Half term report: Steve Cooper's big January begins early

Give us a chance lads. If you're going to have a season defining January, at least give us the opportunity to have a naff New Year countdown before kicking off, will you? In truth, the apparent departure of Djed Spence back to parent club Middlesbrough seemed as inevitable as Neil Warnock blaming the officials for a defeat. Yet, for news to come on New Year's Eve - and be sparked by a harsh Football League stance against Chris Wilder's men - was an unexpectedly early reminder of how big the next few weeks are.

It all seemed so simple after seven games didn't it? Six defeats and one draw meant the task ahead was clear. We were in a relegation battle and faced a long slog. I looked at teams bottom of the league after six games and found that in the last ten years four had been relegated and the average finishing position was 20th. So, it wasn't terminal, but it was interminable. A strong air of 'here we go again'.

Yet we're all aware by now that Steve Cooper's stunning start has changed the conversation. Up until the last two defeats, the ex Swansea-boss had top of the league form and a points tally that took us inexplicably to the edge of the top six. It's been said a lot elsewhere, I know, but it's worth heralding the massive turnaround in attitude, mentality and tactical flexibility Cooper has engineered. His refreshing mindset has permeated all levels of the club and led to a side that can actually attack and entertain after a descent into the doldrums of drabness. His reign has been one great celebratory fist pump that has roused us from a sullen slumber.

Steve Hodge on #nffc Head Coach Steve Cooper:

''He's brought this group together from being an unhappy group of mainly younger but some senior players to a group of players who never give up and seem happy with life at the moment and the results bear that out''. pic.twitter.com/6bZPd7K2yh

— BBC Nottingham Sport (@BBCRNS) December 30, 2021

All of a sudden, a season in which survival would be a success turned into something else. Not only that, but the lack of decent teams at this level even meant that the campaign almost posed an opportunity that would be too good to miss. Just when you think you can relax and enjoy it, there comes the looming pressure and angst that is as much of a fixture of following Forest as the whiff of dodgy burgers on Trent Bridge or the sound of Colin Fray saying 'nothing doing' on commentary.

But, where do we go from here? Can we capitalise on a crap league and ride the crest of a wave into the Promised Land - or will we slip away back towards that 'average finish of 20th' that was the best we could hope for in September?

The fact is, either really could happen and much depends on what happens in January.

If Spence is gone for good - and the picture is far from clear as I type - then he has to be replaced quickly. We'll miss the fact he brought an energy and dynamism to the full back spots that was on the Matty Cash spectrum. Given that the threat of his departure has been raised often you'd like to think Dane Murphy will have had a short list of lung-bursting full backs ready. This is the first window where we may be able to judge the American's influence over transfer strategy and, while shopping in January is a mug's game really, it's important that he can pull a rabbit or two out of the hat if we're to rediscover the momentum we had pre-Boro.

The negative version of January also sees one - or, whisper it quietly, both - of Joe Worrall and Brennan Johnson depart to the Premier League. The sums spoken about for Brennan so far are laughable (buzz off Brentford) - but there's nothing to say someone such as Newcastle might decide to panic buy a prospect or two just to show off their chequebook. Losing our most explosive attacking threat or an influential leader at the back would be a blow that would be difficult to recover from. Any new recruits in their place might take time to get up to speed or might just turn out to be inferior. If any club has learned that new players do not necessarily equal an improvement it's surely ours.

But, if we kept at least two of the three above? And if Dane's a smart shopper? And if Max Lowe can get fit? And if our rivals have their players poached instead? Well, then it could be a different story. 

In recent weeks we have seen there are a couple of gaps that need to be filled even with Spence, Johnson and Worrall at the club. We need quality, not quantity - and one decent attacking winger (left sided please Santa) and a striker would make a big difference. 

The rumoured arrival of Keinan Davis would be interesting - not least because Villa have stuck by him for a long while and have shown a belief in an ability that a cursory glance at his Wikipedia page can't do justice to. An injection of pace and power is certainly not to be sniffed at and would be an upgrade on Lyle Taylor's contribution. 

Cooper will know from 2019/20 with Swansea that an astute January addition can make a difference. His signing of Rhian Brewster on loan brought 11 goals in the second half of the season and catapulted his side into the play-offs (I forget who missed out). Indeed, in 2010/11 the same club drafted in Fabio Borini in March on loan and were propelled into the play-offs with him scoring six in eight starts (I forget who they beat over two legs). A similarly impactful arrival could put us firmly on the 'glass half full' trajectory.

The games in January matter too. The cup is largely irrelevant - but a good performance and avoiding a big defeat to Arsenal could be a morale boost. A thrashing on the telly could drain optimism and leave us on a downer. Then there's the Sheep to come too - and we all now what an outsized influence those games can have on the positivity at the club - again in either direction. 

Barnsley (home) and Cardiff (away), meanwhile, are games that contenders find a way to win and sides that can't cope with expectation and pressure find a way to mess up. Cooper's early run was under the blissful freedom of zero expectation - something that has evaporated thanks to his success so far.

My gut says we're short of what's required to reach the top six - not least in terms of the time needed to build a side/club. But my head also says that a wide open Championship season such as this leaves open outcomes that should otherwise be fanciful.

At the start of the season, I said the range of possibilities for Forest were anything from 4th to 24th. After seven games, 4th was beginning to look daft - but Cooper's troopers have at least shown that I was right to have faith in the fact that, if everything clicked, there was talent at the club. 4th is probably still our upper ceiling and, while you'd like to think a relegation battle should be a distant memory, a slide into a sad lower third finish is still on the table too if we're not careful. 

We won't know which season ending we've selected at the end of January. But, come the end of the current campaign, we'll surely look back on this next month as being significant in deciding the outcome.

The mystery of 2021/22: Anything possible, for good or bad

Forest this season? Well, it could be anything really couldn't it? As Chris Hughton's Reds prepare to be sent to Coventry, it's perhaps no exaggeration to say that the full range of possibilities are open for the 2021/22 campaign - from promotion right down to relegation.

Youthful flair gives cause for optimism

If your glass is half full - and the cusp of the season is the rare occasion where this is commonplace - there are things to cling to ahead of the curtain raiser. Firstly, there are a couple of exciting young attacking talents waiting to be unleashed. Alex Mighten has had a taste of first team action and now looks ready to blossom. Brennan Johnson has matured nicely in the testing environment of League One and looks more than ready to step up. Both could and should start. Beyond them, the loan experience gained by the likes of Jordan Gabriel and Tyrese Fornah has raised hopes that squad depth could be offered by our rising stars - and that expensive loan signings can be targeted where they're most needed.

Then there's the prospect of a (cross everything) fully fit Joe Lolley and the chance for Lewis Grabban to make a fresh start and put a season of injuries and poor form behind him. The lack of impact from these two went a long way to explaining our paucity of goals last season. Finding their pre-Covid form would go a long way to sorting our biggest problems.

For now - and let's not jinx things - we've kept hold of Mighten and Joe Worrall despite Premier League interest and the squad is also shorn of some of its expensive chaff, bringing down an eye-wateringly high wage bill a tad. The bomb squad is diminishing and the young players are growing in stature.

Signings? Well, as we saw last season, they can be overrated. Too many additions makes it hard to build a team and we've got to stop our addiction to the signing sugar rush, as fans and as a club. The 2002/03 and 2010/11 play-off pushes came without a swathe of arrivals. Anyway, Ethan Horvath might well keep Brice Samba on his toes - and one or two additions might occur now that Premier League clubs are concluding their businesses, so it's not as if we can't attract new additions like, ahem, some other clubs.

