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Thursday, 19 November 2020

Hughton, we have a problem

Are Forest better than last season? Right now, that's a tough question to answer. For me, too many people have rushed to proclaim that the answer to this is definitely yes - and in doing so are missing what a tricky job Chris Hughton actually has on his hands.


Of course, we all hope that the team will be better than the last campaign. It's also true that there's reason for optimism among the 14 faces that were snapped up during the summer shopping spree. Instead of relying on unproven players to make their mark from the bench or having a squad packed with out-of-favour faces, we've now got a batch of individuals who have the pedigree required to succeed in the Championship.

But the simple fact of signing good players isn't enough. We do have a better squad now - but it's now up to the new manager to translate that collection of individuals into a team that can be more successful than the 2019/20 vintage. 

And that's far from being a done deal. Matty Cash was the clear and deserved winner of the player of the year crown and it's not easy to just move on from losing your best performer. His energy and dynamism going forward had the power to change the course of a game and that has been sorely missed. His athleticism and determination at the back also shut the door on many a dangerous attack too and contributed to our clean sheet tally.

None of that is to criticise Cyrus Christie who seems a solid enough replacement. We're starting to show signs of playing to playing to his strengths too - and his excellent crossing ability looks an asset. But the blasé assumption that a team can easily get better without its best player grates on me slightly. 

It isn't just Cash either. Consider the spine of the side for Lamouchi's nearly men. Cash was the star man (running down the right, as per the song), but Ben Watson was the leader. The former Watford man orchestrated events on the pitch and made the deep midfield berth his own. His streetwise play undoubtedly helped us to turn tight games into victories and brought a bit of calm. Don't get me wrong, I accept that it was probably right to move on from Watson. It's certainly unlikely that he could keep up the pace at this level for too much longer. But we need to accept that his replacements won't necessarily be like-for-like and might require us to slightly alter the way we play. There's another blasé assumption that a team can ditch its leader - who started many attacks - and just get better.

Second behind Cash in the player of the season race was Lewis Grabban. The wispily bearded marksman became the first player to net 20 goals since the 2002/03 season. He did so despite often feeding on scraps for a counter-attacking team that didn't create an abundance of chances. Given that we only scored one more goal as a team than bottom of the league Hull, it was clear that we were over reliant on Lewis to deliver in the last campaign. This season, however, has been a struggle. Poor form and transfer speculation were followed by an injury, leaving the team shorn of its crucial focal point. 

Lyle Taylor looks a more-than-decent addition - and is starting to find his rhythm in Hughton's team. He was clearly a big part of the back-to-back victories before the international break and seems an excellent signing. But, again, expecting the side to get better without the man who was so integral to our fortunes last season is another lazy assumption that cannot go unchallenged. 

Missing the spine of Sabri's side

If midway through the last campaign you'd have said Forest would miss Cash, Watson and Grabban for a game you'd have been worried. Now add in the injury to Joe Worrall to the mix too and you've suddenly got a side in want of a new spine. Scott McKenna looks a smart acquisition - but it'd be nice to try him with Worrall rather than instead. Joe might've attracted some boo boys online for his injury time mistake against the Sheep - but that short-sightedness ignores the many other times that the academy graduate saved our bacon. He's also another vocal presence who could've helped new faces to bed in to the side.

Tiago Silva was also a key part of Sabri's seventh place side. I wasn't ever quite certain whether we got the best from him or found his ideal position - but he turned out in 47 league and cup fixtures and you can't argue that he wasn't another key cog. Again, the new additions should be able to fill his boots but, for now at least, we're still searching for a midfield formula that works and gives the right balance between solidity, energy and creativity. 

To my mind it does a disservice to Hughton not to reflect on the fact that many of the building blocks of last season have been taken out of the team. Remove a centre half, midfield general, star striker, marauding full back and versatile midfielder out of any first eleven and they'll struggle. There's been too much talk about confidence and play-off hangovers and not enough about this for my liking.

The starkest evidence of the rapid change to the team comes when comparing the recent dour Middlesbrough defeat to the Leeds home win - the high water mark of the Sabri Lamouchi regime. Just three players from the team that bested Biesla's boys in February - Brice Samba, Tobias Figueiredo and Sammy Ameobi - also started at the Riverside against Colin's mob. That's not ideal for a club that's supposed to be building on what was started last season.


Adding 14 signings might help in the medium-to-long term but in the short term it creates many selection headaches that will take weeks to fix. My non-scientific theory is it takes one game for every signing made to get close to knowing your ideal first XI...but that's not factoring in the disruption of a managerial change on top of all of that. 

I don't want to get too 'doom and gloom' about all of this - I think Hughton is probably ahead of schedule in terms of building a fresh side - but it's definitely worth us reflecting on the scale of what the manager has got to contend with. It's why we should accept that things might be a bit stodgy and patchy for a few more weeks yet while he tries to establish firmer foundations after a poor start to the season. If we don't accept this, we're in danger of expecting miracles. Again.

2 comments:

  1. I'd be interested to know who you think can replace Silva's role in midfield, as none of our additions - with the possible exception of Freeman (who has tailed off massively) - are capable.
    Completely understand about having to alter the way we play without Watson - but stuffing the squad with defensive midfielders (Colback, Sow, Cafu, Arter, and Bachirou) and hoping Yates' dynamism will do the trick isn't the answer

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  2. Thanks Ben. It feels like Hughton thinks Cafu could fill that berth? I'd expected him to be another defensive option so it'd be a nice surprise if he can step up. Thought it was telling to see the Sky Sports stat that showed Silva created the highest number of chances last season. As you say, the current approach doesn't have enough of that to be the right balance.

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