Friday 18 January 2019

Three reasons why I think Martin O’Neill might be a good fit for Forest

There are those who’d have you believe that Martin O’Neill is a tactical ‘dinosaur’ whose time has gone – and that his appointment at the City Ground is about romance and nostalgia and little else. I think – and hope – that they’re guilty for making lazy assumptions and that the new man in charge at Forest can prove them wrong.

In football - and beyond – we all too easily bung labels onto people that aren’t fair. Just look at how many people on Twitter rush to label managers a ‘fraud’ after one defeat. Actually, don’t. Those people really don’t need your attention.

The new Forest manager has always struck me as being a clever man, a pragmatist and someone who is good with people.

His cerebral character was, famously, the source of much ribbing from Brian Clough in his time as a player at the City Ground. I find it hard to believe that a smart cookie such as O’Neill is either incapable of changing with the times or analysing and understanding the tactical intricacies of modern football.

He might be 66, but that’s only three years older than Marcelo Bielsa – a man who attracted much attention this week for his fascinating and amusing insight into his tactical analysis of Frank Lampard’s Derby County ™. O’Neill doesn’t have the hipster allure of an overseas innovator like Bielsa but, then again, he’s got more silverware to show for himself. Tactics are important but they aren’t everything and they aren’t new.

In an interview with the Telegraph – conducted between his departure from the Republic of Ireland and arrival on Trentside – O’Neill addressed this criticism. He said:

“When you don’t talk about your philosophy or use words like project, you get labelled old fashioned. I’m certainly not that.
“Let's put it this way, the game has changed. There's some aspects that have changed greatly, but there are also some aspects that remain the same.
“We all know these buzzwords, but they seem to be necessary to be fashionable. The fact that I didn't project those words, because I felt that the football language should be reasonably simple [counts against me].”

Perhaps, as with Bielsa this week, it’s all in the presentation.

No-one knows what makes a good Forest manager any more. We’ve tried just about every sort of boss you can think of in recent times and a combination of poor performance, excessive expectation and impatience have put paid to all of them without the desired result. Just reading the list of incumbents in the last decade or so shows the lack of strategic thinking at the club – this hasn’t been somewhere with a clear idea of what it wants and the type of manager that can deliver on it.

It’s impossible, therefore, to know whether or not the O’Neill appointment will work. There are, however, signs that O’Neill is a decent pick – and better than plucking a Paul Clement or Gary Rowett off the Championship managerial carousel.

I won’t claim to know everything about his recent role as Ireland boss – but I can’t help thinking he’d have been judged differently if he’d have walked away after Euro 2016, where his side beat Italy before going out in the knockout phase to hosts France. Even then, he still managed to engineer a victory away at a Wales team before a humbling defeat by Denmark in the play-offs for the Russia World Cup. Also, I can’t help but feeling that we’ve hardly earned the right to dismiss managers based on their performance at the Euros or the World Cup, especially after 20 years away from the top flight.

Sunderland started well for O’Neill before quickly fading – a fate befalling many managers at the Stadium of Light in recent times – and spells at Villa, Celtic, Leicester and Wycombe all brought success.

But CVs and credentials are only one way you can ever judge someone for a job. Ask a decent recruitment consultant and they’ll tell you that it does matter that someone is a good ‘fit’ – that they’ll buy into the culture of the workplace and that they’ll work well with the people in the organisation.

His playing career in the Garibaldi might not matter for the task in hand, therefore, but his natural affinity for the club and strong understanding of what makes it tick will be useful. O’Neill won’t be cowed by the history of the club. For him, the images on the walls aren’t pictures, they’re anecdotes and stories he can use to inspire.

But nostalgia and romance are only a part of why O’Neill might be a good fit. His pragmatism and people management skills will also be extremely handy for the challenge ahead.

He’s already spoken clearly about his remit. He’s got 18 months in the job and needs to get promotion. If it doesn’t happen in that time, he’ll go. He doesn’t seem worried by that – and accepted the short termism that now persists in the game.

People talk about his ‘style’ as Ireland boss, but there’s a case to be made that he was playing the hand he’d been dealt. At Forest, he’ll have the opportunity to use the transfer window, but you also get the impression he’ll look to use the tools as his disposal and fashion success from the blueprint left by Karanka. With Joe Lolley’s wingplay, the solid midfield foundations of Jack Colback and Claudio Yacob, the subtle skill and vision of Joao Carvalho, finishing of Lewis Grabban and the defensive nous of Michael Dawson, Tobias Figueiredo and Jack Robinson, there’s the makings of a useful side. You also feel that O’Neill will love the energy of Matty Cash and the hard work and flexibility of Ben Osborn.

