The mystery of 2021/22: Anything possible, for good or bad

Forest this season? Well, it could be anything really couldn't it? As Chris Hughton's Reds prepare to be sent to Coventry, it's perhaps no exaggeration to say that the full range of possibilities are open for the 2021/22 campaign - from promotion right down to relegation.

Youthful flair gives cause for optimism

If your glass is half full - and the cusp of the season is the rare occasion where this is commonplace - there are things to cling to ahead of the curtain raiser. Firstly, there are a couple of exciting young attacking talents waiting to be unleashed. Alex Mighten has had a taste of first team action and now looks ready to blossom. Brennan Johnson has matured nicely in the testing environment of League One and looks more than ready to step up. Both could and should start. Beyond them, the loan experience gained by the likes of Jordan Gabriel and Tyrese Fornah has raised hopes that squad depth could be offered by our rising stars - and that expensive loan signings can be targeted where they're most needed.

Then there's the prospect of a (cross everything) fully fit Joe Lolley and the chance for Lewis Grabban to make a fresh start and put a season of injuries and poor form behind him. The lack of impact from these two went a long way to explaining our paucity of goals last season. Finding their pre-Covid form would go a long way to sorting our biggest problems.

For now - and let's not jinx things - we've kept hold of Mighten and Joe Worrall despite Premier League interest and the squad is also shorn of some of its expensive chaff, bringing down an eye-wateringly high wage bill a tad. The bomb squad is diminishing and the young players are growing in stature.

Signings? Well, as we saw last season, they can be overrated. Too many additions makes it hard to build a team and we've got to stop our addiction to the signing sugar rush, as fans and as a club. The 2002/03 and 2010/11 play-off pushes came without a swathe of arrivals. Anyway, Ethan Horvath might well keep Brice Samba on his toes - and one or two additions might occur now that Premier League clubs are concluding their businesses, so it's not as if we can't attract new additions like, ahem, some other clubs.

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Welcome to The Reds, Ethan Horvath 👊

🌳🔴 #NFFC

— Nottingham Forest FC ❤️ (@NFFC) July 13, 2021

Chris Hughton has had time with his squad and can bring all of his know-how and experience to bear in a wide-open league where every team has been circumspect in the transfer market. If this season becomes a case of 'making the best of what you've got', Hughton should be an asset.

If all that comes together, where could it end up? A well-drilled Hughton side with a solid base, bright young attacking talents and fit and firing key players could threaten the upper echelons of the table. Without additions - and the wait for these could go on throughout the month - there's a couple of key gaps (hello left back, my old friend) that could be a concern. Plus, even the most optimistic fan would have to accept that the relegated trio of Sheffield United, West Brom and Fulham begin a long way ahead in terms of playing talent and financial might. Add in a Bournemouth side who probably should've got their act together better last time out and you'd probably think the upper limit would be one of the last couple of play-off spots.

But, that's if everything clicks and goes well. Only those with the most Garibaldi-tinted of spectacles could ignore the fact that, well, that might well not happen. The half empty glass has to at least be contemplated.

The worst case scenario

Let's not forget that we really weren't far away from being one of the worst three teams in the division last season. We won the same number of games as bottom-of-the-table Sheffield Wednesday and scored fewer goals than all of the three clubs that fell through the dreaded trap door.

At face value, we've made no signings to improve that shot-shy team. We've also lost the passing maestro who got us playing - although keep everything crossed that James Garner could return for an encore - and have no fit senior full backs (or at least none that we actually want at the club). The likes of Gabriel, Mbe Soh and Richardson might grow into those roles - or they might find that the Championship is a baptism of fire and struggle to handle the division's deadliest wingers. Our strength last season was our defence - but there is a chance that the quartet fielded by Hughton this time around won't be quite as solid and that even that asset is lessened.

