The mystery of 2021/22: Anything possible, for good or bad

Forest this season? Well, it could be anything really couldn't it? As Chris Hughton's Reds prepare to be sent to Coventry, it's perhaps no exaggeration to say that the full range of possibilities are open for the 2021/22 campaign - from promotion right down to relegation.

Youthful flair gives cause for optimism

If your glass is half full - and the cusp of the season is the rare occasion where this is commonplace - there are things to cling to ahead of the curtain raiser. Firstly, there are a couple of exciting young attacking talents waiting to be unleashed. Alex Mighten has had a taste of first team action and now looks ready to blossom. Brennan Johnson has matured nicely in the testing environment of League One and looks more than ready to step up. Both could and should start. Beyond them, the loan experience gained by the likes of Jordan Gabriel and Tyrese Fornah has raised hopes that squad depth could be offered by our rising stars - and that expensive loan signings can be targeted where they're most needed.

Then there's the prospect of a (cross everything) fully fit Joe Lolley and the chance for Lewis Grabban to make a fresh start and put a season of injuries and poor form behind him. The lack of impact from these two went a long way to explaining our paucity of goals last season. Finding their pre-Covid form would go a long way to sorting our biggest problems.

For now - and let's not jinx things - we've kept hold of Mighten and Joe Worrall despite Premier League interest and the squad is also shorn of some of its expensive chaff, bringing down an eye-wateringly high wage bill a tad. The bomb squad is diminishing and the young players are growing in stature.

Signings? Well, as we saw last season, they can be overrated. Too many additions makes it hard to build a team and we've got to stop our addiction to the signing sugar rush, as fans and as a club. The 2002/03 and 2010/11 play-off pushes came without a swathe of arrivals. Anyway, Ethan Horvath might well keep Brice Samba on his toes - and one or two additions might occur now that Premier League clubs are concluding their businesses, so it's not as if we can't attract new additions like, ahem, some other clubs.

✍️

Welcome to The Reds, Ethan Horvath 👊

🌳🔴 #NFFC

— Nottingham Forest FC ❤️ (@NFFC) July 13, 2021

Chris Hughton has had time with his squad and can bring all of his know-how and experience to bear in a wide-open league where every team has been circumspect in the transfer market. If this season becomes a case of 'making the best of what you've got', Hughton should be an asset.

If all that comes together, where could it end up? A well-drilled Hughton side with a solid base, bright young attacking talents and fit and firing key players could threaten the upper echelons of the table. Without additions - and the wait for these could go on throughout the month - there's a couple of key gaps (hello left back, my old friend) that could be a concern. Plus, even the most optimistic fan would have to accept that the relegated trio of Sheffield United, West Brom and Fulham begin a long way ahead in terms of playing talent and financial might. Add in a Bournemouth side who probably should've got their act together better last time out and you'd probably think the upper limit would be one of the last couple of play-off spots.

But, that's if everything clicks and goes well. Only those with the most Garibaldi-tinted of spectacles could ignore the fact that, well, that might well not happen. The half empty glass has to at least be contemplated.

The worst case scenario

Let's not forget that we really weren't far away from being one of the worst three teams in the division last season. We won the same number of games as bottom-of-the-table Sheffield Wednesday and scored fewer goals than all of the three clubs that fell through the dreaded trap door.

At face value, we've made no signings to improve that shot-shy team. We've also lost the passing maestro who got us playing - although keep everything crossed that James Garner could return for an encore - and have no fit senior full backs (or at least none that we actually want at the club). The likes of Gabriel, Mbe Soh and Richardson might grow into those roles - or they might find that the Championship is a baptism of fire and struggle to handle the division's deadliest wingers. Our strength last season was our defence - but there is a chance that the quartet fielded by Hughton this time around won't be quite as solid and that even that asset is lessened.

Lewis Grabban will turn 34 in January and might well not be able to hit the heights of two seasons ago - and Lyle Taylor's showings last campaign were distinctly disappointing. Without a significant sale, it seems unlikely that we'll be able to add to our attacking arsenal and there are definitely question marks around the men leading the line. Behind them, inexperienced attackers might find the Championship a tough environment in which to flourish - and we'll need to be patient while the potential of Johnson and Mighten translates into performances.