In international football he had little time to work with the players on style, and in some respects it’ll be the same here as he has to hit the ground running mid season. As Ireland boss, he’ll no doubt have seen plenty of games at this level so should also have a decent understanding of the state of the league. In both respects, his last job might be more relevant than some appreciate.

O’Neill’s people skills have helped to forge himself a good career as an insightful pundit, but they’ll also come in handy in trying to get the most from his new charges. He’s already got a good sense of the fact that his players have been phased by the pressure of needing to find a performance to match the expectation and sense of occasion surrounding a full house at the City Ground. Confidence and mindset have, probably more than tactics, held us back at home this season. Maybe Martin’s man management can help the players to overcome that?

Maybe I’m just trying to look on the bright side here. I do accept that success is not guaranteed and that there are challenges for Martin O’Neill to overcome. Yet, the ‘perfect’ manager – if they do exist – wouldn’t be coming to a Championship club mid season. Every appointment carries risk.

Some use the example of Stuart Pearce as a cautionary tale and evidence that nostalgia doesn’t work. Yet, O’Neill doesn’t have to work under the Fawaz regime – and his pedigree is better than either Pearce or Frank Clark, an ex-player who did enjoy success in the role.

It’s also possible to feel disappointed and uneasy about the premature nature of Aitor Karanka’s departure while still finding positives in the appointment of his replacement. Not that Twitter affords you the ability to think two things at once.

The sad fact is that the average tenure for the last ten Forest matches has been just under 35 games. We should all be worried about that. O’Neill has given himself 65 – in the league at least – to see if he can work a minor miracle to follow the major one already on his resume as a player.

O’Neill deserves the support he’ll undoubtedly get – but also deserves to be judged on his actions rather than preconceptions. He spent a playing career trying to prove Cloughie ‘wrong’ (given Ol’Big ‘Ead’s reverse psychology) and has confounded critics as a manager. His character, skills and record stand him in good stead for doing so again.

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Friday 11 January 2019

Adios Aitor: Classy Karanka’s departure feels depressingly familiar

It’s not shocking anymore, it’s just depressingly familiar. After marking one year in charge at the City Ground - itself a minor miracle in recent times - Aitor Karanka’s tenure on Trentside is over and the search is on for yet another new manager.
He might have resigned, but it seems pretty clear that it’s a question of ‘jump before pushed’ and that relations between the Spaniard and the ownership had soured to the extent that a split seemed inevitable. Indeed, in a strange way there’s a sense of relief that the matter has been put to bed, ending the unhelpful uncertainty and quietening those who fancifully dismissed the speculation as a press invention.

It pays not to get too attached to managers as a Forest fan but it was clear that Aitor was popular. Maybe fans were just fed up of constant change and wanted someone to pin their hopes on, but there did seem to be some genuine affection for the ex Boro boss - and his name was sung loudly and regularly in a way rarely seen for recent occupants of the dugout.

While I personally felt that Mark Warburton had been owed more time, Aitor Karanka did appear to be a decent choice to replace him a year ago and always seemed a good fit as Forest manager. Not only had he had experience of gaining promotion to the Premier League, he didn’t - perhaps until recently - appear daunted by the pressure of the challenge he faced. Indeed, his pedigree as a player gave him a natural rapport and respect among the club’s legends that helped him fit in. This was a man who didn’t seem afraid of the club’s grand past since he’d played for a club with its own far grander heritage. He also felt fresh - and not a tired old hand after just another payday or a face from the club’s past that might divide the romantics and pragmatists among the fan base.

Karanka’s mission had seemed clear - especially in light of the ruthless dispatching of Warburton. He had a two-and-a-half-year contract and had to achieve promotion by the time it was up. Nothing else mattered and every decision he took as manager appeared guided by that. Signings had to be players who could come in and get us up within that period - and players like Joe Worrall had to go and continue their education elsewhere. It was perhaps more short termist than some fans would’ve liked - especially after an FA Cup win over holders Arsenal that had been inspired by academy graduates - but at least it was clear.

Karanka’s tenure hasn’t been all plain sailing - nor has it been free of mistakes. But, for a man in a hurry and with a tough target to meet he seemed to be doing well. He was less than half way into his contract and, in my view, at least half way towards his goal of turning us into promotion material. We can talk about points totals and league positions - both of which show progress - but the clear feeling is that this is a team that is ‘getting there’. A solid midfield base, the wing wizardry of Joe Lolley, the goalscoring of Lewis Grabban and the stylish passing of Joao Carvalho are all hallmarks of a decent side in the making. Getting more firepower, becoming more ruthless, countering teams that sit back at the City Ground, fielding a fit defence and improving on things like set pieces are all important to build on that if we want to win more games.

