10 reasons why we didn't get promoted

Sunday's 1-0 win marked a slightly tepid end to the season. Perhaps it was a fitting end for a campaign that faded away. Yet the end of the 2018/19 campaign marks the right moment to weigh up the last 46 games.

The excellent Paul Severn has put together a superb summary which right attracted a lot of attention at the weekend. Christian Brown's considered reply demonstrated a fascinating alternative take and, hopefully, that fans are capable of disagreeing politely while still passionately making their case.

Those two takes deliver a big picture assessment so, in a bid not to cover the same ground, I'm going to try to answer the question 'why didn't we get promotion this season?'. I'm not necessarily saying that we should have achieved this, but feel it's worth looking back at the moments and themes that led us to 9th place, eight places and 13 points better off than 2017/18 but still short of achieving the dream.

It took us a while to get going

At the start of the season, Aitor Karanka was still searching for his best line-up. Nowhere is this more evident than the defence - with seven different back fours tried in the first ten league and cup games. The points haul from the first ten league games wasn't bad - better than in both Billy Davies play-off campaigns - but we were definitely still finding our feet in the opening encounters and were 11th after ten fixtures, two places below where we finished.

Grabban's strange season

The £6 million man had a funny first season in Forest colours. As Karanka searched for a winning formula in the early games, Grabban wasn't a guaranteed starter and he took until September 19th to net his first goal. From then until December 1 he went on a scoring spree (barring some penalties that are best not mentioned) and had 15 goals to his name after a brace in a home win against Ipswich. Injuries and the poor form of the team meant that he finished with 17 in total, however, and the side badly missed an on-form fit Grabban after Christmas. If the mid-September-to-December Grabban form had been replicated for the rest of the season, there's a very good chance that this alone could have earned us the extra points needed to squeeze into the play-offs.

Coping with pressure

Is it any wonder that Forest's best performance of the season - the 3-0 mauling of Middlesbrough - came once the chance of making the top six had completely disappeared? The inability to cope with pressure and expectation held the side back throughout. Karanka spoke about this after the League Cup victory over Newcastle, when he suggested his players found it much easier to express themselves against Premier League opponents. He said: "The game today has been, for me, confirmation that the team is not performing well because we are under big pressure." He added: "When we approach a game under pressure we are not ourselves." The inability to cope with the pressure of being favourites continued to dog the squad, including in late season showings away to the likes of Ipswich and Rotherham.

Defensive crisis

We'll never know what Martin O'Neill would have done in January if he'd already had a settled back four to start with. By the end of January, however, we didn't have the use of any of the four centre halves who's started the campaign - with Dawson, Figueiredo and Hefele all injured and Fox sold. Stable, promotion challenging sides shouldn't really be rebuilding the heart of their defence in the middle of the campaign. The incoming players - Yohan Benalouane, Alex Milosevic and Molla Wague - have all done pretty well in fairness but it's a crisis we could've done without and it made it impossible to have a settled side. Dawson's leadership and assured passing were badly missed after his season-ending injury in the December 1 Ipswich win.

We've changed manager again

Yet again we've reached the end of the season with a different manager in the dugout. Aitor Karanka's departure was disappointing and felt unnecessary. We'll never know exactly what went on between the boss and the board, but there was the distinct suggestion that he fell out with the club hierarchy after being put under pressure to deliver more. His departure seemed inevitable by the end and the dragged out nature of his demise didn't help matters. With Martin O'Neill in the dugout we were back to the 'experimentation stage' of the first ten games with some decidedly mixed results. You felt that if - and it's a big if - we were going to succeed this season we needed to stick to the Karanka 4-2-3-1 blueprint and have a coherent style and strategy. Some fans are less keen on O'Neill than others, but the fact is that he ended the campaign in ninth, exactly where we were when he took over. He probably needed a miracle to win promotion and fell some way short of that. The football played under him was poor at times and there's definite room for improvement there. My personal view is that the destabilising effect of a change was costlier than anything else and we've got to break the cycle of change at some point. Others clearly believe the choice of replacement was a reason in its own right. Whichever side you're on, the management situation clearly contributed.

Trying to 'force it' in games

Aitor Karanka's aim was supposed to be to deliver promotion by the end of his contract (ie next summer) yet it's clear that the club wanted to push to deliver this ambition quicker. I can't help but feeling that the pressure to deliver immediate results forced both managers into some oddly gung ho substitutions to try to force results. The QPR home game stood out for this and I do wonder if a crazy push for goals is what caused Karanka to send Gil Dias on to try to see out the game at Carrow Road when more sensible options were available to him. At Ipswich, O'Neill threw forwards onto the pitch despite the fact we didn't have control of the ball to create chances for them.

