid and that even that asset is lessened.

Lewis Grabban will turn 34 in January and might well not be able to hit the heights of two seasons ago - and Lyle Taylor's showings last campaign were distinctly disappointing. Without a significant sale, it seems unlikely that we'll be able to add to our attacking arsenal and there are definitely question marks around the men leading the line. Behind them, inexperienced attackers might find the Championship a tough environment in which to flourish - and we'll need to be patient while the potential of Johnson and Mighten translates into performances.

A Covid-hit pre-season reduced the match practice Hughton was able to have - while the threat of bigger bids for Brennan Johnson or Joe Worrall will only go away once the window shuts. The club do seem to have targets in mind if the money comes in - but losing a key player in the early weeks of the campaign could be de-stabilising, especially if it's Worrall and the first choice defence is significantly weakened.

Hughton might be experienced - but he's up against other wily old heads in the likes of Mick McCarthy, Nigel Pearson, Gary Rowett and old Colin. Yes, there are few great teams at this level but there are lots of streetwise solid sides that could threaten if things go their way. Not only does Hughton have a lot of competition, he'll also be under big pressure to deliver. A slow start and some dull performances and he'd soon be facing that all-too-familiar managerial pressure narrative. There's been lots of positive talk from the off-the-field appointments, but we'll soon see if that's really just PR if and when the chips are down.

So, if rookie full backs are exposed, a stodgy midfield fails to find flair and the strike force continues last season's 'form', you have to accept that rock bottom for this squad could well be in the bottom three.

Yeah, I know, not exactly what you want to hear in a pre-season preview. But it's worth contemplating that 4th right through to 24th are possible. The bottom three relies on a lot going wrong, yes, but only as much as the play-offs rely on an awful lot going right. The answer will, probably, lie somewhere in the middle of those two extremes. How close to 'half full' and 'half empty' really does depend on how much the coaching staff can tap into the potential of our younger players, what happens next in the transfer market, the patience of the ownership, the performance of our rivals and, as ever, luck.

Scrappy New Year: Why Hughton's search for stability won't be pretty

Right now, Chris Hughton has the opposite problem to Sabri Lamouchi. The Frenchman had a clear first team - or at least a core of 14/15 players - but lacked the squad depth to provide variety or add fresh legs. It was, in my opinion, a big factor in why we faded away so badly. His successor has a squad...but is yet to properly forge a formidable team from it. We remain, in an attacking sense, a collection of individuals in need of a pattern and plan and, as a result, are finding goals hard to come by.

That perhaps shouldn't come as a surprise. Adding so many players in one mad splurge was always going to create a headache. Not least when it's unclear how much strategy went into the recruitment. Why, for example, do we have so many wide players who would prefer to start on the right and drift inside onto their left foot? Why a glut of muscular, obdurate midfielders and not enough creators? Why didn't we get a balance of youth and experience? 

Miserable 2020 form has continued

Yet, while it takes time to find a workable team out of the current crop of players, it's increasingly dawning on us all that survival in the Championship might well be the best we can hope for this season. Perhaps understandably, that's causing us all to get a bit grumpy. But I am worried that this grumpiness will lead us into another blind alley if we're not careful.

Let's not beat about the bush; the Hughton era has been disappointing. Four wins from 17 games have continued the form of a miserable 2020 (although, incidentally that's two more wins than a certain someone in their first 17 games). There hasn't really been a new manager bounce or honeymoon period and there have been some pretty terrible games in that run.

Some of the responsibility for recent results clearly lies with the new manager - but I'd say that's only a small fraction. While I can understand why people are disappointed, I'm frustrated at the depressingly familiar air to the critique of current matches.

The club's strategy encourages 'negative' football

I'm seeing a lot of talk, for example, about Chris Hughton's negativity as a manager. Now, don't get me wrong; he's definitely a cautious coach and that's been evident in his career so far. But we need to ask ourselves why we end up in the circular debate with managers. Why is it that Sabri Lamouchi, Martin O'Neill, Aitor Karanka and Mark Warburton were all accused of the same thing? I'm all for fair criticism but ask yourself - is it really Chris Hughton's negative tactics and team selection that are annoying you... or is it the club's broader (lack of) strategy?