The Spaniard did, granted, have generous backing in his quest. The last two transfer windows have been busy and no-one can say the club hasn’t invested in improving the playing squad. Sub par players of the like of Jamie Ward, Matt Mills and Michael Mancienne have been moved on and superior replacements have been recruited. Yet, we’re in a world in which transfer fees are ridiculously inflated and it took £19 million to buy just two key attacking players in Grabban and Carvalho. When you haven’t got time to look around for bargains, you have to pay big bucks. The club might have thought it had spent enough - the reality is that the building work is unfinished and the harsh reality of the Championship can exhaust even the largest of chequebooks.

Reading John Percy’s report in the Telegraph - and other recent accounts - and it appears clear that the owners wanted the team to be in the top six at the start of 2019. It’s not quite apparent why this mattered since the prizes aren’t handed out until May. Sitting in 7th, four points off the top six, is hardly miles off the pace either. I can’t work out if this is an arbitrary retrospective target invented to justify parting ways or not. Either way it seems pretty daft.

There’s another worrying section in his report for me. It’s this bit:
Forest's owners clashed with Karanka over the lack of games for Arvin Appiah, an exciting teenage winger. They argued that Appiah should be given more time on the field, but Karanka felt it was effectively having his team picked for him.
Are the club just saying this because they know we like to see our young talent given a chance? If so, it sounds like cynical spin to placate the fans. If not, and they genuinely put Karanka under pressure to field a player who has just turned 18, then that seems like unneccessary interference in playing affairs. The third potential explanation is that they have seen the interest from Premier League clubs in Appiah and want to maximise his value.

Appiah seems an exciting talent but he - like the team in general - needs patience. It’s completely wrong to compare the Marinakis regime to the Fawaz era in terms of the business and marketing side of the club - but fans are right to be worried by events that appear to show that we haven’t got over our addiction to the drug of short termism.

It seems that all hasn’t been right between the owners and Karanka since a visit from the club hierarchy to the training ground in October. That, coupled with the arrival of a new director of football, seemed to coincide with a downturn in the manager’s mood - not least in the aftermath of the Ipswich victory. Perhaps it was then that the pressure was put on the manager to deliver better results quicker?

It was certainly around then that Karanka’s substitutions became more erratic. After the QPR game, in which we switched to a bizarre front three of Murphy, Ansarifad and Grabban without any wingers to supply them, I felt I’d seen the actions of a manager under pressure - someone panicking and gambling to try to keep his job. At the time, though, I wrote that off as an explanation that was too silly to be true. The kamikaze nature of the Norwich game makes a little more sense through this prism though. Why else would we send on Gil Dias and push the full backs forward searching for a fourth in such circumstances? Consciously or not, Karanka seemed under pressure to win and, possibly, dispel the slightly unfair ‘defensive manager’ tag.

The club’s ownership clearly want promotion - don’t we all. But it now appears that the deadline has been reduced further still and that May is now the target. Yet, even then, the best way to achieve that would probably have been to patch things up with Karanka and allow him to make the one or two additions he’d need to fast track his goal.

Personally, I’ve felt for some time that there are probably at least six teams better placed for promotion in this campaign - and that we’d miss out on the play-offs. Narrowly missing out on the top six would’ve represented enough progress for me - especially given that there were 16 teams better than us last season and we’ve been relegation contenders in recent times. I felt that would’ve been the basis for a push next time around and that we stood a half decent chance of achieving Karanka’s tough two-and-a-half-year target. It’d also have been nice to feel the benefit of some continuity in the dugout - with the likes of Norwich showing how things can really click given time.

Yet, the desire for stability won’t be satisfied for now. The Post reckons that Karanka’s replacement will come from a shortlist of three - Slavisa Jokanovic, Martin O’Neill and Carlos Carvalhal. Jokanovic appears the obvious choice, especially given his experience with Watford and Fulham. O’Neill would need time to re-adjust to club football and maybe the moment has passed for him to take charge here. Carvalhal seems talented but combustible - a route we’ve taken before with Billy Davies perhaps?

The club could do without another cycle of January window panic followed by a summer of rebuilding, whoever takes charge. That way almost certainly leads to another sacking this time next year and the continuation of our Groundhog Day loop. We’re all a bit sick of that now surely?

Whatever happens from here, good or bad, Aitor Karanka felt like he was a class act, doing a good job and was a decent fit for the club. Given how hard it has been to appoint good managers, it seems a shame that it has come to this.
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