Is history repeating itself at Forest? If so, which bit?

They say history repeats itself. But the trouble with trying to learn the lessons of history is that you never know which bits are relevant until it’s too late.

Today, Paul Taylor pointed out in the Post in black and white how patience was required when Brian Clough first walked through the door at the City Ground. I’ve written for Seat Pitch before on how these days – and with our current owner – you doubt Clough would have been given the chance to make his miracle come true.

Yet, while the Clough example might show the benefit that could be had from a little patience no-one is suggesting Freedman could pull off anything remotely close to the heroics of Old Big ‘Ead. There’s a reason for the word ‘miracle’ in the film title after all.

I’m torn between two more recent – and perhaps more relevant – chapters in Forest’s past when searching for evidence of what should be done next.

Is this season reminiscent of Paul Hart’s first campaign in charge in 2001/02? Dogged by financial problems (FFP may be different but is also restrictive in the transfer market) Hart tried to rebuild after the failure of David Pl**.

Hart’s side struggled for goals with just 12 wins, 18 draws and 16 defeats. The struggle was particularly marked after the turn of the year when, thanks to a ridiculous bonus structure in Stern John’s contract, Hart was forced to offload the 14-goal frontman.

The difference now is that Dougie Freedman is robbed of his top scorer – a better player in Britt Assombalonga – through injury. But, he’s without him nevertheless.

In fact, after the start of 2002, Hart’s men won just 3 of 20 league and cup games, scoring just 19 goals and losing nine times. Sound like a familiar run of form? Dougie has 3 wins in his last 22 league games.

Through circumstance Hart was forced to turn to youth, a policy that it appeared our embargo might cause in 2015/16. The blossoming talents of David Prutton, Michael Dawson, Andy Reid and Gareth Williams brought hope amid the gloom. They learned from the experience and came back stronger to form the backbone of the 2002/3 play-off push.

But what was the lesson of that season? Well, this was a case of patience being the order of the day. Such was the financial situation – and the very real threat of administration had Jermaine Jenas not been offloaded to Newcastle – that Hart did well to steady the ship and bring his kids through. After the storm was weathered we went on to turn on the style in a memorable campaign.

So, if we are to follow this blueprint, you might draw two lessons: stick with Freedman but do more to integrate and develop the kids at the expense of loan rangers.

To be fair to Freedman, this current crop of youngsters aren’t as good as those of 14 years ago – but if we’re being blunt the likes of Walker, Osborn, Grant and Oliver Burke might as well be used ahead of O’Grady, Trotter etc.

But, what of another side from the not-too-distant past? When Colin Calderwood brought us back to the Championship in 2008 there was a great deal of excitement after the grim struggles in League One.

Yet Calderwood’s charges displayed a worrying resemblance to Freedman’s current crop in a couple of respects: they continually ‘played well and lost’ and were often outdone by more streetwise sides with a greater degree of Championship ‘nous’.

That lack of ‘nous’ was arguably what cost us better results against Hull, Middlesbrough, Ipswich, Bolton and Huddersfield as Freedman’s ‘nearly but not quite’ narrative played out all too often.

Calderwood won four of 25 games and lost 12, including a Boxing Day battering by Doncaster that cost the Scot his job.

If Calderwood’s side is the better parallel with this season then we all know what the remedy was that time.

Now, before you think I’ve lost it completely don’t worry. I’m not calling for the return of Billy Davies. I’m really not. But it’s hard to deny that the change of management worked on that occasion. Davies dragged us up to the standard required for Championship football, adding a harder edge and that much-needed ‘nous’.

Perhaps, if this is the analogy you prefer then we do need a leader who can add that quality to the current line-up?

Of course, no two teams or eras are exactly the same. I think the Hart and Calderwood sides were similar but there are clearly differences.

Maybe the lesson comes not from within the club but from others in the division? Chris Hughton’s Brighton, Steve Clarke’s Reading (in the league at least) and Russell Slade’s Cardiff all struggled last term but are thriving now that their managers have had time to build their sides.

The problem with looking backwards is that is allows us the one thing we don’t have in the present – hindsight. Whether Hart’s side, Calderwood’s team, the early days of Clough or another club enitely offers us a salient lesson or two probably depends on how you view Freedman and the current set up.

One thing is for certain – Freedman will soon need a result or two to avoid this being the end of yet another managerial chapter at the City Ground.

New era needs new approach

After a summer of biting my tongue I'm back on the blog again and it's a familiar theme at Forest at the moment isn't it? We're in a transfer window and we're not really signing anyone... Shouldn't be surprised really should we? In fact I'm sure I've posted on this before - I could just copy and paste. We've still not even got a left back.

It's a pretty important summer on Trentside. The board took the decision to remove Billy Davies from the helm and install Steve McClaren and I shouldn't really let this moment pass by remarking on the excellent job the fiery Scot did at the City Ground.