✍️

Welcome to The Reds, Ethan Horvath 👊

🌳🔴 #NFFC

— Nottingham Forest FC ❤️ (@NFFC) July 13, 2021

Chris Hughton has had time with his squad and can bring all of his know-how and experience to bear in a wide-open league where every team has been circumspect in the transfer market. If this season becomes a case of 'making the best of what you've got', Hughton should be an asset.

If all that comes together, where could it end up? A well-drilled Hughton side with a solid base, bright young attacking talents and fit and firing key players could threaten the upper echelons of the table. Without additions - and the wait for these could go on throughout the month - there's a couple of key gaps (hello left back, my old friend) that could be a concern. Plus, even the most optimistic fan would have to accept that the relegated trio of Sheffield United, West Brom and Fulham begin a long way ahead in terms of playing talent and financial might. Add in a Bournemouth side who probably should've got their act together better last time out and you'd probably think the upper limit would be one of the last couple of play-off spots.

But, that's if everything clicks and goes well. Only those with the most Garibaldi-tinted of spectacles could ignore the fact that, well, that might well not happen. The half empty glass has to at least be contemplated.

The worst case scenario

Let's not forget that we really weren't far away from being one of the worst three teams in the division last season. We won the same number of games as bottom-of-the-table Sheffield Wednesday and scored fewer goals than all of the three clubs that fell through the dreaded trap door.

At face value, we've made no signings to improve that shot-shy team. We've also lost the passing maestro who got us playing - although keep everything crossed that James Garner could return for an encore - and have no fit senior full backs (or at least none that we actually want at the club). The likes of Gabriel, Mbe Soh and Richardson might grow into those roles - or they might find that the Championship is a baptism of fire and struggle to handle the division's deadliest wingers. Our strength last season was our defence - but there is a chance that the quartet fielded by Hughton this time around won't be quite as solid and that even that asset is lessened.

Lewis Grabban will turn 34 in January and might well not be able to hit the heights of two seasons ago - and Lyle Taylor's showings last campaign were distinctly disappointing. Without a significant sale, it seems unlikely that we'll be able to add to our attacking arsenal and there are definitely question marks around the men leading the line. Behind them, inexperienced attackers might find the Championship a tough environment in which to flourish - and we'll need to be patient while the potential of Johnson and Mighten translates into performances.

A Covid-hit pre-season reduced the match practice Hughton was able to have - while the threat of bigger bids for Brennan Johnson or Joe Worrall will only go away once the window shuts. The club do seem to have targets in mind if the money comes in - but losing a key player in the early weeks of the campaign could be de-stabilising, especially if it's Worrall and the first choice defence is significantly weakened.

Hughton might be experienced - but he's up against other wily old heads in the likes of Mick McCarthy, Nigel Pearson, Gary Rowett and old Colin. Yes, there are few great teams at this level but there are lots of streetwise solid sides that could threaten if things go their way. Not only does Hughton have a lot of competition, he'll also be under big pressure to deliver. A slow start and some dull performances and he'd soon be facing that all-too-familiar managerial pressure narrative. There's been lots of positive talk from the off-the-field appointments, but we'll soon see if that's really just PR if and when the chips are down.

So, if rookie full backs are exposed, a stodgy midfield fails to find flair and the strike force continues last season's 'form', you have to accept that rock bottom for this squad could well be in the bottom three.

Yeah, I know, not exactly what you want to hear in a pre-season preview. But it's worth contemplating that 4th right through to 24th are possible. The bottom three relies on a lot going wrong, yes, but only as much as the play-offs rely on an awful lot going right. The answer will, probably, lie somewhere in the middle of those two extremes. How close to 'half full' and 'half empty' really does depend on how much the coaching staff can tap into the potential of our younger players, what happens next in the transfer market, the patience of the ownership, the performance of our rivals and, as ever, luck.

Scrappy New Year: Why Hughton's search for stability won't be pretty

Right now, Chris Hughton has the opposite problem to Sabri Lamouchi. The Frenchman had a clear first team - or at least a core of 14/15 players - but lacked the squad depth to provide variety or add fresh legs. It was, in my opinion, a big factor in why we faded away so badly. His successor has a squad...but is yet to properly forge a formidable team from it. We remain, in an attacking sense, a collection of individuals in need of a pattern and plan and, as a result, are finding goals hard to come by.

That perhaps shouldn't come as a surprise. Adding so many players in one mad splurge was always going to create a headache. Not least when it's unclear how much strategy went into the recruitment. Why, for example, do we have so many wide players who would prefer to start on the right and drift inside onto their left foot? Why a glut of muscular, obdurate midfielders and not enough creators? Why didn't we get a balance of youth and experience? 

Miserable 2020 form has continued

Yet, while it takes time to find a workable team out of the current crop of players, it's increasingly dawning on us all that survival in the Championship might well be the best we can hope for this season. Perhaps understandably, that's causing us all to get a bit grumpy. But I am worried that this grumpiness will lead us into another blind alley if we're not careful.

Let's not beat about the bush; the Hughton era has been disappointing. Four wins from 17 games have continued the form of a miserable 2020 (although, incidentally that's two more wins than a certain someone in their first 17 games). There hasn't really been a new manager bounce or honeymoon period and there have been some pretty terrible games in that run.

Some of the responsibility for recent results clearly lies with the new manager - but I'd say that's only a small fraction. While I can understand why people are disappointed, I'm frustrated at the depressingly familiar air to the critique of current matches.

The club's strategy encourages 'negative' football

I'm seeing a lot of talk, for example, about Chris Hughton's negativity as a manager. Now, don't get me wrong; he's definitely a cautious coach and that's been evident in his career so far. But we need to ask ourselves why we end up in the circular debate with managers. Why is it that Sabri Lamouchi, Martin O'Neill, Aitor Karanka and Mark Warburton were all accused of the same thing? I'm all for fair criticism but ask yourself - is it really Chris Hughton's negative tactics and team selection that are annoying you... or is it the club's broader (lack of) strategy?

We're forever getting sucked into the here and now. This team selection, the 'tactics' in this game, the next signing, the next manager. I'm absolutely guilty of this too. However we need to look at a few home truths. Nottingham Forest is not a football club that's geared towards producing free flowing, exciting teams. That comes from the very top. The goal for each of those managers is 'promotion yesterday'. Faced with an ambitious goal and an unrealistic time frame, all have decided that the circumstances require pragmatism. A solid side that can compete with the physical challenges of the Championship has been the aim - with the hope that a spot of individual brilliance from a couple of key attackers can get enough results. Do you want to have to watch another new face take a dozen games to come this same conclusion again? I don't.

An attractive side with a clear identity could take three seasons to build. Along the way there'd be some poor results, naive defeats to streetwise Warnock-style sides and the need for patience and support - especially for the team's creative players. We'd lose young talent along the way and have to invest wisely in replacements. The owners don't want to sit through all of that and wait for a Brentford/Swansea to emerge. Unfortunately their short termism has rubbed off on a significant portion of the fanbase too - and too many of us wouldn't be prepared to get behind a project like that.

Building from the back

So, we are where we are. And, in those circumstances, Chris Hughton is probably trying to do the right thing. He's building from the back and trying to patch up the leaky, error-ridden defensive displays that could easily take us to League One if we're not careful. Let's not forget that player sales, injuries and form have torn up much of the foundations Sabri established last season. He's also having to patch something together during a relentless schedule - and it's probably no wonder that the run of defeats ended when we stopped playing the division's best sides. 