We're forever getting sucked into the here and now. This team selection, the 'tactics' in this game, the next signing, the next manager. I'm absolutely guilty of this too. However we need to look at a few home truths. Nottingham Forest is not a football club that's geared towards producing free flowing, exciting teams. That comes from the very top. The goal for each of those managers is 'promotion yesterday'. Faced with an ambitious goal and an unrealistic time frame, all have decided that the circumstances require pragmatism. A solid side that can compete with the physical challenges of the Championship has been the aim - with the hope that a spot of individual brilliance from a couple of key attackers can get enough results. Do you want to have to watch another new face take a dozen games to come this same conclusion again? I don't.

An attractive side with a clear identity could take three seasons to build. Along the way there'd be some poor results, naive defeats to streetwise Warnock-style sides and the need for patience and support - especially for the team's creative players. We'd lose young talent along the way and have to invest wisely in replacements. The owners don't want to sit through all of that and wait for a Brentford/Swansea to emerge. Unfortunately their short termism has rubbed off on a significant portion of the fanbase too - and too many of us wouldn't be prepared to get behind a project like that.

Building from the back

So, we are where we are. And, in those circumstances, Chris Hughton is probably trying to do the right thing. He's building from the back and trying to patch up the leaky, error-ridden defensive displays that could easily take us to League One if we're not careful. Let's not forget that player sales, injuries and form have torn up much of the foundations Sabri established last season. He's also having to patch something together during a relentless schedule - and it's probably no wonder that the run of defeats ended when we stopped playing the division's best sides. 

Let's face it - most people's aversion to defensive football disappears if it starts to pick up results. Sabri's tactics weren't a problem when they earned wins over the likes of Fulham away or Leeds at home. The thing people hate most is 'losing football'.

If Hughton can get Scott McKenna fit, you'd think he'd land on a workable back four. But we're still not quite there. With the defence a concern, the balance in midfield has erred towards the defensive. I'd like to see something a bit more dynamic from this part of the pitch - but I'm not the person who will have to deal with the fallout when we get overrun and lose games. I'm also a little bit concerned that we're left with lots of similar central midfielders for whom creativity isn't a strong suit. Perhaps, for now, Hughton feels he's playing to his strengths in midfield (while trying to get something more from Cafu).

While the process of building firm foundations continues, we'll all have to expect stodgy, scruffy performances such as The Karanka Stalemate against Birmingham (aptly that has a ring of a duff Boxing Day film). 

𝘏𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘭𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵𝘴: 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝘃𝘀 𝗕𝗶𝗿𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴𝗵𝗮𝗺

The key moments from yesterday's draw at The City Ground ⚽️ #NFFC pic.twitter.com/PRAHQm9jCs

— Nottingham Forest FC (@NFFC) December 27, 2020

Teams that go down lose lots of those games, teams that go up win them.

Yet teams that survive and begin moving in the right direction do have to find the quality to edge enough of those messy games at home - especially if they aren't to put undue pressure on themselves when faced with tricky trips to the likes of Stoke and Preston. 

By now, we'd all hoped that the ability to throw Lolley, Knockaert and Taylor on from the bench to win a game would be telling. Yet, there we are - still a squad without a team. While that situation stands - and while the bottom three is within touching distance - we're destined for a Scrappy New Year. 

Hughton, we have a problem

Are Forest better than last season? Right now, that's a tough question to answer. For me, too many people have rushed to proclaim that the answer to this is definitely yes - and in doing so are missing what a tricky job Chris Hughton actually has on his hands.

Of course, we all hope that the team will be better than the last campaign. It's also true that there's reason for optimism among the 14 faces that were snapped up during the summer shopping spree. Instead of relying on unproven players to make their mark from the bench or having a squad packed with out-of-favour faces, we've now got a batch of individuals who have the pedigree required to succeed in the Championship.

But the simple fact of signing good players isn't enough. We do have a better squad now - but it's now up to the new manager to translate that collection of individuals into a team that can be more successful than the 2019/20 vintage. 

And that's far from being a done deal. Matty Cash was the clear and deserved winner of the player of the year crown and it's not easy to just move on from losing your best performer. His energy and dynamism going forward had the power to change the course of a game and that has been sorely missed. His athleticism and determination at the back also shut the door on many a dangerous attack too and contributed to our clean sheet tally.

None of that is to criticise Cyrus Christie who seems a solid enough replacement. We're starting to show signs of playing to playing to his strengths too - and his excellent crossing ability looks an asset. But the blasé assumption that a team can easily get better without its best player grates on me slightly. 