A Covid-hit pre-season reduced the match practice Hughton was able to have - while the threat of bigger bids for Brennan Johnson or Joe Worrall will only go away once the window shuts. The club do seem to have targets in mind if the money comes in - but losing a key player in the early weeks of the campaign could be de-stabilising, especially if it's Worrall and the first choice defence is significantly weakened.

Hughton might be experienced - but he's up against other wily old heads in the likes of Mick McCarthy, Nigel Pearson, Gary Rowett and old Colin. Yes, there are few great teams at this level but there are lots of streetwise solid sides that could threaten if things go their way. Not only does Hughton have a lot of competition, he'll also be under big pressure to deliver. A slow start and some dull performances and he'd soon be facing that all-too-familiar managerial pressure narrative. There's been lots of positive talk from the off-the-field appointments, but we'll soon see if that's really just PR if and when the chips are down.

So, if rookie full backs are exposed, a stodgy midfield fails to find flair and the strike force continues last season's 'form', you have to accept that rock bottom for this squad could well be in the bottom three.

Yeah, I know, not exactly what you want to hear in a pre-season preview. But it's worth contemplating that 4th right through to 24th are possible. The bottom three relies on a lot going wrong, yes, but only as much as the play-offs rely on an awful lot going right. The answer will, probably, lie somewhere in the middle of those two extremes. How close to 'half full' and 'half empty' really does depend on how much the coaching staff can tap into the potential of our younger players, what happens next in the transfer market, the patience of the ownership, the performance of our rivals and, as ever, luck.

Scrappy New Year: Why Hughton's search for stability won't be pretty

Right now, Chris Hughton has the opposite problem to Sabri Lamouchi. The Frenchman had a clear first team - or at least a core of 14/15 players - but lacked the squad depth to provide variety or add fresh legs. It was, in my opinion, a big factor in why we faded away so badly. His successor has a squad...but is yet to properly forge a formidable team from it. We remain, in an attacking sense, a collection of individuals in need of a pattern and plan and, as a result, are finding goals hard to come by.

That perhaps shouldn't come as a surprise. Adding so many players in one mad splurge was always going to create a headache. Not least when it's unclear how much strategy went into the recruitment. Why, for example, do we have so many wide players who would prefer to start on the right and drift inside onto their left foot? Why a glut of muscular, obdurate midfielders and not enough creators? Why didn't we get a balance of youth and experience? 

Miserable 2020 form has continued

Yet, while it takes time to find a workable team out of the current crop of players, it's increasingly dawning on us all that survival in the Championship might well be the best we can hope for this season. Perhaps understandably, that's causing us all to get a bit grumpy. But I am worried that this grumpiness will lead us into another blind alley if we're not careful.

Let's not beat about the bush; the Hughton era has been disappointing. Four wins from 17 games have continued the form of a miserable 2020 (although, incidentally that's two more wins than a certain someone in their first 17 games). There hasn't really been a new manager bounce or honeymoon period and there have been some pretty terrible games in that run.

Some of the responsibility for recent results clearly lies with the new manager - but I'd say that's only a small fraction. While I can understand why people are disappointed, I'm frustrated at the depressingly familiar air to the critique of current matches.

The club's strategy encourages 'negative' football

I'm seeing a lot of talk, for example, about Chris Hughton's negativity as a manager. Now, don't get me wrong; he's definitely a cautious coach and that's been evident in his career so far. But we need to ask ourselves why we end up in the circular debate with managers. Why is it that Sabri Lamouchi, Martin O'Neill, Aitor Karanka and Mark Warburton were all accused of the same thing? I'm all for fair criticism but ask yourself - is it really Chris Hughton's negative tactics and team selection that are annoying you... or is it the club's broader (lack of) strategy?

We're forever getting sucked into the here and now. This team selection, the 'tactics' in this game, the next signing, the next manager. I'm absolutely guilty of this too. However we need to look at a few home truths. Nottingham Forest is not a football club that's geared towards producing free flowing, exciting teams. That comes from the very top. The goal for each of those managers is 'promotion yesterday'. Faced with an ambitious goal and an unrealistic time frame, all have decided that the circumstances require pragmatism. A solid side that can compete with the physical challenges of the Championship has been the aim - with the hope that a spot of individual brilliance from a couple of key attackers can get enough results. Do you want to have to watch another new face take a dozen games to come this same conclusion again? I don't.

