Watford, window, Welshman, tenure, tickets and targets

The FA Cup dream is over, Dougie has made it to a year in charge and the transfer window has, as cliché would have it, slammed shut. Here's my two penneth on events on Trentside..

• Saturday's defeat at home to Watford felt cruel. While we might have ceded territory to the Premier League visitors for periods of the game, we actually held our own pretty well against a side that had made fewer changes in personnel than us. Two moments in the game - one at the end of each half - proved decisive. Jamie Ward missed a golden chance on the stroke of half time and Kelvin Wilson - otherwise pretty solid considering he's our 4th choice centre half these days - gifted a goal to one of the top flight's most prolific marksmen as the final whistle approached. Both moments formed one harsh lesson in the need to be clinical in both boxes against quality opposition.
  
• The 24,000-plus crowd was pleasing to see, especially after sluggish home attendances this season. It's a testament to the club's pricing policy for this game, which is in marked contrast to some of the extortionate figures rip-off merchants try to fleece fans for when it comes to league games. Leeds United, for example, should be thoroughly ashamed for asking for a whopping £37 from the travelling Trickies on Saturday.
  
• No mention of the Watford game could be complete without some praise for David Vaughan. For me he was the stand out player on the whole pitch. Whether it was his physical battle with Troy Deeney or his calm, controlled passing in the middle of the park, the Welshman oozed class and continued his case for the player of the season crown.
  
• You have to wonder, too, whether Dougie would've wanted a replay. If a trip to Vicarage Road had been sandwiched in between the Leeds away and Huddersfield home games then it's likely that we'd have fielded a pretty weak side and taken a beating.

• Why do people allow themselves to get sucked into the transfer deadline day hype? Especially when the club is in an embargo and too far from the top six to realistically be thinking of promotion. Yes we could do with a better striker on the books while Britt is out but it would have been tough to get in a high-class addition who could come in and hit the ground running.
  
• The biggest issue yesterday was not that we didn't get a striker but that, once again, the club appeared to be in administrative chaos. Someone ought to have spotted the issue over the termination of Kyle Ebecilio's loan deal before the window even opened, not at the last minute when it seriously hampered Freedman's purchasing power. It appears that even though he has now gone we might be left paying part of his wages. Paying a player to be at one club on loan from another is a stupid situation to be in at the best of times, let alone when every penny counts under an embargo. It's this sort of mis-management that has to be stamped out before we emerge from the embargo and try to start spending again.
  
• Not only that but yesterday we also found out that the club is still paying Billy Davies, roughly two years after he was sacked. Couple that with the fact that we had to come to agreements with Djamel Abdoun and Radi Majewski to leave earlier this year and there's been an awful lot of money spent this season on people who aren't even offering the club any service.
  
• To be honest, if missing out on a striker leaves Tyler Walker more chance to develop and offers other youth teamers a window of opportunity to get on the bench then I'll be happy. Dexter's performance on Saturday showed that he struggles to lead the line for 90 minutes, it's just a shame Tyler wasn't brought on to replace him. Why train up other teams' kids when we can hone the skills of our own? Especially if loanees end up being as disappointing as Chuba Akpom last season.
  
• We shouldn't forget that this January window has seen the arrival of Bojan Jokic and Gary Gardner. Both were excellent bits of business for the manager and plug two gaps in the squad left by injuries - one known in Daniel Pinillos and one unknown in Henri Lansbury. Thank goodness we got those two signed up.
  
• Monday's transfer window fell on the one-year anniversary of Dougie Freedman's appointment in the City Ground hotseat. Not many would've thought he'd have lasted 12 months given the way we have wielded the axe in recent seasons. In tough times, he's done a decent job, weathering the dual storms of a transfer embargo and long-term injuries to his best players. He's sensibly built from the back to set in place some solid foundations while showing the sort of business brain that is badly needed in a club otherwise bereft of strategy. He's the right man for these times and has earned some praise. If he's still here this time next year then you feel that will be a good sign that we're moving forward.

VIDEO: Dougie Freedman celebrates 1 year in charge at #nffc today. Steve Hodge assesses those first 12 months.. pic.twitter.com/6xHQxyzzKw

— BBC Nottingham Sport (@BBCRNS) February 1, 2016

• Dougie's tenure made it to the one-year mark at the same time as reaching the 50 game milestone. Of those 50 games, he's won 17, drawn 16 and lost 17. Double all of those numbers and you get his record with Bolton. Spooky. 32 wins in 91 games at Palace is pretty much the same win percentage too. I'm never a fan of judging a manager on the win percentage alone as this stat lacks meaning without context but the similarity across all three clubs is worth noting.
  
• So, where does this leave the season? On Dougie's current win/loss/draw ratio we could expect roughly 6 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats. I make that 62 points, which would be 3 more than last season and would have earned us an 11th place finish last time around. The play offs? Taking an average of the points total of the last five seasons, achieving sixth place would need an unlikely 74 points. That would mean 35 points from the last 17 games, meaning we'd need 10/11 wins and could afford a maximum of 2/3 losses. Given that Hull, Burnley, Ipswich and D**by all await on the road, it looks a long way of what we're capable of at this stage of our side's development.
  
• It'd be nice to aim higher than 6 wins, but I think it's more important that, irrespective of the points tally, we finish the season in a positive manner. If we end up with the foundations of a good side (De Vries, Lichaj, Pinillos, Mills, Mancienne, Vaughan, Lansbury, Osborn, Burke, Assombalonga, Ward from what we should have available so far) and experience for our young players then it'll be job done for this campaign, with just 2/3 key signings to find if/when the embargo is lifted.