That perhaps shouldn't come as a surprise. Adding so many players in one mad splurge was always going to create a headache. Not least when it's unclear how much strategy went into the recruitment. Why, for example, do we have so many wide players who would prefer to start on the right and drift inside onto their left foot? Why a glut of muscular, obdurate midfielders and not enough creators? Why didn't we get a balance of youth and experience?
Miserable 2020 form has continued
Yet, while it takes time to find a workable team out of the current crop of players, it's increasingly dawning on us all that survival in the Championship might well be the best we can hope for this season. Perhaps understandably, that's causing us all to get a bit grumpy. But I am worried that this grumpiness will lead us into another blind alley if we're not careful.
Let's not beat about the bush; the Hughton era has been disappointing. Four wins from 17 games have continued the form of a miserable 2020 (although, incidentally that's two more wins than a certain someone in their first 17 games). There hasn't really been a new manager bounce or honeymoon period and there have been some pretty terrible games in that run.
Some of the responsibility for recent results clearly lies with the new manager - but I'd say that's only a small fraction. While I can understand why people are disappointed, I'm frustrated at the depressingly familiar air to the critique of current matches.
The club's strategy encourages 'negative' football
I'm seeing a lot of talk, for example, about Chris Hughton's negativity as a manager. Now, don't get me wrong; he's definitely a cautious coach and that's been evident in his career so far. But we need to ask ourselves why we end up in the circular debate with managers. Why is it that Sabri Lamouchi, Martin O'Neill, Aitor Karanka and Mark Warburton were all accused of the same thing? I'm all for fair criticism but ask yourself - is it really Chris Hughton's negative tactics and team selection that are annoying you... or is it the club's broader (lack of) strategy?
We're forever getting sucked into the here and now. This team selection, the 'tactics' in this game, the next signing, the next manager. I'm absolutely guilty of this too. However we need to look at a few home truths. Nottingham Forest is not a football club that's geared towards producing free flowing, exciting teams. That comes from the very top. The goal for each of those managers is 'promotion yesterday'. Faced with an ambitious goal and an unrealistic time frame, all have decided that the circumstances require pragmatism. A solid side that can compete with the physical challenges of the Championship has been the aim - with the hope that a spot of individual brilliance from a couple of key attackers can get enough results. Do you want to have to watch another new face take a dozen games to come this same conclusion again? I don't.
An attractive side with a clear identity could take three seasons to build. Along the way there'd be some poor results, naive defeats to streetwise Warnock-style sides and the need for patience and support - especially for the team's creative players. We'd lose young talent along the way and have to invest wisely in replacements. The owners don't want to sit through all of that and wait for a Brentford/Swansea to emerge. Unfortunately their short termism has rubbed off on a significant portion of the fanbase too - and too many of us wouldn't be prepared to get behind a project like that.
Building from the back
So, we are where we are. And, in those circumstances, Chris Hughton is probably trying to do the right thing. He's building from the back and trying to patch up the leaky, error-ridden defensive displays that could easily take us to League One if we're not careful. Let's not forget that player sales, injuries and form have torn up much of the foundations Sabri established last season. He's also having to patch something together during a relentless schedule - and it's probably no wonder that the run of defeats ended when we stopped playing the division's best sides.
Let's face it - most people's aversion to defensive football disappears if it starts to pick up results. Sabri's tactics weren't a problem when they earned wins over the likes of Fulham away or Leeds at home. The thing people hate most is 'losing football'.
If Hughton can get Scott McKenna fit, you'd think he'd land on a workable back four. But we're still not quite there. With the defence a concern, the balance in midfield has erred towards the defensive. I'd like to see something a bit more dynamic from this part of the pitch - but I'm not the person who will have to deal with the fallout when we get overrun and lose games. I'm also a little bit concerned that we're left with lots of similar central midfielders for whom creativity isn't a strong suit. Perhaps, for now, Hughton feels he's playing to his strengths in midfield (while trying to get something more from Cafu).
While the process of building firm foundations continues, we'll all have to expect stodgy, scruffy performances such as The Karanka Stalemate against Birmingham (aptly that has a ring of a duff Boxing Day film).
𝘏𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘭𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵𝘴: 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝘃𝘀 𝗕𝗶𝗿𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴𝗵𝗮𝗺
— Nottingham Forest FC (@NFFC) December 27, 2020
The key moments from yesterday's draw at The City Ground ⚽️ #NFFC pic.twitter.com/PRAHQm9jCs
Teams that go down lose lots of those games, teams that go up win them.
Yet teams that survive and begin moving in the right direction do have to find the quality to edge enough of those messy games at home - especially if they aren't to put undue pressure on themselves when faced with tricky trips to the likes of Stoke and Preston.
By now, we'd all hoped that the ability to throw Lolley, Knockaert and Taylor on from the bench to win a game would be telling. Yet, there we are - still a squad without a team. While that situation stands - and while the bottom three is within touching distance - we're destined for a Scrappy New Year.