Let's face it - most people's aversion to defensive football disappears if it starts to pick up results. Sabri's tactics weren't a problem when they earned wins over the likes of Fulham away or Leeds at home. The thing people hate most is 'losing football'.

If Hughton can get Scott McKenna fit, you'd think he'd land on a workable back four. But we're still not quite there. With the defence a concern, the balance in midfield has erred towards the defensive. I'd like to see something a bit more dynamic from this part of the pitch - but I'm not the person who will have to deal with the fallout when we get overrun and lose games. I'm also a little bit concerned that we're left with lots of similar central midfielders for whom creativity isn't a strong suit. Perhaps, for now, Hughton feels he's playing to his strengths in midfield (while trying to get something more from Cafu).

While the process of building firm foundations continues, we'll all have to expect stodgy, scruffy performances such as The Karanka Stalemate against Birmingham (aptly that has a ring of a duff Boxing Day film). 

𝘏𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘭𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵𝘴: 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝘃𝘀 𝗕𝗶𝗿𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴𝗵𝗮𝗺

The key moments from yesterday's draw at The City Ground ⚽️ #NFFC pic.twitter.com/PRAHQm9jCs

— Nottingham Forest FC (@NFFC) December 27, 2020

Teams that go down lose lots of those games, teams that go up win them.

Yet teams that survive and begin moving in the right direction do have to find the quality to edge enough of those messy games at home - especially if they aren't to put undue pressure on themselves when faced with tricky trips to the likes of Stoke and Preston. 

By now, we'd all hoped that the ability to throw Lolley, Knockaert and Taylor on from the bench to win a game would be telling. Yet, there we are - still a squad without a team. While that situation stands - and while the bottom three is within touching distance - we're destined for a Scrappy New Year. 

The difficult second album? Sabri set for another Championship challenge

This year’s fixture release had more than a whiff of ‘the end of Bullseye’ about it, didn’t it? With little prospect of actually going to games just yet, we’ve been presented with ‘what we could’ve won’ were there no pandemic. Instead of an inappropriate speedboat, we’re missing out on trips to QPR, Huddersfield and Blackburn.

Of course, the hipster argument is to shrug and say that the fixtures never matter. We’re going to play everyone twice, so why care which order the games come in? Well, that’s alright if you assume that being a football fan involves cool-headed logic. Doesn’t being a fan really involve getting slightly over-obsessed by the tiniest detail? We care about shirt collars, formations, songs, silly stats and when we’re going to Reading. It might be ‘sad’, but who cares? I normally enjoy scouring through the schedule to map out possible away days (and usually to moan that the best trips are on rubbish days). But, this time even I can see that there’s little point getting too invested into what amounts to little more than a set of TV listings at the moment.
 
The fixtures aren’t the only thing that isn’t normal, of course. Having the same manager for two seasons in a row is arguably more of a surprise than having games played behind closed doors. Yet, here we are, on the cusp of a second season of Sabri as the Frenchman looks to wipe away memories of the catastrophic collapse at the end of 2019/20.

Transfer trio offer positive signs

 

The signs so far have been positive. I thought it was right to stick by Lamouchi and build on the foundations established last season – not least with such a short break between the two campaigns. Even if we’d wanted to do something drastic, it really wasn’t the right moment. We’ve recruited quickly – and smartly – to sign three free transfers to help too. In Jack Colback, Tyler Blackett and Lyle Taylor, we’ve captured experienced players with a proven record who will fight for first team roles and should add much-needed depth to the core group of potential starters. I won’t profess to know too much about the backroom appointments – but hopefully these have also been recruited in a bid to give extra support to a manager who has earned it.
 
This year has to be about evolution, not revolution. Signings also have to be about quality and not quantity and the work on the training ground needs to build on the good things about last season. This time last year, we were pondering a lot of unknowns. The manager proved himself worthy of more time while the likes of Brice Samba, Samba Sow, Yuri Ribeiro and Sammy Ameobi became established in the first team core – leaving us needing a couple of additions and depth, rather than scrabbling around trying to build again from scratch.

Not good enough at home

 

Chief among those, for me, is finding a plan to play at home. When the onus was on us to play on the front foot last season – and when there was an expectation to perform – we underwhelmed. We were, as I noted in the Famous Club’s post mortem, the division’s third best away team – based on points earned – but only the 13^th best at home. Indeed, we mustered five fewer points at home than in the 2016/17 season, when we only survived on the final day of the season. A little more creativity and flair in midfield seem key to this.
 
Some of the challenges awaiting Sabri and co seem straightforward to fix. We clearly needed better options from the bench to change a game – and a deeper squad capable of fitting into different formations against different opposition. For whatever reason, the likes of Alfa Semedo, Adama Diakhaby, John Bostock and Rafa Mir were never really able to offer a meaningful contribution on a consistent basis. The lack of options in the squad also meant we became over-reliant on a small core of first teamers who subsequently suffered from burn out as the long season wore on. It was abundantly clear we needed more firepower to support Grabban, fresh legs in the middle and a left footed defender to play three at the back if needed. With all of those secured, a number 10 and a winger are surely next on the radar.
 
The noises coming out of the club suggest the hierarchy accepts that some of the recruitment hasn’t quite been good enough and are keen to put that right. It is, however, important that we recognise that signings aren’t everything. Bristol City, for example, splashed the cash on Nakhi Wells in January and saw their promotion push fade away. We could easily have spent big in the mid-season window on decent players and still missed out and shouldn’t allow ourselves to believe this was the one simple answer to our problems. It’s crucial to both continue to blood youngsters and to coach the existing squad to improve. Who, for example, could be this year’s Matty Cash and take their game up a level? Ryan Yates? Alex Mighten? Brennan Johnson? With an eye-wateringly high wage bill and little FFP wriggle room, we have to find some of the missing pieces to the puzzle from within.

Changing the mentality

 

Yet, while it’s relatively straightforward to pinpoint the gaps in the team and squad, other issues might be less simple to resolve. The mentality of the players and their ability to perform under pressure has been questioned long before Sabri Lamouchi came to the club and remains so. The Stoke debacle only added to the sense that, when the chips are down, we struggle to cope. Even Lamouchi himself raised the fact that people had mentioned ‘typical Forest’ when we blew chances to cement a top six spot ahead of that last game. Which of us fans can truly say they’ve not thought ‘here we go again’ when we’ve conceded a goal or had a set back during a season. All too often that spills into moans and groans in the stadium or petulant comments to players on social media. Thanks to years of underperformance, we’re all stuck in a rut and need to get out of it. Last season offered both the hope that we were moving on from the mediocre days of recent times – and also proof for the pessimists that we’d somehow always find a way to mess things up. 
 
The end of season disaster could, if handled well, prove a powerful motivating message. The players could go out on a mission to put that behind them and go one better this time around. Yet, there’s also the chance that it could go the other way and be a millstone around our neck. You feel the manager, in particular, needs an early sign that the next campaign will be more a case of the former than the latter if he’s to retain the support of the ownership going forward – and keep sceptics at bay.

The challenge of the Championship

 

It’s hard, too, to know what to expect from our rivals. It’s been a long-held view of mine that the Championship is best seen as one big mid table. There’s so little gap in quality between top and bottom – and almost all of the teams at this level will harbour some sort of ambition to challenge at the top end of the table. Michael O’Neill’s Stoke – our final day nemeses – might well be on course to get themselves in the mix this time around, while I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mark Robins’ Coventry side continue their momentum after an excellent League One campaign. Those are two hunches of mine – but there’s a case to be made for most of the rest too. A truncated campaign, with some particularly crowded months (eight games in December, six in February) make the campaign seem tougher than ever to predict. Stamina, motivation and luck will all be needed – on top of skill, consistency and mentality – in a gruelling looking schedule.
 