It isn't just Cash either. Consider the spine of the side for Lamouchi's nearly men. Cash was the star man (running down the right, as per the song), but Ben Watson was the leader. The former Watford man orchestrated events on the pitch and made the deep midfield berth his own. His streetwise play undoubtedly helped us to turn tight games into victories and brought a bit of calm. Don't get me wrong, I accept that it was probably right to move on from Watson. It's certainly unlikely that he could keep up the pace at this level for too much longer. But we need to accept that his replacements won't necessarily be like-for-like and might require us to slightly alter the way we play. There's another blasé assumption that a team can ditch its leader - who started many attacks - and just get better.

Second behind Cash in the player of the season race was Lewis Grabban. The wispily bearded marksman became the first player to net 20 goals since the 2002/03 season. He did so despite often feeding on scraps for a counter-attacking team that didn't create an abundance of chances. Given that we only scored one more goal as a team than bottom of the league Hull, it was clear that we were over reliant on Lewis to deliver in the last campaign. This season, however, has been a struggle. Poor form and transfer speculation were followed by an injury, leaving the team shorn of its crucial focal point. 

Lyle Taylor looks a more-than-decent addition - and is starting to find his rhythm in Hughton's team. He was clearly a big part of the back-to-back victories before the international break and seems an excellent signing. But, again, expecting the side to get better without the man who was so integral to our fortunes last season is another lazy assumption that cannot go unchallenged. 

Missing the spine of Sabri's side

If midway through the last campaign you'd have said Forest would miss Cash, Watson and Grabban for a game you'd have been worried. Now add in the injury to Joe Worrall to the mix too and you've suddenly got a side in want of a new spine. Scott McKenna looks a smart acquisition - but it'd be nice to try him with Worrall rather than instead. Joe might've attracted some boo boys online for his injury time mistake against the Sheep - but that short-sightedness ignores the many other times that the academy graduate saved our bacon. He's also another vocal presence who could've helped new faces to bed in to the side.

Tiago Silva was also a key part of Sabri's seventh place side. I wasn't ever quite certain whether we got the best from him or found his ideal position - but he turned out in 47 league and cup fixtures and you can't argue that he wasn't another key cog. Again, the new additions should be able to fill his boots but, for now at least, we're still searching for a midfield formula that works and gives the right balance between solidity, energy and creativity. 

To my mind it does a disservice to Hughton not to reflect on the fact that many of the building blocks of last season have been taken out of the team. Remove a centre half, midfield general, star striker, marauding full back and versatile midfielder out of any first eleven and they'll struggle. There's been too much talk about confidence and play-off hangovers and not enough about this for my liking.

The starkest evidence of the rapid change to the team comes when comparing the recent dour Middlesbrough defeat to the Leeds home win - the high water mark of the Sabri Lamouchi regime. Just three players from the team that bested Biesla's boys in February - Brice Samba, Tobias Figueiredo and Sammy Ameobi - also started at the Riverside against Colin's mob. That's not ideal for a club that's supposed to be building on what was started last season.

Adding 14 signings might help in the medium-to-long term but in the short term it creates many selection headaches that will take weeks to fix. My non-scientific theory is it takes one game for every signing made to get close to knowing your ideal first XI...but that's not factoring in the disruption of a managerial change on top of all of that. 

I don't want to get too 'doom and gloom' about all of this - I think Hughton is probably ahead of schedule in terms of building a fresh side - but it's definitely worth us reflecting on the scale of what the manager has got to contend with. It's why we should accept that things might be a bit stodgy and patchy for a few more weeks yet while he tries to establish firmer foundations after a poor start to the season. If we don't accept this, we're in danger of expecting miracles. Again.

Sabri Lamouchi out, Chris Hughton in: Forest favour change again

18 words is all he got. And half an hour is all we got to mull it over. 

In the end, it's fair to say Sabri Lamouchi was a manager who conducted himself with a great deal more class and dignity than whoever issued the curt and joyless statement announcing his departure from the City Ground. When players who've registered a handful of appearances receive more warmth, it leaves a sour taste and doesn't paint the club in the best light. 

Nor, frankly, does the report in the Athletic of the club owner's apparent actions after the Barnsley League Cup game. These events appear to have undermined the former Rennes boss and really can't have helped to lift spirits at a club still shellshocked by the all-too-recent calamity of the past season's finale.