Under Colin Calderwood we came up from League One and played some pretty football, but lacked nous and bite and were bullied into the relegation positions. Billy made us much more streetwise and built the framework for a top six side/squad and for that we should be eternally grateful. His home record was nothing short of astounding and the football we played at times was very good, especially in his first full season.

I feared when he arrived that Billy was the type of character that would find it all too easy to fall out with anyone and everyone he came into contact with. To an extent that was true, but not until he'd galvanised the club and made it back into a Championship outfit.

I liked Billy. He was cheeky, aggressive (you can't be a shrinking violet in this league), canny and passionate. Perhaps he sometimes didn't affect games enough with substitutions (there were often three used and not often enough a game changing outcome from that) and perhaps he was too confrontational in his attitude to signings. Still, I'm grateful for the job he did here and several games (West Brom away, Newc at home, Leicester at home from last season and Derby at home this year in particular) will live a long while in the memory.

He's replaced with Steve McClaren, a manager who has almost as much baggage as this club. The thing is while people from afar just associate us with the European Cups, Brian Clough and nothing else, people also somewhat unfairly only focus on Steve's England reign and dodgy Dutch accent.

The fact is I reckon any English born manager you'd care to name would struggle in the national hotseat. Yeah McClaren didn't cover himself in glory but you reckon Allardyce, Redknapp, Pulis for example would do better? I'm not saying he's necessarily better than those three, simply that I don't think they'd have done much better. It' too easy to blame a hapless manager for England's woes at a national level but then again that's another blog.

When it comes to our new gaffer we should focus on his successful stint as assistant manager of 'them', Man Utd and as boss at Middlesbrough and Fc Twente. He went to Wolfsburg at the wrong time - just after they surprisingly won the title.

People in the game seem able to look beyond the "Wally with the Brolly" headlines and reckon he's a good coach and manager. He should be a good capture at this level.

The club has been decisive and bold by making his appointment, but they must follow that up with similar intent in the transfer market.

From the squad that went into the run-in last time around we're short of Kelvin Wilson (who was, albeit, mysteriously injured), Nathan Tyson, Robert Earnshaw, Paul McKenna, Dele Adebola, Julian Bennett and loanees Paul Konchesky and Kris Boyd. Other than Earnshaw (who struggled with injury last season) I can't say as though I'm particularly gutted at any of those going but the fact remains that we're now donw to the bare bones when it comes to squad numbers. The still-trying-to-be-positive side of me suggests that the decks have been cleared and wage bill freed for some good McClaren signings, the cynic says we've left ourselves an awful lot to do to plug the gaps.

Th sole capture so far has, at least, been encouraging. I always loved watching Andy Reid play for us, he was absolutely superb in the Paul Hart play-off side and, when I've seen him, hasn't exactly disgraced himself in the division above. If we've replaced Tyson with Reid then surely that's an improvement? He's also a free transfer so an absolute bargain.

The question now is who/what next? There were lots of positive noises when McClaren first came, but last week that gave way to the first signs of frustration.

As far as I'm aware he still hasn't been able to get his backroom team in place (the Calderwood saga rumbles on) and seems acutely aware of the need to get at least a couple more in place before we begin playing pre-season friendlies.

There have been lots of names flying around the internet rumour mill, and some of those are exactly the sort of quality you'd hope McClaren can attract. The trouble is if we follow the blueprint of previous summers and allow Wayne Routledge, Nicky Maynard and Nicky Shorey to be the new Darren Pratley, Peter Whittingham and, well, Nicky Shorey, then we're stuffed.

From a business point of view I can see the point of our transfer panel. We don't want a manager to go crazy and waste big money on players that really aren't worth it. We want the club to make investments into good players that will flourish for years to come ala Lee Camp, Chris Gunter, Dexter Blackstock etc. But doesn't there come a point where you have to take a punt? Maybe say someone is your number one target and make sure you get them. Even if you then have to look at loans and frees for non-priority positions (Norwich and Swansea used the loan market much better than we did last year). If you appoint someone of McClaren's ability he really needs to tools at his disposal to forge a successful side. Why be decisive about a manager but not his playing staff?

I know it's easy for me to say this. It's not my money that could be wasted. But the implied mistrust of the panel fostered resentment under Davies and that cannot be allowed to take hold again. With teams in the Championship spending more on managers and players than ever it has become a super competitive market. The advantage we have over West Ham and Birmingham is that we have a settled spine that should, hopefully stay together. Leicester may be distorting the market a little with their blank chequebook but that just means we'll have to be cleverer and pick our targets wisely. The simple fact is we have to spend to just stand still, that's the way the league is now.

Much has been made of our failure to start well in the last few seasons. It's not really a surprise given the fact that two summers ago we had a lot of players to gel together and last summer we were still waiting for the missing pieces to the puzzle. Unless we give Steve some new faces soon we'll have exactly the same thing again.

I'm refusing to get too gloomy just yet. I've surprised myself at how happy I am at the McClaren appointment and Reid's return is fantastic. Once again we're in a position with Forest where we have the opportunity to build something really exciting. Too many time sin the past we've thrown those chances away. I'm desperate for it not to happen again...