It’s easy to fall into the sort of smug arrogance that other fans accuse of us of when looking ahead to 2020/21. While Watford and Bournemouth might not appear to be clubs of the stature of Leeds, West Brom or Fulham, we have to face up to the fact that they’ve both been run a lot better than us in recent years and shouldn’t be underestimated – especially not with parachute payments in their back pockets. Some have argued that ‘we’ll never have a better chance’ – but that’s based on judgements of our rivals that are to tricky to make before a ball is kicked and partly on ‘names’. 

Cash to go?

 

There is also, of course, an elephant in the room. A high profile departure is still likely during this window. You have to feel we’ve seen the last of Matty Cash in a Forest shirt and Joe Worrall might also find his way to the Premier League too. Like it or not, the way we’ve seemed to have approached the FFP challenge is to rely on players sales to plug a gap in the finances. We have to hope that a bidding war among top flight clubs can at least ensure we get a fair price for 2019/20’s deserved player of the year. We need a plan in place for how to plug the gaps if they go – and have to hope that we’re not stuck with a long-running and disruptive saga that goes to the last hour of the window.
 
There was – understandably – a lot of doom and gloom when the season ended. It felt like a missed opportunity and another play-off debacle to add to the Sheffield United, Yeovil and Blackpool list. Yet, while the manner of the failure was crushing, the truth was surely that we weren’t quite good enough to go up. Both teams that contested the final seemed a level above us – and we’d have needed an almighty flurry of transfer activity if we’d somehow managed to sneak through. Clearly, it would’ve been better to miss out in the play-offs with pride intact, but let’s not pretend that was a golden chance to go up with a side ready to strut its stuff in the top flight.
 
It’s also worth reflecting on the fact that, despite our understanding of ‘typical Forest’, end of season disasters haven’t always led to problems in the following campaign. We probably fear that a good side will be ‘dismantled’ because the Paul Hart side drifted apart after the Sheffield United play-off collapse. Yet the season after the Yeovil play-off shambles? We were promoted back to the Championship. After the Blackpool humbling? Another play-off campaign. I’m not saying we’ll definitely bounce back strongly next season – but there’s no reason to assume the worst automatically. We’re not ‘cursed’, we just haven’t quite yet been good enough.
 
Sabri’s second season should be a fascinating one. Let’s hope it end up being out-of-the-ordinary because of what’s achieved as much as for how it’s impacted by the pandemic. 

 

 

 

Forest this season? No-one knows

The Championship is famously a league of 'known unknowns'* - an unpredictable battle between flawed combatants whose dreams are often bigger than their talents. Forest's situation, therefore, is pretty fitting. The outcome of the 2019/20 campaign rests on a series of known unknowns of our own - factors that make a mockery of the prediction game and that none of us can be sure of.

Will Sabri Lamouchi flourish in English football? Will he cope with the 'win or else' pressure at the City Ground? Can he impose his style on the squad? Can our signings hit the ground running - especially those jetting in from other leagues? Will he be able to hit on a settled side in spite of a big squad? Will we have luck when it comes to injuries of key players?

There are probably more questions - but those six unanswerable conundrums show why it's impossible to be certain how we'll do this campaign. Only time will tell, yet it's quite strange that people who've never watched Lamouchi sides in action for a sustained period or ever seen more than a YouTube package of Rafa Mir or Tiago Silva are able to be certain in their opinions.  

My biggest gripe this summer has been the scale of the change needed. Getting 12 players in is, in part at least, a sign of failure. A team with serious hopes of mounting a promotion challenge this campaign really shouldn't need such surgery. The more players you sign, the more time you need to knit it all together and the longer it'll take to understand the best formula. This has been a continuation of a policy that has brought in 52 players in the last five windows (counting summers and Januarys). 'Throw a load of players in and hope something sticks' seems more like wishful thinking than anything worthy of the name 'strategy'.

Once again, we're asking a manager to squeeze 2-3 years work into one. But, once again, we've changed the man at the helm and a new manager was always going to want a fresh start - especially when the club has had no fixed style or plan. Savvy clubs seem to recruit a manager to fit their squad and style to get the most from their assets - we let a manager choose a new way every time and the bloated squad is a result of that. 

Still, that all sounds like I'm down in the dumps and I'm not. There's been a fair bit of negativity around since the closure of the transfer window and I can understand that people feel we've left ourselves short of backup up front (especially given Grabban's fitness battles). Yet some of the reaction has been over the top. Given the constraints of FFP we were surely never going to get a second 'main' striker in the door. The forward line of Grabban flanked by Joe Lolley and Albert Adomah is (on paper at least) an upgrade on last season - and Sammy Ameobi seems a decent sub to cover any of that trio. Lolley and Adomah will have to get goals - as will the rest of the midfield - to supplement Grabban but, above all else, the wingers and the creative midfielders need to feed Lewis. You feel that if he doesn't get 20 goals it'll be as much their failure as his (injury notwithstanding).

The front three, Carvalho and the full backs should all have the makings of team that could challenge. The uncertainty over the defence and heart of the midfield - for now at least - means it's tricky to know if that framework will have a solid foundation to rely upon. These also happen to be the areas where it's difficult to hide if you're not up to speed (I'll never quite forget poor old Kyle Ebecilio disintegrating in front of our eyes). When people talk of the intensity and energy of the Championship, it's the battle here - 'earning the right to play' - that they're on about. Silva, Semedo, Bostock and Sow will be tested - as will whichever combination of central defenders end up being first choice (I can't help but feeling that the new manager wants his centre halves to be more comfortable on the ball than Benalouane).

Aro Muric might have had a nightmare debut, but he's been brought in to help with the team's style as much as anything else. He deserves a chance to put that behind him and show if he can make a difference and set the tone for a new way of playing that builds from the back. It's brave and it needs patience - something few involved with the club have shown in recent times. Having apparently courted Manchester City heavily, maybe the club's hierarchy will be keen to let this experiment play out a little?

I've always tried to see the positive with new managers. I did think that there was a chance that O'Neill could have given us a lift. Yet the club's subsequent recruitment policy probably proves that it was right to move to a head coach in the mould of Lamouchi. If we're going to shop overseas and put together a squad of assorted players for a manager to try to knit together then it's clearly more a job for someone like Sabri. Whether you liked O'Neill or not, his sacking can be seen as a failure of the current regime to still properly 'get' the Championship. He was another short term fix for a division that hasn't rewarded our short termism - another man asked to work miracles who proved unable to do so.

Keeping a manager for a season would be nice - but so too would replacing one manager with another who is willing and able to work with his predecessor's blueprint. Signing another 20 players in the next two windows will be as much of a sign of failure as the presence of yet another manager in the hot seat.

Yet let's not dwell on the inevitable 'manager pressure' narrative yet. We've got an exciting front line, some intriguing new acquisitions (yes, I'm guilty of watching too many Bostock through balls on YouTube) and we're not stuck with Matt Mills and Michael Mancienne at the back, whoever ends up playing there. I've got no idea where and how we'll end up - no-one truthfully does. Let's at least try to enjoy it for a bit though. 

*With apologies to Donald Rumsfeld. And to everyone reading this for a dated and probably irrelevant cultural reference. 

10 reasons why we didn't get promoted

Sunday's 1-0 win marked a slightly tepid end to the season. Perhaps it was a fitting end for a campaign that faded away. Yet the end of the 2018/19 campaign marks the right moment to weigh up the last 46 games.