Lewis Grabban will turn 34 in January and might well not be able to hit the heights of two seasons ago - and Lyle Taylor's showings last campaign were distinctly disappointing. Without a significant sale, it seems unlikely that we'll be able to add to our attacking arsenal and there are definitely question marks around the men leading the line. Behind them, inexperienced attackers might find the Championship a tough environment in which to flourish - and we'll need to be patient while the potential of Johnson and Mighten translates into performances.

A Covid-hit pre-season reduced the match practice Hughton was able to have - while the threat of bigger bids for Brennan Johnson or Joe Worrall will only go away once the window shuts. The club do seem to have targets in mind if the money comes in - but losing a key player in the early weeks of the campaign could be de-stabilising, especially if it's Worrall and the first choice defence is significantly weakened.

Hughton might be experienced - but he's up against other wily old heads in the likes of Mick McCarthy, Nigel Pearson, Gary Rowett and old Colin. Yes, there are few great teams at this level but there are lots of streetwise solid sides that could threaten if things go their way. Not only does Hughton have a lot of competition, he'll also be under big pressure to deliver. A slow start and some dull performances and he'd soon be facing that all-too-familiar managerial pressure narrative. There's been lots of positive talk from the off-the-field appointments, but we'll soon see if that's really just PR if and when the chips are down.

So, if rookie full backs are exposed, a stodgy midfield fails to find flair and the strike force continues last season's 'form', you have to accept that rock bottom for this squad could well be in the bottom three.

Yeah, I know, not exactly what you want to hear in a pre-season preview. But it's worth contemplating that 4th right through to 24th are possible. The bottom three relies on a lot going wrong, yes, but only as much as the play-offs rely on an awful lot going right. The answer will, probably, lie somewhere in the middle of those two extremes. How close to 'half full' and 'half empty' really does depend on how much the coaching staff can tap into the potential of our younger players, what happens next in the transfer market, the patience of the ownership, the performance of our rivals and, as ever, luck.

Hughton, we have a problem

Are Forest better than last season? Right now, that's a tough question to answer. For me, too many people have rushed to proclaim that the answer to this is definitely yes - and in doing so are missing what a tricky job Chris Hughton actually has on his hands.

Of course, we all hope that the team will be better than the last campaign. It's also true that there's reason for optimism among the 14 faces that were snapped up during the summer shopping spree. Instead of relying on unproven players to make their mark from the bench or having a squad packed with out-of-favour faces, we've now got a batch of individuals who have the pedigree required to succeed in the Championship.

But the simple fact of signing good players isn't enough. We do have a better squad now - but it's now up to the new manager to translate that collection of individuals into a team that can be more successful than the 2019/20 vintage. 

And that's far from being a done deal. Matty Cash was the clear and deserved winner of the player of the year crown and it's not easy to just move on from losing your best performer. His energy and dynamism going forward had the power to change the course of a game and that has been sorely missed. His athleticism and determination at the back also shut the door on many a dangerous attack too and contributed to our clean sheet tally.

None of that is to criticise Cyrus Christie who seems a solid enough replacement. We're starting to show signs of playing to playing to his strengths too - and his excellent crossing ability looks an asset. But the blasé assumption that a team can easily get better without its best player grates on me slightly. 

It isn't just Cash either. Consider the spine of the side for Lamouchi's nearly men. Cash was the star man (running down the right, as per the song), but Ben Watson was the leader. The former Watford man orchestrated events on the pitch and made the deep midfield berth his own. His streetwise play undoubtedly helped us to turn tight games into victories and brought a bit of calm. Don't get me wrong, I accept that it was probably right to move on from Watson. It's certainly unlikely that he could keep up the pace at this level for too much longer. But we need to accept that his replacements won't necessarily be like-for-like and might require us to slightly alter the way we play. There's another blasé assumption that a team can ditch its leader - who started many attacks - and just get better.