#NFFC can confirm that the contract of head coach Sabri Lamouchi has been terminated with immediate effect.

— Nottingham Forest FC (@NFFC) October 6, 2020

The popular Frenchman's departure tonight was a sad end to a tenure that offered so much promise. Perhaps his greatest failing was to offer a glimmer of hope that the club's short-term goals might be achievable. Now he's a man who failed to make the seemingly-impossible possible and has paid the price for being unable to reverse the rot once it set in. 

Even those of us who supported him have to accept, however, that one hell of a rot had set in - and it wasn't exactly a surprise to see him go in the end.

Chris Hughton - the best possible choice?

Forest may have been short of words to describe his departure - but the English language is short of words to describe the odd feelings this club has a habit of stirring. It's possible to be both disappointed with a poorly handled sacking and mightily impressed with the calibre of his replacement in one mixed-up bundle. 

Chris Hughton seems like the best possible choice in the circumstances - a smart manager with the experience, cool head and pragmatism needed to try to knit together a side from a squad that contains a fair few experienced heads. He's worked for demanding owners in the past, steered clubs to play-off and promotion campaigns and even (fanciful though it sounds from this far out) established clubs in the top flight after getting up. 

You also feel that his style might well suit the players at his disposal and avoid the need for too many more additions after a window in which 13 new faces have already checked in at the City Ground. A complete change of style - with a need for yet more purchases - wouldn't have been wise.

Chris Hughton appointed as manager #NFFC are delighted to announce the appointment of Chris Hughton as the club’s new manager.

— Nottingham Forest FC (@NFFC) October 6, 2020

It's probably a smart tactic to have the new man lined up right away when wielding the axe too - it does at least take the sting out of some of the criticism that might've been levelled at the club hierarchy for its role in the situation we're in.

Don't let the club off the hook

But let's not allow the moment to pass before making this point - the people at the top of the club need to reflect on their failings. They're just as culpable as the man they unceremoniously bundled out of the door and we won't move on unless they learn.

After the disastrous end to last season, the senior leadership had a decision to make - stick or twist. Instead, they tried both. They stuck by the manager in a bid to get some continuity and build on the highest league finish in nine years. They also decided to revamp the squad with the sort of volume of signings and departures you'd expect to have seen if they had actually sacked Sabri. Maybe they hoped to build on the foundations of last season and get a boost from freshening up the dressing room. It feels very much like a 'have your cake and eat it' strategy - and it didn't work. In the end we got the benefit of neither approach - getting simultaneously stuck in a rut and left with a situation in which it'll take some time for a best XI to emerge. Reports will say Sabri was 'backed by the addition of 13 new signings' - but they ought to reflect on the fact that he never really had chance to field some of those more than once, if at all. 

If a limp defeat to Barnsley in a cup competition we could've done without was enough to anger the owner, then perhaps the point of no return had been passed anyway? Throwing players at the problem and hoping something sticks is the sort of short termist folly that the previous regime was famous for. Is that really all we've got? Let's hope not.

Hughton has a great track record, but he could do without him and his players facing a rollicking over Zoom. Evangelos Marinakis might be used to getting his own way, but he has to face up to the fact that he's not in charge of a club that can naturally challenge for honours every season regardless. He can expect results yesterday if he likes, but he won't get them without being a bit smarter than that. I'm sure he knows an awful lot more than me about running a football club, but it's time he showed that he does.

To be fair, in Hughton the club have picked a manager to match their recruitment policy (or part of it anyway) - finding an experienced head who shouldn't need time to adjust to the nature of the league. He seems a popular choice with fans - and a popular figure in the game too. But, as ever with Forest managers, he needs time he doesn't really have to do two seasons work in one. He needs luck as well as skill to find a winning formula quickly. He also needs support - from the owners, the dressing room and us. I hope he gets it.

So, yes, I'm happy with Hughton. And, yes, I'm sad about Sabri. And disappointed with some shoddy communication while at the same time hopeful that things can improve. Like those early era Facebook statuses, with Forest 'it's complicated'. 

The difficult second album? Sabri set for another Championship challenge

This year’s fixture release had more than a whiff of ‘the end of Bullseye’ about it, didn’t it? With little prospect of actually going to games just yet, we’ve been presented with ‘what we could’ve won’ were there no pandemic. Instead of an inappropriate speedboat, we’re missing out on trips to QPR, Huddersfield and Blackburn.