The excellent Paul Severn has put together a superb summary which right attracted a lot of attention at the weekend. Christian Brown's considered reply demonstrated a fascinating alternative take and, hopefully, that fans are capable of disagreeing politely while still passionately making their case.

Those two takes deliver a big picture assessment so, in a bid not to cover the same ground, I'm going to try to answer the question 'why didn't we get promotion this season?'. I'm not necessarily saying that we should have achieved this, but feel it's worth looking back at the moments and themes that led us to 9th place, eight places and 13 points better off than 2017/18 but still short of achieving the dream.

It took us a while to get going

At the start of the season, Aitor Karanka was still searching for his best line-up. Nowhere is this more evident than the defence - with seven different back fours tried in the first ten league and cup games. The points haul from the first ten league games wasn't bad - better than in both Billy Davies play-off campaigns - but we were definitely still finding our feet in the opening encounters and were 11th after ten fixtures, two places below where we finished.

Grabban's strange season

The £6 million man had a funny first season in Forest colours. As Karanka searched for a winning formula in the early games, Grabban wasn't a guaranteed starter and he took until September 19th to net his first goal. From then until December 1 he went on a scoring spree (barring some penalties that are best not mentioned) and had 15 goals to his name after a brace in a home win against Ipswich. Injuries and the poor form of the team meant that he finished with 17 in total, however, and the side badly missed an on-form fit Grabban after Christmas. If the mid-September-to-December Grabban form had been replicated for the rest of the season, there's a very good chance that this alone could have earned us the extra points needed to squeeze into the play-offs.

Coping with pressure

Is it any wonder that Forest's best performance of the season - the 3-0 mauling of Middlesbrough - came once the chance of making the top six had completely disappeared? The inability to cope with pressure and expectation held the side back throughout. Karanka spoke about this after the League Cup victory over Newcastle, when he suggested his players found it much easier to express themselves against Premier League opponents. He said: "The game today has been, for me, confirmation that the team is not performing well because we are under big pressure." He added: "When we approach a game under pressure we are not ourselves." The inability to cope with the pressure of being favourites continued to dog the squad, including in late season showings away to the likes of Ipswich and Rotherham.

Defensive crisis

We'll never know what Martin O'Neill would have done in January if he'd already had a settled back four to start with. By the end of January, however, we didn't have the use of any of the four centre halves who's started the campaign - with Dawson, Figueiredo and Hefele all injured and Fox sold. Stable, promotion challenging sides shouldn't really be rebuilding the heart of their defence in the middle of the campaign. The incoming players - Yohan Benalouane, Alex Milosevic and Molla Wague - have all done pretty well in fairness but it's a crisis we could've done without and it made it impossible to have a settled side. Dawson's leadership and assured passing were badly missed after his season-ending injury in the December 1 Ipswich win.

We've changed manager again

Yet again we've reached the end of the season with a different manager in the dugout. Aitor Karanka's departure was disappointing and felt unnecessary. We'll never know exactly what went on between the boss and the board, but there was the distinct suggestion that he fell out with the club hierarchy after being put under pressure to deliver more. His departure seemed inevitable by the end and the dragged out nature of his demise didn't help matters. With Martin O'Neill in the dugout we were back to the 'experimentation stage' of the first ten games with some decidedly mixed results. You felt that if - and it's a big if - we were going to succeed this season we needed to stick to the Karanka 4-2-3-1 blueprint and have a coherent style and strategy. Some fans are less keen on O'Neill than others, but the fact is that he ended the campaign in ninth, exactly where we were when he took over. He probably needed a miracle to win promotion and fell some way short of that. The football played under him was poor at times and there's definite room for improvement there. My personal view is that the destabilising effect of a change was costlier than anything else and we've got to break the cycle of change at some point. Others clearly believe the choice of replacement was a reason in its own right. Whichever side you're on, the management situation clearly contributed.

Trying to 'force it' in games

Aitor Karanka's aim was supposed to be to deliver promotion by the end of his contract (ie next summer) yet it's clear that the club wanted to push to deliver this ambition quicker. I can't help but feeling that the pressure to deliver immediate results forced both managers into some oddly gung ho substitutions to try to force results. The QPR home game stood out for this and I do wonder if a crazy push for goals is what caused Karanka to send Gil Dias on to try to see out the game at Carrow Road when more sensible options were available to him. At Ipswich, O'Neill threw forwards onto the pitch despite the fact we didn't have control of the ball to create chances for them.

The Carvalho conundrum

At the start of the season it was clear that the club could field an XI that would be an improvement on the previous campaign - just not by how much. Much was made of the club's £25 million splurge - and we quickly grew tired of the 'big spending Nottingham Forest' tag - but, in truth, most of the investment went on two people, Lewis Grabban and Joao Carvalho. The 22-year-old Portuguese playmaker has lit up the last few games his vision, passing and trickery, yet it hasn't been plain sailing. The rigours of the Championship presented a physical and mental test for the £13 million man and he was showing signs of needing a rest by Christmas. However, he's actually done better with the physical side of the game than I thought he would and has shown a strong work ethic too. Martin O'Neill took a while to find a role for Carvalho and without him our play was too unimaginative, becoming too heavily reliant on Joe Lolley. Whether the manager liked it or not, we'd put much of the focus on Carvalho by investing so heavily in him and we had little option but to turn to him for some magic on the ball. Carvalho will be better for the experience of this season - but you feel we need to find a little more creativity elsewhere too. It's too simplistic to say that we'd have definitely won more games with Carvalho in the side, but it's apparent that we're already overly-reliant on him to be able to play good football.

The misfiring cavalry

While Grabban, Carvalho and Lolley make for an impressive attacking triumvirate it's fair to say that things didn't pan out that well for the men meant to supplement that firepower. Gil Dias flattered to deceive - and blotted his copybook with a disastrous sub-showing at Norwich. Diogo Goncalves struggled with the physical test of the Championship while Hilal Soudani - a useful 'supersub' early on - had his season curtailed by injury. Karim Ansarifard showed glimpses of getting to grips with the demands of playing up front in the Championship towards the end of the season, but couldn't quite fill a Grabban-shaped hole in the team and left us turning to Daryl Murphy all-too-often. The loan signing of Leo Bonatini promised much and delivered little too. The likes of Norwich rescued results wit strong comebacks - our misfiring cavalry made those rousing finishes tougher to muster.

Ill discipline

We might have finished 9th overall but we finished rock bottom of the division's fair play league. Jack Colback's 15 yellow cards and Jack Robinson's 11 contributed more than their fair share of the team's 102 bookings (57 more than Swansea) and both players suffered damaging suspensions. I don't think we're necessarily a dirty team, but cutting out the cards would certainly be a big help next season.

The nature of the league

Spending £25 million alone was no guarantee of success and that's partly due to the harsh reality of the Championship these days. A collection of big clubs with big parachute payments - and smaller well-run ones with a smart plan - mean that it'll take more than one summer spree to help us stand out from a crowded field of contenders. I'm not sure I was ever confident that there weren't more than six better teams in the division.


Right, well, that's my two penneth. What do you reckon? Do you agree that these ten factors held us back in 2018/19?

A 'what if?' starting XI

Imagine if the purchases of Hilal Soudani and the Portuguese trio Joao Carvalho, Diogo Goncalves and Gil Dias didn't come off. Yes, I know that's pretty pessimistic - I can't help it after years of bitter experience - but bear with me on this.

If that worst case scenario were to play out, we could now line up with a starting XI which looked something like this:



Now, I don't know about you but even this pessimistic old sod is fairly pleased with that 'what if?' team.