The Carvalho conundrum

At the start of the season it was clear that the club could field an XI that would be an improvement on the previous campaign - just not by how much. Much was made of the club's £25 million splurge - and we quickly grew tired of the 'big spending Nottingham Forest' tag - but, in truth, most of the investment went on two people, Lewis Grabban and Joao Carvalho. The 22-year-old Portuguese playmaker has lit up the last few games his vision, passing and trickery, yet it hasn't been plain sailing. The rigours of the Championship presented a physical and mental test for the £13 million man and he was showing signs of needing a rest by Christmas. However, he's actually done better with the physical side of the game than I thought he would and has shown a strong work ethic too. Martin O'Neill took a while to find a role for Carvalho and without him our play was too unimaginative, becoming too heavily reliant on Joe Lolley. Whether the manager liked it or not, we'd put much of the focus on Carvalho by investing so heavily in him and we had little option but to turn to him for some magic on the ball. Carvalho will be better for the experience of this season - but you feel we need to find a little more creativity elsewhere too. It's too simplistic to say that we'd have definitely won more games with Carvalho in the side, but it's apparent that we're already overly-reliant on him to be able to play good football.

The misfiring cavalry

While Grabban, Carvalho and Lolley make for an impressive attacking triumvirate it's fair to say that things didn't pan out that well for the men meant to supplement that firepower. Gil Dias flattered to deceive - and blotted his copybook with a disastrous sub-showing at Norwich. Diogo Goncalves struggled with the physical test of the Championship while Hilal Soudani - a useful 'supersub' early on - had his season curtailed by injury. Karim Ansarifard showed glimpses of getting to grips with the demands of playing up front in the Championship towards the end of the season, but couldn't quite fill a Grabban-shaped hole in the team and left us turning to Daryl Murphy all-too-often. The loan signing of Leo Bonatini promised much and delivered little too. The likes of Norwich rescued results wit strong comebacks - our misfiring cavalry made those rousing finishes tougher to muster.

Ill discipline

We might have finished 9th overall but we finished rock bottom of the division's fair play league. Jack Colback's 15 yellow cards and Jack Robinson's 11 contributed more than their fair share of the team's 102 bookings (57 more than Swansea) and both players suffered damaging suspensions. I don't think we're necessarily a dirty team, but cutting out the cards would certainly be a big help next season.

The nature of the league

Spending £25 million alone was no guarantee of success and that's partly due to the harsh reality of the Championship these days. A collection of big clubs with big parachute payments - and smaller well-run ones with a smart plan - mean that it'll take more than one summer spree to help us stand out from a crowded field of contenders. I'm not sure I was ever confident that there weren't more than six better teams in the division.


Right, well, that's my two penneth. What do you reckon? Do you agree that these ten factors held us back in 2018/19?

Forest Five Asides: Support for Karanka, Burton, signings, corners, Appiah

With a third of the season already behind us, we're heading into the meat of the Championship season. After an up and down few weeks for the Tricky Trees, here are some thoughts on five talking points...

Gone for a Burton

The less said about the 'performance' at the Pirelli Stadium the better. Yet, I can't help but hope that the fourth round Carabao Cup defeat to Burton doesn't turn out to have a similarly destabilising effect as another recent Clough-inspired cup exit. February 16 2014 saw the Reds visit Nigel's Sheffield United side on a 16-match unbeaten run. A win would have meant that only a home tie against Charlton stood between the Tricky Trees and an FA Cup semi final. Despite going a goal up, Forest capitulated, failed to seize the moment and killed their momentum. Billy Davies never won another game in charge and was sacked just a month later.

I'm not suggesting that things will explode as badly as they did for Billy MK II, but it's a cautionary tale in how a poor cup defeat can have a knock-on effect if you're not careful. Momentum is difficult to build, but easy to lose. It was certainly frustrating to pass up a great chance to progress against Burton and it'll be tough to put that disappointment behind us when the league leaders are in town on Saturday.

Support for Karanka

One thing that was worth noting from Tuesday night - and in other games in fact - is the level of support from the paying punters for Aitor Karanka. He's attracted not one but two chants and both were audibly expressed by the travelling Trickies. Managers are rarely around enough to warrant such a privilege these days and while the support might, in part at least, come from a desperation for someone to stay around for a bit, that he is supported by the fans who attend games is not in doubt.

Is this significant? It's certainly worth bearing in mind when grumbles and murmurs begin on social media. It definitely ought to act as a reminder of the fact that Twitter is not always the best gauge of the entirety of fan opinion.