Of course, the hipster argument is to shrug and say that the fixtures never matter. We’re going to play everyone twice, so why care which order the games come in? Well, that’s alright if you assume that being a football fan involves cool-headed logic. Doesn’t being a fan really involve getting slightly over-obsessed by the tiniest detail? We care about shirt collars, formations, songs, silly stats and when we’re going to Reading. It might be ‘sad’, but who cares? I normally enjoy scouring through the schedule to map out possible away days (and usually to moan that the best trips are on rubbish days). But, this time even I can see that there’s little point getting too invested into what amounts to little more than a set of TV listings at the moment.
 
The fixtures aren’t the only thing that isn’t normal, of course. Having the same manager for two seasons in a row is arguably more of a surprise than having games played behind closed doors. Yet, here we are, on the cusp of a second season of Sabri as the Frenchman looks to wipe away memories of the catastrophic collapse at the end of 2019/20.

Transfer trio offer positive signs

 

The signs so far have been positive. I thought it was right to stick by Lamouchi and build on the foundations established last season – not least with such a short break between the two campaigns. Even if we’d wanted to do something drastic, it really wasn’t the right moment. We’ve recruited quickly – and smartly – to sign three free transfers to help too. In Jack Colback, Tyler Blackett and Lyle Taylor, we’ve captured experienced players with a proven record who will fight for first team roles and should add much-needed depth to the core group of potential starters. I won’t profess to know too much about the backroom appointments – but hopefully these have also been recruited in a bid to give extra support to a manager who has earned it.
 
This year has to be about evolution, not revolution. Signings also have to be about quality and not quantity and the work on the training ground needs to build on the good things about last season. This time last year, we were pondering a lot of unknowns. The manager proved himself worthy of more time while the likes of Brice Samba, Samba Sow, Yuri Ribeiro and Sammy Ameobi became established in the first team core – leaving us needing a couple of additions and depth, rather than scrabbling around trying to build again from scratch.

Not good enough at home

 

Chief among those, for me, is finding a plan to play at home. When the onus was on us to play on the front foot last season – and when there was an expectation to perform – we underwhelmed. We were, as I noted in the Famous Club’s post mortem, the division’s third best away team – based on points earned – but only the 13^th best at home. Indeed, we mustered five fewer points at home than in the 2016/17 season, when we only survived on the final day of the season. A little more creativity and flair in midfield seem key to this.
 
Some of the challenges awaiting Sabri and co seem straightforward to fix. We clearly needed better options from the bench to change a game – and a deeper squad capable of fitting into different formations against different opposition. For whatever reason, the likes of Alfa Semedo, Adama Diakhaby, John Bostock and Rafa Mir were never really able to offer a meaningful contribution on a consistent basis. The lack of options in the squad also meant we became over-reliant on a small core of first teamers who subsequently suffered from burn out as the long season wore on. It was abundantly clear we needed more firepower to support Grabban, fresh legs in the middle and a left footed defender to play three at the back if needed. With all of those secured, a number 10 and a winger are surely next on the radar.
 
The noises coming out of the club suggest the hierarchy accepts that some of the recruitment hasn’t quite been good enough and are keen to put that right. It is, however, important that we recognise that signings aren’t everything. Bristol City, for example, splashed the cash on Nakhi Wells in January and saw their promotion push fade away. We could easily have spent big in the mid-season window on decent players and still missed out and shouldn’t allow ourselves to believe this was the one simple answer to our problems. It’s crucial to both continue to blood youngsters and to coach the existing squad to improve. Who, for example, could be this year’s Matty Cash and take their game up a level? Ryan Yates? Alex Mighten? Brennan Johnson? With an eye-wateringly high wage bill and little FFP wriggle room, we have to find some of the missing pieces to the puzzle from within.

Changing the mentality

 

Yet, while it’s relatively straightforward to pinpoint the gaps in the team and squad, other issues might be less simple to resolve. The mentality of the players and their ability to perform under pressure has been questioned long before Sabri Lamouchi came to the club and remains so. The Stoke debacle only added to the sense that, when the chips are down, we struggle to cope. Even Lamouchi himself raised the fact that people had mentioned ‘typical Forest’ when we blew chances to cement a top six spot ahead of that last game. Which of us fans can truly say they’ve not thought ‘here we go again’ when we’ve conceded a goal or had a set back during a season. All too often that spills into moans and groans in the stadium or petulant comments to players on social media. Thanks to years of underperformance, we’re all stuck in a rut and need to get out of it. Last season offered both the hope that we were moving on from the mediocre days of recent times – and also proof for the pessimists that we’d somehow always find a way to mess things up. 
 