Second behind Cash in the player of the season race was Lewis Grabban. The wispily bearded marksman became the first player to net 20 goals since the 2002/03 season. He did so despite often feeding on scraps for a counter-attacking team that didn't create an abundance of chances. Given that we only scored one more goal as a team than bottom of the league Hull, it was clear that we were over reliant on Lewis to deliver in the last campaign. This season, however, has been a struggle. Poor form and transfer speculation were followed by an injury, leaving the team shorn of its crucial focal point. 

Lyle Taylor looks a more-than-decent addition - and is starting to find his rhythm in Hughton's team. He was clearly a big part of the back-to-back victories before the international break and seems an excellent signing. But, again, expecting the side to get better without the man who was so integral to our fortunes last season is another lazy assumption that cannot go unchallenged. 

Missing the spine of Sabri's side

If midway through the last campaign you'd have said Forest would miss Cash, Watson and Grabban for a game you'd have been worried. Now add in the injury to Joe Worrall to the mix too and you've suddenly got a side in want of a new spine. Scott McKenna looks a smart acquisition - but it'd be nice to try him with Worrall rather than instead. Joe might've attracted some boo boys online for his injury time mistake against the Sheep - but that short-sightedness ignores the many other times that the academy graduate saved our bacon. He's also another vocal presence who could've helped new faces to bed in to the side.

Tiago Silva was also a key part of Sabri's seventh place side. I wasn't ever quite certain whether we got the best from him or found his ideal position - but he turned out in 47 league and cup fixtures and you can't argue that he wasn't another key cog. Again, the new additions should be able to fill his boots but, for now at least, we're still searching for a midfield formula that works and gives the right balance between solidity, energy and creativity. 

To my mind it does a disservice to Hughton not to reflect on the fact that many of the building blocks of last season have been taken out of the team. Remove a centre half, midfield general, star striker, marauding full back and versatile midfielder out of any first eleven and they'll struggle. There's been too much talk about confidence and play-off hangovers and not enough about this for my liking.

The starkest evidence of the rapid change to the team comes when comparing the recent dour Middlesbrough defeat to the Leeds home win - the high water mark of the Sabri Lamouchi regime. Just three players from the team that bested Biesla's boys in February - Brice Samba, Tobias Figueiredo and Sammy Ameobi - also started at the Riverside against Colin's mob. That's not ideal for a club that's supposed to be building on what was started last season.

Adding 14 signings might help in the medium-to-long term but in the short term it creates many selection headaches that will take weeks to fix. My non-scientific theory is it takes one game for every signing made to get close to knowing your ideal first XI...but that's not factoring in the disruption of a managerial change on top of all of that. 

I don't want to get too 'doom and gloom' about all of this - I think Hughton is probably ahead of schedule in terms of building a fresh side - but it's definitely worth us reflecting on the scale of what the manager has got to contend with. It's why we should accept that things might be a bit stodgy and patchy for a few more weeks yet while he tries to establish firmer foundations after a poor start to the season. If we don't accept this, we're in danger of expecting miracles. Again.

Forest this season? No-one knows

The Championship is famously a league of 'known unknowns'* - an unpredictable battle between flawed combatants whose dreams are often bigger than their talents. Forest's situation, therefore, is pretty fitting. The outcome of the 2019/20 campaign rests on a series of known unknowns of our own - factors that make a mockery of the prediction game and that none of us can be sure of.

Will Sabri Lamouchi flourish in English football? Will he cope with the 'win or else' pressure at the City Ground? Can he impose his style on the squad? Can our signings hit the ground running - especially those jetting in from other leagues? Will he be able to hit on a settled side in spite of a big squad? Will we have luck when it comes to injuries of key players?

There are probably more questions - but those six unanswerable conundrums show why it's impossible to be certain how we'll do this campaign. Only time will tell, yet it's quite strange that people who've never watched Lamouchi sides in action for a sustained period or ever seen more than a YouTube package of Rafa Mir or Tiago Silva are able to be certain in their opinions.  