A goal from a corner

The Forest goal against Leeds United was a rare treat. Jack Robinson's header was the first goal from a corner since Dani Pinillos' injury time leveller in the 2-2 draw against Derby on March 18 2017 (thanks to Darren Morley for that shocking stat). That game - Mark Warburton's debut in the Forest dugout - feels a long time ago now doesn't it? The club's dismal record since is brought into sharp focus when you consider that we were the only team in all four English leagues and the top flight in Germany, Spain, France, Portugal, Italy and Holland not to score from a corner last season (stats here). That's on top of conceding the most goals from corners in the division too.

It all goes to shown that we make life hard for ourselves, missing out on a potential source of goals and a way to win the sort of tight game that is common in the Championship. Let's hope Robinson's goal is the first of many.

Lesser spotted signings

I wonder how long it will be before we see the most recent two additions to Aitor Karanka's squad? Claudio Yacob and Panagiotis Tachtsidis are both yet to make their Reds bow despite, apparently, being fit. With Jack Colback being suspended, might Yacob step up to make his bow on Saturday? Given his recent pedigree, you'd like to think that he'd have plenty to offer at this level.

It's certainly the case that, despite having an abundance of midfield talent at the club, we haven't quite found a combination that can consistently dominate teams and dictate the play. You feel that the balance is much better when we don't field two deep-lying 'destroyers' - and Watson and Colback doesn't feel like the best combination.

Arvin on target

There was one bright note to come from the Burton game, however, as 17-year-old Arvin Appiah stepped off the bench to net his first senior goal on his debut. It's great to see the Academy production line continue, and that's something that we can't afford to lose sight at a time when we've just seen a big influx of new signings. With Joe Worrall out on loan and Ryan Yates struggling for game time, it's important to see that the door is not shut on the club's young talent.

I'd like to see us have the confidence to field Appiah on the bench for league games. Especially given that we've had some games in which there have been three wingers among the substitutes and no strikers. It'd take some strange circumstances for us to need to bring on three fresh wingers and, given the size of the benches these days, it's surely worth having an attacking player up our sleeves.

It also made me feel pretty old to read that Appiah was born on January 5 2001 - a time when the rest of us were suffering the second season of David Platt.

A good start? Assessing Karanka's opening ten games

Ten games in to the season seems a fair time to take the league table seriously. It's no longer just a 'form table' and it's hard to argue that teams aren't where they deserve to be in the reckoning.

So, what does it show us? Forest sit in 11th on 15 points, five places, four goals and one point outside of the top six. Three wins, six draws and one defeat looks, to me at least, a pretty solid start and allows the club to continue to harness the positivity brought about through this summer's massive season ticket sales. 

It's always telling how quickly a narrative can turn in this league. Three games ago our record was one win, five draws and one defeat. The glass half full, Karanka advocates among the fanbase could trumpet this as 'just one defeat', while the glass half empty doubters could point to 'just one win'. In a febrile, impatient world, it could have gone either way.

That's what made those back-to-back home games so important, with wins against Sheffield Wednesday and Rotherham shifting the narrative to the 'half full' crowd. Indeed, the most optimistic of those fans can now throw in the league cup victories and hail the fact we've seen just one defeat in 13 this season. 

Yet, the back-to-back home wins did show the importance of victories when it comes to controlling the narrative. Draws can merely be added to the pile of 'winless' or 'undefeated' streaks but won't alone prove decisive. Turning those draws into victories is key if we're to build on this start. It's why we're 11th and no higher. 

You can never rest on your laurels, particularly at this stage of the season when the international breaks create intense mini runs of games. A draw against Millwall and a defeat to Middlesbrough and people would quickly point to 'three games without a win and spend two weeks feeling the pressure of the impending visit of Norwich City.

When considering the start to this season, it's also instructive to look at where we've come from. A haul of 15 points is actually our third best tally from the opening ten games since we returned to the second tier in the 2008/09 season. It's two points better off than both of the two play-off campaigns overseen by Billy Davies, and bettered only by Billy Mark II and Stuart Pearce - both seasons in which our start faded away badly. 

Indeed, in each of the last three seasons we've ended up with 12 points from ten games. While we're all hoping for better this season, we can't ignore just how far we've got to climb and the mediocrity that needs to be shaken off. We're probably trying to make three seasons progress in one here - although the owners may feel that their investment is enough to fast forward us to a promotion push this time around.