Importantly, it marks a step up from last season in several key areas. There's a more solid defence - on paper at least - with the likes of Michael Mancienne and Matt Mills cast aside and the unpredictable Armand Traore removed. There's also real leadership with the returning Michael Dawson and Ben Watson and, in Lewis Grabban, someone with a good goalscoring record at this level. Jack Colback and Costel Pantilimon bring experience and a winning mentality that was also missing this time last year.

I'd back that team to do better than the one that took to the field in 2017/18, especially if the centre halves gel and we can cut out the daft defensive errors that have plagued us for far too long now. With Fox, Worrall, Bridcutt, Brereton, Murphy, Clough and Guedioura on the bench there'd be a bit of back up and competition too.

Would it challenge promotion? Maybe not. That'd depend on whether or not Cash could continue his excellent progress, whether Watson has the legs to manage a full season and whether Grabban could bear the vast bulk of the goalscoring burden.

That, however, is where the imports come in. I'm not going to profess to having become an expert in the new recruits, but their pedigree suggests that they all have the talent to shine at this level.

Soudani looks the sort of character who could become a cult hero, with the sort of cheeky confidence and style that fans love. He could compete for any of the three forward positions and offer something a little bit different to the attack.

Joao Carvalho has a 'record signing' tag to live up to but he Gil Dias and Diogo Goncalves need to bring the sort of pace, vision and all-round quality to help us to dominate teams - or find a way to win the sort of tight encounter that is common in this league.

The Championship is far too unpredictable to be certain of anything at this stage. Who, for example, knows what to expect from Aston Villa after a tumultuous summer? It seems, however, that our overseas attacking imports would need to shine if we were to be among the contenders at the top. The good news is that our recruitment drive this summer has now set in place the solid foundations for a more stable Championship side regardless. That should help to take the pressure off the new boys as they look to settle in to a new club, league and country and give them a platform from which to shine.

My pessimism is still keeping me in check, but I am looking forward to seeing this side come together. Aitor Karanka has been backed. He'll know that he now needs to translate his squad's promise into points.

'Only' pride to play for? Rubbish

In football, it's often said that there's 'only pride left to play for'. That cliché has certainly been applied to Forest ever since relegation was mathematically impossible (and before for some brave souls).

Yet that cliché is rubbish for two reasons. Firstly, 'only pride' implies that pride alone is a poor reward. That completely ignores the fact that, outside of the rarified world of the Champions League superpower clubs, wins are not exactly a throwaway joy that happen every week. I certainly haven't become blasé about Forest winning matches and every victory is worth cherishing. On top of that, every game matters from the perspective of the individuals on the pitch - their personal stories, milestones and careers - as well as those in the stands. Every match is someone's first, someone's 'one for the season', someone's 'big game' because of a personal rivalry or just their escape from the humdrum of work. If people are being paid to play and people are paying to watch then of course it matters and there's also a sense of professionalism and duty in carrying on when others in the table continue to fight out the promotion and relegation races.

Ben Brereton prepares to finally end a club record goal scoring drought with a penalty against Ipswich Town.

Secondly, and importantly in the context of Forest's current ambitions, seasons don't happen in a vacuum. The way you finish one season can set the tone for the start of the next. You may be thinking that there are 'two games left to the end of the season' but Aitor Karanka is more likely to be thinking that he's got 20-25 games to whip us into shape so that we're challenging at the top end of the table come Christmas. That may seem ridiculous, but you can't ignore the fact that the owners will want to see drastic progress on the pitch next season and - rightly or wrongly - will expect a promotion challenge at least. In the grand scheme of things, there aren't a huge amount of games to transform us from bottom third strugglers to top third challengers and there's no time to lose in doing the work required to get there.

In that respect, this end of season spell should prove invaluable for the Spaniard. He's had a long time to assess the relative merits of both the existing playing staff and his first batch of new signings. These games should have given him chance to think about how he wants to play and who fits into his plans and where.

If that is the case then it will mark a big change from previous seasons. The five years of Fawaz all saw seasons fizzle out at the end - all with different managers in charge from the men who sent out a side on the opening day.

I wrote two years ago about the end of campaign flops for Seat Pitch. To update the list, we've now seen:

• 2012/13: One win and four draws in the last eight games as Billy Davies' initial run of one draw and six wins came to a crashing halt.
• 2013/14: Two wins in the last 16 games as Billy was sacked and Gary Brazil was left holding the baby for the incoming Stuart Pearce.
• 2014/15: No wins in the last eight games as Dougie Freedman's honeymoon period fizzled out.
• 2015/16: Three wins, and just 12 goals, in the last 15 games as the Freedman reign ended and Paul Williams stepped in.
• 2016/17: Four wins - and nine defeats - in the last 16 games as we left it until a nail-biting last day of the season to stay up on goal difference.
• 2017/18: Four wins from the last 16 games as we've limped past last season's points total with two games to spare.

Yet the stats only tell part of the story. It's not just the poor results that have been disappointing in these end-of-season slumps, it's been the fact that much of this time has been wasted. The club has been all-too-happy to let things drift and wait to press the reset button yet again, often going through the motions while fielding loanees that stand no chance of returning.

The challenge for the current ownership and management is to shake us out of the current cycle of underperformance. By making the games at the end of this season count - in that we can take away some useful lessons for next season - we can make a start towards the overall goal. 

The fact that Karanka will still want to make drastic changes to his playing staff is pretty clear. However, the more changes required, the harder it will be to knit it all together. You'd like to think that he's established a few of the building blocks for his side. If Ben Watson's leadership, Liam Bridcutt's dynamism, Joe Lolley's mazy wing play, Matty Cash's boundless energy and Tobias Figueiredo's solid defending all feed into the team next season then it'll be easier to hit the ground running. The whole squad will be used to his shape and tactics by now too.

Beating Barnsley 3-0 on a wet Tuesday night at the City Ground.

Plus, if we can avoid having to sign squad players and back-up options then we can save the precious transfer kitty for strikers and expensive creative players. The owners have shown every intention of wanting to spend money in the summer, but the high price commanded by top strikers will mean that we still need to be wary of the dreaded FFP rules. Karanka should know exactly who he can utilise and where by now.

On the flip side, Karanka should have also seen enough to avoid sentimentally hanging on to players who need to be moved on. Michael Mancienne, for example, probably exemplifies the mediocrity that the club needs to move on from. Mark Warburton's failure to fix a defence that was so obviously leaky was a costly error (although perhaps he was preoccupied with filling the goalscoring void left by the departing Assombalonga?). 

So, against Bristol City and Bolton - just as in the 3-0 win against Barnsley - there's both pride to play for and the medium to long term future. There's no 'only' about either of those things and by taking both factors as motivation we can hopefully sow the seeds to avoid a seventh successive slump at the end of next season.

Karanka needs ruthlessness and results

Never mind words, we're starting to see what the Marinakis regime will be like in practice. The sacking of Mark Warburton after a month of poor form with the team in 14th was followed by the sanctioning of ten new signings in the January transfer window. The team, you feel, now needs to show the sort of ruthlessness on the pitch that the club has shown off it.

That certainly wasn't the case in Saturday's horror show against Hull. The 2-0 defeat to the previously-toothless Tigers left open the very real threat of a relegation battle. The last ten games have now yielded a pitiful five points - repeat that in the next ten and there's no doubt that we'll be in a mess.