The end of season disaster could, if handled well, prove a powerful motivating message. The players could go out on a mission to put that behind them and go one better this time around. Yet, there’s also the chance that it could go the other way and be a millstone around our neck. You feel the manager, in particular, needs an early sign that the next campaign will be more a case of the former than the latter if he’s to retain the support of the ownership going forward – and keep sceptics at bay.

The challenge of the Championship

 

It’s hard, too, to know what to expect from our rivals. It’s been a long-held view of mine that the Championship is best seen as one big mid table. There’s so little gap in quality between top and bottom – and almost all of the teams at this level will harbour some sort of ambition to challenge at the top end of the table. Michael O’Neill’s Stoke – our final day nemeses – might well be on course to get themselves in the mix this time around, while I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mark Robins’ Coventry side continue their momentum after an excellent League One campaign. Those are two hunches of mine – but there’s a case to be made for most of the rest too. A truncated campaign, with some particularly crowded months (eight games in December, six in February) make the campaign seem tougher than ever to predict. Stamina, motivation and luck will all be needed – on top of skill, consistency and mentality – in a gruelling looking schedule.
 
It’s easy to fall into the sort of smug arrogance that other fans accuse of us of when looking ahead to 2020/21. While Watford and Bournemouth might not appear to be clubs of the stature of Leeds, West Brom or Fulham, we have to face up to the fact that they’ve both been run a lot better than us in recent years and shouldn’t be underestimated – especially not with parachute payments in their back pockets. Some have argued that ‘we’ll never have a better chance’ – but that’s based on judgements of our rivals that are to tricky to make before a ball is kicked and partly on ‘names’. 

Cash to go?

 

There is also, of course, an elephant in the room. A high profile departure is still likely during this window. You have to feel we’ve seen the last of Matty Cash in a Forest shirt and Joe Worrall might also find his way to the Premier League too. Like it or not, the way we’ve seemed to have approached the FFP challenge is to rely on players sales to plug a gap in the finances. We have to hope that a bidding war among top flight clubs can at least ensure we get a fair price for 2019/20’s deserved player of the year. We need a plan in place for how to plug the gaps if they go – and have to hope that we’re not stuck with a long-running and disruptive saga that goes to the last hour of the window.
 
There was – understandably – a lot of doom and gloom when the season ended. It felt like a missed opportunity and another play-off debacle to add to the Sheffield United, Yeovil and Blackpool list. Yet, while the manner of the failure was crushing, the truth was surely that we weren’t quite good enough to go up. Both teams that contested the final seemed a level above us – and we’d have needed an almighty flurry of transfer activity if we’d somehow managed to sneak through. Clearly, it would’ve been better to miss out in the play-offs with pride intact, but let’s not pretend that was a golden chance to go up with a side ready to strut its stuff in the top flight.
 
It’s also worth reflecting on the fact that, despite our understanding of ‘typical Forest’, end of season disasters haven’t always led to problems in the following campaign. We probably fear that a good side will be ‘dismantled’ because the Paul Hart side drifted apart after the Sheffield United play-off collapse. Yet the season after the Yeovil play-off shambles? We were promoted back to the Championship. After the Blackpool humbling? Another play-off campaign. I’m not saying we’ll definitely bounce back strongly next season – but there’s no reason to assume the worst automatically. We’re not ‘cursed’, we just haven’t quite yet been good enough.
 
Sabri’s second season should be a fascinating one. Let’s hope it end up being out-of-the-ordinary because of what’s achieved as much as for how it’s impacted by the pandemic. 

 

 

 

Forest this season? No-one knows

The Championship is famously a league of 'known unknowns'* - an unpredictable battle between flawed combatants whose dreams are often bigger than their talents. Forest's situation, therefore, is pretty fitting. The outcome of the 2019/20 campaign rests on a series of known unknowns of our own - factors that make a mockery of the prediction game and that none of us can be sure of.