My biggest gripe this summer has been the scale of the change needed. Getting 12 players in is, in part at least, a sign of failure. A team with serious hopes of mounting a promotion challenge this campaign really shouldn't need such surgery. The more players you sign, the more time you need to knit it all together and the longer it'll take to understand the best formula. This has been a continuation of a policy that has brought in 52 players in the last five windows (counting summers and Januarys). 'Throw a load of players in and hope something sticks' seems more like wishful thinking than anything worthy of the name 'strategy'.

Once again, we're asking a manager to squeeze 2-3 years work into one. But, once again, we've changed the man at the helm and a new manager was always going to want a fresh start - especially when the club has had no fixed style or plan. Savvy clubs seem to recruit a manager to fit their squad and style to get the most from their assets - we let a manager choose a new way every time and the bloated squad is a result of that. 

Still, that all sounds like I'm down in the dumps and I'm not. There's been a fair bit of negativity around since the closure of the transfer window and I can understand that people feel we've left ourselves short of backup up front (especially given Grabban's fitness battles). Yet some of the reaction has been over the top. Given the constraints of FFP we were surely never going to get a second 'main' striker in the door. The forward line of Grabban flanked by Joe Lolley and Albert Adomah is (on paper at least) an upgrade on last season - and Sammy Ameobi seems a decent sub to cover any of that trio. Lolley and Adomah will have to get goals - as will the rest of the midfield - to supplement Grabban but, above all else, the wingers and the creative midfielders need to feed Lewis. You feel that if he doesn't get 20 goals it'll be as much their failure as his (injury notwithstanding).

The front three, Carvalho and the full backs should all have the makings of team that could challenge. The uncertainty over the defence and heart of the midfield - for now at least - means it's tricky to know if that framework will have a solid foundation to rely upon. These also happen to be the areas where it's difficult to hide if you're not up to speed (I'll never quite forget poor old Kyle Ebecilio disintegrating in front of our eyes). When people talk of the intensity and energy of the Championship, it's the battle here - 'earning the right to play' - that they're on about. Silva, Semedo, Bostock and Sow will be tested - as will whichever combination of central defenders end up being first choice (I can't help but feeling that the new manager wants his centre halves to be more comfortable on the ball than Benalouane).

Aro Muric might have had a nightmare debut, but he's been brought in to help with the team's style as much as anything else. He deserves a chance to put that behind him and show if he can make a difference and set the tone for a new way of playing that builds from the back. It's brave and it needs patience - something few involved with the club have shown in recent times. Having apparently courted Manchester City heavily, maybe the club's hierarchy will be keen to let this experiment play out a little?

I've always tried to see the positive with new managers. I did think that there was a chance that O'Neill could have given us a lift. Yet the club's subsequent recruitment policy probably proves that it was right to move to a head coach in the mould of Lamouchi. If we're going to shop overseas and put together a squad of assorted players for a manager to try to knit together then it's clearly more a job for someone like Sabri. Whether you liked O'Neill or not, his sacking can be seen as a failure of the current regime to still properly 'get' the Championship. He was another short term fix for a division that hasn't rewarded our short termism - another man asked to work miracles who proved unable to do so.

Keeping a manager for a season would be nice - but so too would replacing one manager with another who is willing and able to work with his predecessor's blueprint. Signing another 20 players in the next two windows will be as much of a sign of failure as the presence of yet another manager in the hot seat.

Yet let's not dwell on the inevitable 'manager pressure' narrative yet. We've got an exciting front line, some intriguing new acquisitions (yes, I'm guilty of watching too many Bostock through balls on YouTube) and we're not stuck with Matt Mills and Michael Mancienne at the back, whoever ends up playing there. I've got no idea where and how we'll end up - no-one truthfully does. Let's at least try to enjoy it for a bit though. 

*With apologies to Donald Rumsfeld. And to everyone reading this for a dated and probably irrelevant cultural reference.