It was baffling - but so very Forest - that we'd signed so many new players and were still watching the same old rubbish, not least at the back. Every new manager comes into the club and learns the hard way that Danny Fox can no longer cope at left back, it seems, while we merely have to be subjected to the same painful lessons as they play out in front of us. Michael Mancienne isn't a player I particularly rate but, my position notwithstanding, he is clearly woefully out of form and ill-suited to the role of captain. After Hull's first goal you could see several of their players geeing each other up but there were no such signs of encouragement on our side, from the captain or anyone else. Joe Worrall, too, is a young player who looks like he might need some time out of the firing line to fine tune a few things, with a worrying tendency to make mistakes creeping into his game.

In fairness to the defence, it can hardly have been easy for them. From Freedman's emphasis on defensive solidity to the gung-ho days of Philippe Montanier and the short passing mantra of Mark Warburton, these players have borne the brunt of dramatic changes in style in recent seasons. Now again, half way through a season, we're expecting them to adapt to another manager and yet another way of playing.

It'd perhaps be impatient to expect all of the new signings to be match fit and ready to go, but it did still feel odd not to see more of them against Hull. Karanka and the board were clearly concerned enough by the quality of the squad to make drastic changes in January, but the team selection didn't seem to reflect this. I can't help thinking that the introduction of Ben Watson or Lee Tomlin, for example, might have helped to signal the change in mentality and attitude that we badly need. As Karanka himself said, when Hull's goal went in we were a beaten side. The fact that that goal came after nine minutes - and that Hull are a poor side - said everything you need to know about Forest's lack of confidence and poor powers of recovery.

Whether the selection was wrong or not, however, Saturday's game was worrying. Managing one shot on target all game (it's now only five on target in our last three and no goals at home in the last five) showed a lack of fight. Had we bombarded the opposition's goal in the second half and lost 2-1, say, we might at least have had something to cling to. The team also looked a mess. What exactly was the plan going forward? Who was going to score the goals we needed? Out of form top scorer Kieran Dowell did not look at home on the left. Under Warburton, the criticism was that we lacked a plan B to change games when we were losing. On Saturday we didn't appear to have even a plan A.

Aitor Karanka has a big job on his hands to turn this around. He has the pedigree to suggest he can do the job - and he's been backed in the transfer market too. We have to hope that, given time, Karanka's ideas and his new personnel can deliver the results needed to avoid getting sucked into a basement battle. The January window certainly saw players come in in a greater volume and quality than seen in previous years.

It could be argued, of course, that signing ten new players is, in itself, an alarming sign. No club should need quite such drastic surgery mid way through a season, certainly not if things are going well. However, the signing spree did see us snap some quality players several of which - Ben Watson, Joe Lolley, Jack Colback - have experience of promotion to the Premier League. On face value, the glut of midfield additions flies in the face of the fact that we can't currently score goals and we're shipping them at an alarming rate at the other end of the pitch. Midfield changes can, of course, screen the back four better and help to create more chances and it has to be hoped that Karanka can find a formula that does both of those things. He'll have to be ruthless - that word again - and that might mean leaving out talented academy graduates, an out of form Dowell, some of his own new signings or even a combination of all three.

We've often argued that a manager will need two or three transfer windows to truly shape his squad. Maybe the owners have heard this and sought to deliver two or three windows worth of signings for Karanka in one go? I certainly think they'll be expecting to see some results between now and the end of the season. Rightly or wrongly, does anyone think they'll be happy to hobble on, scrape 15/16 points and limp to safety? I actually think they believed that switching Warburton for Karanka left open the outside chance of a play-off push. If that was the case, we're all seeing how deluded that was now.

While you'd like to think it's not a case of 'top six or out' this season for Karanka, I still fear he'll need to show real signs of progress if he's to continue going forward. If that sounds daft, it's because football is daft. The owners want a promotion challenge next season, that much is now clear.

The immediate priority is, however, to stop the rot. Games against Hull, Burton, Reading and QPR had looked like an opportunity to pick up some points - now they look like games that could drag us into the dogfight if we're not careful. With ten new players in the bag, it'll take Karanka a long time before he knows his best 11 but he needs to find a formation and combination to work from; one that can tough out the odd draw. Burton might well be bad at home, but Hull were in horrible form away too and no-one should be in any doubt of Forest's magical ability to breathe life into an out-of-form opposition.

Still on the road to recovery from intensive care

Intensive care. I can't help but keep thinking back to those two carefully chosen words, offered up by incoming Forest chairman Nicholas Randall to describe the club he was coming to.

In fact, the QC's open letter to fans in June is probably the most important document issued by the club in years. Reading it back now, halfway into the new regime's first season, the whole of this passage also stood out:

"Although we believe in aiming high, we also need to be realistic. The league table does not lie and, whether we like it or not, the club only just escaped relegation this season. To use the medical analogy the club is in intensive care. It is our job to ensure that we nurse the club back to health. It is rare in life for anything of value to come easily. So although we are all excited about the prospects for the club, we must make sure that each step taken is based on strong foundations. Furthermore, as with any journey in life, there will be mistakes made and some setbacks are also inevitable. We will no doubt stumble and occasionally fall, but we promise you that we will keep getting up again until the job is done."

This paragraph is pretty much the prism through which the whole season can be viewed and accurately outlines some of what we've seen since.

So, how are we getting on? Well, while Randall has been quiet since, you'd assume he'd have a slightly sunnier outlook for the club's medical condition.

Off the field, we feel like a proper club again. The commercial and marketing team has worked well, with smart offers and effective communication playing their part in helping to fill the City Ground. The efforts to reach out to fans and the community are also important and noteworthy. The change has been marked - and we've seen pretty much everything we called for in the chaotic mess of the Fawaz era be introduced by way of structure. The foundations Randall mentions have certainly been laid - we have to hope that they prove themselves to be strong when tested.

Am I wrong to still be a little worried about the allegations that persist around Evangelos Marinakis?  Clearly he should be treated as innocent until proven guilty, but there's a nagging concern that it isn't good for the club for him to be under question.

Yet off the field matters are, thankfully after the last couple of years, not primarily the cause of debate.

Results and points have, for me at least, been largely positive. After 24 games of last season we were five places lower in the table and five points worse off. In the calendar year to date, our league results read: P46 W17 D5 L24. Replicate that across 2016/17 and we'd finish with 56 points and in last season's table that would have been enough to finish 16th - again five points and five places better off. Given the steady downward trend under Fawaz, that's not to be sniffed at (and 16th in this division is our average league position this century).

Of course, football isn't about stats alone. Look beyond the numbers and it's fair to say that the team has shown flashes of real style. The QPR game was a joy to watch and, when it clicks, the larger City Ground crowds are treated to some exciting passing football - the sort of play we've often yearned for while under 'pragmatic' bosses such as Megson or Freedman.

Most of the signings made have been positive too. Instead of splurging money on the likes of Nicklas Bendtner, we've invested in younger, hungrier players with the capacity to improve (with the exception of the smart signing of Daryl Murphy to part-fill the Assombalonga void).

We've also continued to promote our academy stars. In some respects, the team has the feel of the early days of Paul Hart and we have to hope it bears similar results as the young players learn how to succeed in the tough environment of the Championship.

Yet, you'd be foolish to suggest everything that we've seen has been positive. The team loses far too many games and is, undoubtedly, in the midst of a sticky patch. Both within individual games - and within the season - they need to show the strength of character to get themselves out of a hole.

In many games, the team can fall flat - with matches such as Cardiff and Sheffield Wednesday at home petering out into tame defeats. The first goal is too significant, confidence a fragile commodity and ruthlessness lacking. All are predictable with a young side but all need work going forward.