An attractive side with a clear identity could take three seasons to build. Along the way there'd be some poor results, naive defeats to streetwise Warnock-style sides and the need for patience and support - especially for the team's creative players. We'd lose young talent along the way and have to invest wisely in replacements. The owners don't want to sit through all of that and wait for a Brentford/Swansea to emerge. Unfortunately their short termism has rubbed off on a significant portion of the fanbase too - and too many of us wouldn't be prepared to get behind a project like that.

Building from the back

So, we are where we are. And, in those circumstances, Chris Hughton is probably trying to do the right thing. He's building from the back and trying to patch up the leaky, error-ridden defensive displays that could easily take us to League One if we're not careful. Let's not forget that player sales, injuries and form have torn up much of the foundations Sabri established last season. He's also having to patch something together during a relentless schedule - and it's probably no wonder that the run of defeats ended when we stopped playing the division's best sides. 

Let's face it - most people's aversion to defensive football disappears if it starts to pick up results. Sabri's tactics weren't a problem when they earned wins over the likes of Fulham away or Leeds at home. The thing people hate most is 'losing football'.

If Hughton can get Scott McKenna fit, you'd think he'd land on a workable back four. But we're still not quite there. With the defence a concern, the balance in midfield has erred towards the defensive. I'd like to see something a bit more dynamic from this part of the pitch - but I'm not the person who will have to deal with the fallout when we get overrun and lose games. I'm also a little bit concerned that we're left with lots of similar central midfielders for whom creativity isn't a strong suit. Perhaps, for now, Hughton feels he's playing to his strengths in midfield (while trying to get something more from Cafu).

While the process of building firm foundations continues, we'll all have to expect stodgy, scruffy performances such as The Karanka Stalemate against Birmingham (aptly that has a ring of a duff Boxing Day film). 

𝘏𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘭𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵𝘴: 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝘃𝘀 𝗕𝗶𝗿𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴𝗵𝗮𝗺

The key moments from yesterday's draw at The City Ground ⚽️ #NFFC pic.twitter.com/PRAHQm9jCs

— Nottingham Forest FC (@NFFC) December 27, 2020

Teams that go down lose lots of those games, teams that go up win them.

Yet teams that survive and begin moving in the right direction do have to find the quality to edge enough of those messy games at home - especially if they aren't to put undue pressure on themselves when faced with tricky trips to the likes of Stoke and Preston. 

By now, we'd all hoped that the ability to throw Lolley, Knockaert and Taylor on from the bench to win a game would be telling. Yet, there we are - still a squad without a team. While that situation stands - and while the bottom three is within touching distance - we're destined for a Scrappy New Year. 

Hughton, we have a problem

Are Forest better than last season? Right now, that's a tough question to answer. For me, too many people have rushed to proclaim that the answer to this is definitely yes - and in doing so are missing what a tricky job Chris Hughton actually has on his hands.

Of course, we all hope that the team will be better than the last campaign. It's also true that there's reason for optimism among the 14 faces that were snapped up during the summer shopping spree. Instead of relying on unproven players to make their mark from the bench or having a squad packed with out-of-favour faces, we've now got a batch of individuals who have the pedigree required to succeed in the Championship.

But the simple fact of signing good players isn't enough. We do have a better squad now - but it's now up to the new manager to translate that collection of individuals into a team that can be more successful than the 2019/20 vintage. 

And that's far from being a done deal. Matty Cash was the clear and deserved winner of the player of the year crown and it's not easy to just move on from losing your best performer. His energy and dynamism going forward had the power to change the course of a game and that has been sorely missed. His athleticism and determination at the back also shut the door on many a dangerous attack too and contributed to our clean sheet tally.

None of that is to criticise Cyrus Christie who seems a solid enough replacement. We're starting to show signs of playing to playing to his strengths too - and his excellent crossing ability looks an asset. But the blasé assumption that a team can easily get better without its best player grates on me slightly. 