Will Sabri Lamouchi flourish in English football? Will he cope with the 'win or else' pressure at the City Ground? Can he impose his style on the squad? Can our signings hit the ground running - especially those jetting in from other leagues? Will he be able to hit on a settled side in spite of a big squad? Will we have luck when it comes to injuries of key players?

There are probably more questions - but those six unanswerable conundrums show why it's impossible to be certain how we'll do this campaign. Only time will tell, yet it's quite strange that people who've never watched Lamouchi sides in action for a sustained period or ever seen more than a YouTube package of Rafa Mir or Tiago Silva are able to be certain in their opinions.  

My biggest gripe this summer has been the scale of the change needed. Getting 12 players in is, in part at least, a sign of failure. A team with serious hopes of mounting a promotion challenge this campaign really shouldn't need such surgery. The more players you sign, the more time you need to knit it all together and the longer it'll take to understand the best formula. This has been a continuation of a policy that has brought in 52 players in the last five windows (counting summers and Januarys). 'Throw a load of players in and hope something sticks' seems more like wishful thinking than anything worthy of the name 'strategy'.

Once again, we're asking a manager to squeeze 2-3 years work into one. But, once again, we've changed the man at the helm and a new manager was always going to want a fresh start - especially when the club has had no fixed style or plan. Savvy clubs seem to recruit a manager to fit their squad and style to get the most from their assets - we let a manager choose a new way every time and the bloated squad is a result of that. 

Still, that all sounds like I'm down in the dumps and I'm not. There's been a fair bit of negativity around since the closure of the transfer window and I can understand that people feel we've left ourselves short of backup up front (especially given Grabban's fitness battles). Yet some of the reaction has been over the top. Given the constraints of FFP we were surely never going to get a second 'main' striker in the door. The forward line of Grabban flanked by Joe Lolley and Albert Adomah is (on paper at least) an upgrade on last season - and Sammy Ameobi seems a decent sub to cover any of that trio. Lolley and Adomah will have to get goals - as will the rest of the midfield - to supplement Grabban but, above all else, the wingers and the creative midfielders need to feed Lewis. You feel that if he doesn't get 20 goals it'll be as much their failure as his (injury notwithstanding).

The front three, Carvalho and the full backs should all have the makings of team that could challenge. The uncertainty over the defence and heart of the midfield - for now at least - means it's tricky to know if that framework will have a solid foundation to rely upon. These also happen to be the areas where it's difficult to hide if you're not up to speed (I'll never quite forget poor old Kyle Ebecilio disintegrating in front of our eyes). When people talk of the intensity and energy of the Championship, it's the battle here - 'earning the right to play' - that they're on about. Silva, Semedo, Bostock and Sow will be tested - as will whichever combination of central defenders end up being first choice (I can't help but feeling that the new manager wants his centre halves to be more comfortable on the ball than Benalouane).

Aro Muric might have had a nightmare debut, but he's been brought in to help with the team's style as much as anything else. He deserves a chance to put that behind him and show if he can make a difference and set the tone for a new way of playing that builds from the back. It's brave and it needs patience - something few involved with the club have shown in recent times. Having apparently courted Manchester City heavily, maybe the club's hierarchy will be keen to let this experiment play out a little?

I've always tried to see the positive with new managers. I did think that there was a chance that O'Neill could have given us a lift. Yet the club's subsequent recruitment policy probably proves that it was right to move to a head coach in the mould of Lamouchi. If we're going to shop overseas and put together a squad of assorted players for a manager to try to knit together then it's clearly more a job for someone like Sabri. Whether you liked O'Neill or not, his sacking can be seen as a failure of the current regime to still properly 'get' the Championship. He was another short term fix for a division that hasn't rewarded our short termism - another man asked to work miracles who proved unable to do so.

Keeping a manager for a season would be nice - but so too would replacing one manager with another who is willing and able to work with his predecessor's blueprint. Signing another 20 players in the next two windows will be as much of a sign of failure as the presence of yet another manager in the hot seat.

Yet let's not dwell on the inevitable 'manager pressure' narrative yet. We've got an exciting front line, some intriguing new acquisitions (yes, I'm guilty of watching too many Bostock through balls on YouTube) and we're not stuck with Matt Mills and Michael Mancienne at the back, whoever ends up playing there. I've got no idea where and how we'll end up - no-one truthfully does. Let's at least try to enjoy it for a bit though. 

*With apologies to Donald Rumsfeld. And to everyone reading this for a dated and probably irrelevant cultural reference.