The defence - and the protection is receives - is also a concern. We're on course to ship even more goals than last season's 72 at the current rate (one stat that doesn't point to progress). Conceding that many goals is always likely to undermine whatever you're doing at the other end. The biggest failure in the summer was the inability to significantly strengthen in this weak area. Mark Warburton and Frank McParland had seen what we were like last term and ought really to have acted. Of course they may have been outbid by some of the freer spending members of the division (the likes of Birmingham perhaps) and they may have been constrained by the still-significant straitjacket of FFP, but it'd be nice to see a defensive reinforcement or two come through the door in the next month.

It also feels like there's perhaps a lack of leadership on the field, with captain Michael Mancienne seemingly not the figure we need to rally the troops. I appreciate that not every side can have a Stuart Pearce but a stronger leader, in whichever mould, would be welcome.

Yet, while it's fair to raise these concerns I do feel that these are all 'growing pains' associated with the work needed to bring the club out of intensive care. These are the mistakes, setbacks and stumbles that Randall predicted. I personally feel we've shown enough potential and progress to suggest that these things can be overcome in time. Anyone who expected a top six challenge this season must have been smoking something potent.

But you only need to go on Twitter after a game to see that there are some who don't feel this way. Sadly, some of the level of debate after a game is childish. There are those who, whether they'd admit it or not, appear to wish they had Fawaz back. That way they could have their public mardy and be heard again. Maybe they became addicted to the knee-jerk soap opera off the field and miss their fix of drama? Opposition fans must read some of the posts and laugh.

There are clearly some who don't like Mark Warburton. I feel that might partly be down to his character. He's not a charismatic talker in press conferences and, for some it seems, that matters. If he could joke, bluff or divert his way through an interview in the style of a Holloway or Warnock you feel some might be placated. Most managers spout the odd bit of rubbish, but those who do it with a twinkle in the eye or through a catchy soundbite seem to get away with it more. As it is, people hang on Warburton's every word and become unusually irritated by the odd bit of jargon or management speak.

There are those who feel the style of play is foolish too. I feel he's certainly chosen a brave way to play - and definitely not the easiest path to success - but the potential for exciting, dynamic, stylish football is there. Get better at it - as Warburton's Brentford did - and we could be on to something special. As Randall put it: "It's rare in life for anything of value to come easily."

It's also worth bearing in mind the esteem with which the manager is held by the ownership. Randall's letter explicitly stated that the regime wanted to encourage a passing game and praised the manager for his work to move towards this. It promised him time and stressed: "We believe that in Mark Warburton we have not just a good fit but the perfect fit for the role of manager of the club."

If Warburton were to leave - something which is hopefully fanciful in the current moment - you feel that the regime would want another manager like him. The style of play and approach to transfers is here to stay, regardless of the man in the dugout. The FFP question still looms too - with the club clearly wanting to unearth bargain players who can grow in stature and, in turn, value. A chequebook manager wouldn't fit the bill here in the post-Fawaz era.

Much has improved since the 'intensive care' letter. We have, for me at least, shown a decent level of progress out of the ashes of a relegation battle and the sale of a star striker. But, you don't step straight out of intensive care and start running a marathon. The road to recovery is going to require more hard work and more patience.

Frustration as Forest suffer St Andrew's setback

In retrospect, one of the very first moments of Saturday's match at St Andrew's was highly significant. With barely a minute on the clock, the Blues' robust and hard working midfielder Maikel Kieftenbeld committed a foul on Tendayi Darikwa. Whether it was intended to lay down a marker or not, it did. Birmingham were physical, hard working and disciplined, we huffed and puffed but found all three traits tough to overcome.

This fledgling Forest side has a habit of starting sluggishly. We'd even had to overcome a ropey opening before steamrollering QPR last time out. On Saturday we were unable to settle before a Che Adams strike from a tight angle handed the advantage to the home side. It was an advantage we were never able to wrestle back - at least not in terms of the only metric that really matters.

Still, while Kieftenbeld's tough tackle might have set the tone for the home side, you can't help feeling that we contributed massively to our own downfall. A seemingly needlessly conceded corner from Mancienne and some sloppy all round play belied an early malaise that proved our downfall. Ben Osborn looked to have been fouled in the build up to the goal, but not before he'd already made a big error in giving the ball away. From his mistake, it was all-too easy to carve us open and for Adams to be presented with the chance he took with aplomb.

The shot-shy hosts had the worst goalscoring record in the league - and this was just the ninth goal of the campaign for them. It would have been interesting to see how Birmingham would've reacted had they not netted early on - you sense the tension on and off the field might have really worked in our favour. Yet, instead, we gifted them a goal and gave them something to hold onto and build from. At Hillsborough and Villa Park we'd also passed up the chance to twist the knife into a fragile host - it's a ruthlessness that we have to learn in this dog eat dog league.

We shouldn't denigrate the hosts for being physically strong. They played a (peaky) blinder here, getting tackles and interceptions in, being disciplined and breaking forward with purpose and threat. They might not have troubled Jordan Smith too much, but our defence could never rest on its laurels, particularly in the first half.

The likes of Kieran Dowell and Barrie McKay can learn much from tests such as this. Dowell is a gem of a player - as I've written before - but has to be stronger. He's a big lad and, in time, will learn to use his frame to his advantage. Only really Eric Lichaj in the Forest side seems to be able to use his body to shield the ball and keep an opponent at bay on a consistent basis. Eric's no giant and I'm sure he had to learn the hard way too.

Being physically strong as a team doesn't have to mean playing rough football - it's what allows you to impose yourself and dictate the way you want to play. In that sense, it's every bit as important to the success of Warburton's style as the silky passing and technique that his players have demonstrated at times.

All of these traits - being tougher physically, not letting an opponent off the hook and being alert from the opening whistle - need to be learned to give us a harder edge. If we'd had that edge and eradicated some sloppy play we'd have surely walked away with at least a 0-0 from Saturday's game. Indeed, we have to start coming away with a point from games that we can't manage to win.

Still, there's a danger that we let the result completely cloud our thinking. Ben Brereton's performance, for example, would've been viewed differently had the game been 0-0. What might've been labelled as a 'decent shift' became an 'ineffectual' performance through the prism of defeat. This was certainly a physical test for him. He might not always have been successful but it has to be hoped that days such as these will contribute to a learning curve for a player born in April 1999.

Brereton's deflected drive (from a delightful Dowell through ball), Dowell's long-range effort, Jason Cummings' late strike and a Zach Clough snapshot were all half chances and evidence that we were never out of the game. Yet, perhaps because we were behind, the play was often a little too rushed and we never got close to the passing groove of the Rangers romp two weeks before. While it's too much to ask for us to hit those heights every week, the style of play still offers a source of optimism and we weren't dreadful on Saturday - certainly not in comparison with some of the displays in recent years.

Yet, while it's clear to see progress in the cold light of day, that's not to say it's not intensely frustrating in the heat of the battle. When you know the players can do better - and have shown they are capable of much better - it's hard not to be left shaking your head at times. Many of the 2,800 travelling contingent were far from happy at the dogmatic insistence that every corner had to be taken short, for example. While I'm sure it made sense as a tactic - Birmingham would've had the beating of us in the air - it didn't really work and became predictable and easy to crowd out and defend. Could a clever run, a decoy or an accurate cross overcome a height advantage? Perhaps that's one to go back to the drawing board with.

Still, it's early days for this side. Like the beginning of the Paul Hart team, when David Prutton, Gareth Williams, Andy Reid et al found their feet, there will be frustrating afternoons to come. Hart's young guns came out stronger the other side, there's no reason to suggest that this bunch won't too.

The Championship schedule is unforgiving. Saturday should be a reminder, if needed, that there's much more for us to learn.