It isn't just Cash either. Consider the spine of the side for Lamouchi's nearly men. Cash was the star man (running down the right, as per the song), but Ben Watson was the leader. The former Watford man orchestrated events on the pitch and made the deep midfield berth his own. His streetwise play undoubtedly helped us to turn tight games into victories and brought a bit of calm. Don't get me wrong, I accept that it was probably right to move on from Watson. It's certainly unlikely that he could keep up the pace at this level for too much longer. But we need to accept that his replacements won't necessarily be like-for-like and might require us to slightly alter the way we play. There's another blasé assumption that a team can ditch its leader - who started many attacks - and just get better.

Second behind Cash in the player of the season race was Lewis Grabban. The wispily bearded marksman became the first player to net 20 goals since the 2002/03 season. He did so despite often feeding on scraps for a counter-attacking team that didn't create an abundance of chances. Given that we only scored one more goal as a team than bottom of the league Hull, it was clear that we were over reliant on Lewis to deliver in the last campaign. This season, however, has been a struggle. Poor form and transfer speculation were followed by an injury, leaving the team shorn of its crucial focal point. 

Lyle Taylor looks a more-than-decent addition - and is starting to find his rhythm in Hughton's team. He was clearly a big part of the back-to-back victories before the international break and seems an excellent signing. But, again, expecting the side to get better without the man who was so integral to our fortunes last season is another lazy assumption that cannot go unchallenged. 

Missing the spine of Sabri's side

If midway through the last campaign you'd have said Forest would miss Cash, Watson and Grabban for a game you'd have been worried. Now add in the injury to Joe Worrall to the mix too and you've suddenly got a side in want of a new spine. Scott McKenna looks a smart acquisition - but it'd be nice to try him with Worrall rather than instead. Joe might've attracted some boo boys online for his injury time mistake against the Sheep - but that short-sightedness ignores the many other times that the academy graduate saved our bacon. He's also another vocal presence who could've helped new faces to bed in to the side.

Tiago Silva was also a key part of Sabri's seventh place side. I wasn't ever quite certain whether we got the best from him or found his ideal position - but he turned out in 47 league and cup fixtures and you can't argue that he wasn't another key cog. Again, the new additions should be able to fill his boots but, for now at least, we're still searching for a midfield formula that works and gives the right balance between solidity, energy and creativity. 

To my mind it does a disservice to Hughton not to reflect on the fact that many of the building blocks of last season have been taken out of the team. Remove a centre half, midfield general, star striker, marauding full back and versatile midfielder out of any first eleven and they'll struggle. There's been too much talk about confidence and play-off hangovers and not enough about this for my liking.

The starkest evidence of the rapid change to the team comes when comparing the recent dour Middlesbrough defeat to the Leeds home win - the high water mark of the Sabri Lamouchi regime. Just three players from the team that bested Biesla's boys in February - Brice Samba, Tobias Figueiredo and Sammy Ameobi - also started at the Riverside against Colin's mob. That's not ideal for a club that's supposed to be building on what was started last season.

Adding 14 signings might help in the medium-to-long term but in the short term it creates many selection headaches that will take weeks to fix. My non-scientific theory is it takes one game for every signing made to get close to knowing your ideal first XI...but that's not factoring in the disruption of a managerial change on top of all of that. 

I don't want to get too 'doom and gloom' about all of this - I think Hughton is probably ahead of schedule in terms of building a fresh side - but it's definitely worth us reflecting on the scale of what the manager has got to contend with. It's why we should accept that things might be a bit stodgy and patchy for a few more weeks yet while he tries to establish firmer foundations after a poor start to the season. If we don't accept this, we're in danger of expecting miracles. Again.

Sabri Lamouchi out, Chris Hughton in: Forest favour change again

18 words is all he got. And half an hour is all we got to mull it over. 

In the end, it's fair to say Sabri Lamouchi was a manager who conducted himself with a great deal more class and dignity than whoever issued the curt and joyless statement announcing his departure from the City Ground. When players who've registered a handful of appearances receive more warmth, it leaves a sour taste and doesn't paint the club in the best light. 

Nor, frankly, does the report in the Athletic of the club owner's apparent actions after the Barnsley League Cup game. These events appear to have undermined the former Rennes boss and really can't have helped to lift spirits at a club still shellshocked by the all-too-recent calamity of the past season's finale.

#NFFC can confirm that the contract of head coach Sabri Lamouchi has been terminated with immediate effect.

— Nottingham Forest FC (@NFFC) October 6, 2020

The popular Frenchman's departure tonight was a sad end to a tenure that offered so much promise. Perhaps his greatest failing was to offer a glimmer of hope that the club's short-term goals might be achievable. Now he's a man who failed to make the seemingly-impossible possible and has paid the price for being unable to reverse the rot once it set in. 

Even those of us who supported him have to accept, however, that one hell of a rot had set in - and it wasn't exactly a surprise to see him go in the end.

Chris Hughton - the best possible choice?

Forest may have been short of words to describe his departure - but the English language is short of words to describe the odd feelings this club has a habit of stirring. It's possible to be both disappointed with a poorly handled sacking and mightily impressed with the calibre of his replacement in one mixed-up bundle. 

Chris Hughton seems like the best possible choice in the circumstances - a smart manager with the experience, cool head and pragmatism needed to try to knit together a side from a squad that contains a fair few experienced heads. He's worked for demanding owners in the past, steered clubs to play-off and promotion campaigns and even (fanciful though it sounds from this far out) established clubs in the top flight after getting up. 

You also feel that his style might well suit the players at his disposal and avoid the need for too many more additions after a window in which 13 new faces have already checked in at the City Ground. A complete change of style - with a need for yet more purchases - wouldn't have been wise.

Chris Hughton appointed as manager #NFFC are delighted to announce the appointment of Chris Hughton as the club’s new manager.

— Nottingham Forest FC (@NFFC) October 6, 2020

It's probably a smart tactic to have the new man lined up right away when wielding the axe too - it does at least take the sting out of some of the criticism that might've been levelled at the club hierarchy for its role in the situation we're in.

Don't let the club off the hook

But let's not allow the moment to pass before making this point - the people at the top of the club need to reflect on their failings. They're just as culpable as the man they unceremoniously bundled out of the door and we won't move on unless they learn.

After the disastrous end to last season, the senior leadership had a decision to make - stick or twist. Instead, they tried both. They stuck by the manager in a bid to get some continuity and build on the highest league finish in nine years. They also decided to revamp the squad with the sort of volume of signings and departures you'd expect to have seen if they had actually sacked Sabri. Maybe they hoped to build on the foundations of last season and get a boost from freshening up the dressing room. It feels very much like a 'have your cake and eat it' strategy - and it didn't work. In the end we got the benefit of neither approach - getting simultaneously stuck in a rut and left with a situation in which it'll take some time for a best XI to emerge. Reports will say Sabri was 'backed by the addition of 13 new signings' - but they ought to reflect on the fact that he never really had chance to field some of those more than once, if at all. 

If a limp defeat to Barnsley in a cup competition we could've done without was enough to anger the owner, then perhaps the point of no return had been passed anyway? Throwing players at the problem and hoping something sticks is the sort of short termist folly that the previous regime was famous for. Is that really all we've got? Let's hope not.

Hughton has a great track record, but he could do without him and his players facing a rollicking over Zoom. Evangelos Marinakis might be used to getting his own way, but he has to face up to the fact that he's not in charge of a club that can naturally challenge for honours every season regardless. He can expect results yesterday if he likes, but he won't get them without being a bit smarter than that. I'm sure he knows an awful lot more than me about running a football club, but it's time he showed that he does.

To be fair, in Hughton the club have picked a manager to match their recruitment policy (or part of it anyway) - finding an experienced head who shouldn't need time to adjust to the nature of the league. He seems a popular choice with fans - and a popular figure in the game too. But, as ever with Forest managers, he needs time he doesn't really have to do two seasons work in one. He needs luck as well as skill to find a winning formula quickly. He also needs support - from the owners, the dressing room and us. I hope he gets it.

So, yes, I'm happy with Hughton. And, yes, I'm sad about Sabri. And disappointed with some shoddy communication while at the same time hopeful that things can improve. Like those early era Facebook statuses, with Forest 'it's complicated'.