Here's our 'starters for ten' since 2008/09 in full:

• 2008/09 (Colin Calderwood): W1 D2 L7 5pts 24th
• 2009/10 (Billy Davies): W3 D4 L3 13pts 14th
• 2010/11 (Billy Davies): W2 D7 L1 13pts 11th
• 2011/12 (Steve McClaren): W2 D2 L6 8pts 21st
• 2012/13 (Sean O'Driscoll): W3 D5 L2 14pts 12th
• 2013/14 (Billy Davies): W5 D4 L1 19pts 4th
• 2014/15 (Stuart Pearce): W5 D5 L0 20pts 2nd
• 2015/16 (Dougie Freedman): W3 D3 L4 12pts 13th
• 2016/17 (Phillippe Montanier): W3 D3 L4 12pts 15th
• 2017/18 (Mark Warburton): W4 D0 L6 12pts 16th
• 2018/19 (Aitor Karanka): W3 D6 L1 15pts 11th

Set against our recent record, therefore, this season does stack up favourably. The league position and proximity to the top six is surely good enough too, especially now that the team selection appears to be relatively settled. We're also one point better off than Fulham were this time last season, for example. Performances have been promising, without always being convincing. The team has shown some character - and the squad depth has come in handy, with subs helping to turn games around. 

The foundations have, therefore, been laid for a decent campaign. The challenge now is to ensure that we build on this - rather than slip backwards - and turn draws into victories. Let's hope the glass is still half full in ten more games time.

Karanka's selection dilemmas: What have we learned about Forest so far?

I don't know about you but I can't help but notice that Aitor Karanka loves a good scribble and I'd be fascinated to know what he's furiously noting down in games. While it might well be his shopping list (milk, eggs, bread, full back), the chances are he's jotting down what he's learning about his team in the early season fixtures - and he might well be going to be getting through a few more notebooks yet.

The biggest criticism of the Spaniard so far is that he doesn't know his best eleven. Unless he was following in the footsteps of his mate Mourinho and being especially stubborn, surely even he'd have to admit this was true. Yet the arrival of 13 new players - albeit some returning after loan spells - was always going to require a settling in period.

While performances so far have been more mixed than results would suggest, you'd like to think the lessons of these early season notes will stand Karanka in good stead as he strives for the right formula (in terms of personnel at least, since it's fairly clear he wants to play 4-2-3-1).

So, what might he have learned so far? Here's my guess at the contents of Karanka's casebook:

Goalkeeper

Costel Pantilimon seems to be the settled choice in goal. Yet, while his towering presence at the back is welcome he does need to learn to keep his cool a little better. Opposition managers will certainly fancy their chances at putting him off at corners. Luke Steele looks to be a smart choice as experienced back up should the Romanian lose either his temper or his form and deserves to start cup games to keep sharp should his moment arrive.

Right back

Sam Byram looks to be an astute capture from West Ham. He was a classy performer for Leeds at this level and should be comfortable on the ball in both defensive and attacking positions once he's settled down. Darikwa has the athleticism required to be a modern full back, but probably lacks the decisiveness needed in both boxes to be first choice. In fact, the decision over Tendayi demonstrates the question the manager has to ask about all of his players - will he get me into the top six?

Left back

Left back a tricky position? Surely not? To say we've been here before is putting it mildly. In truth, it's too early to judge Jack Robinson but he'll probably be given the chance to make this position his own. However, we're probably going to be left with a dilemma in that Robinson struggles with the attacking side of the role and Ben Osborn lacks the defensive nous needed. Karanka, like countless managers before him, also wants to find a way to get the energy and drive of Osborn into his team and might well - at home at least - choose to use him as an attacking full back.

Central defence

Soft goals from crosses continue to find their way into the back of the Forest net at a worrying rate and whilst it's wrong to blame these solely on the central defenders it's fair to say we're not yet as solid in this area as we'd all like. As a defender himself, Karanka should have a decent sense of what is required here. So far he's stuck with Danny Fox and Tobias Figueiredo but it wouldn't be a surprise to see changes here soon. The Portuguese defender has looked a little rusty to me - perhaps showing the ill-effects of a shortened pre-season. He's misplaced the odd pass and has tended to rush into tackles or challenges that he shouldn't be getting dragged into, which has left us exposed at times. Fox, meanwhile, has earned praise for his performances and rightly so. Yet, this is probably the best that he can get and teams are getting wise to his raking cross field balls to the right wing. While I admire his Reds resurrection, I can't help but thinking that a Fox-led central defence probably isn't up to scratch for the top six (this question again and the standard the owners and manager have made clear we'll be judged on this campaign). I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see Michael Dawson and/or Michael Hefele blooded into the team soon to add strength and aerial prowess to the team. Hefele's bubbly personality might well help to settle a few nerves too.

Midfield

It seems increasingly clear that the manager has an 'either/or' choice when it comes to Jack Colback and Ben Watson. Fielding both makes us a little too defensive and pedestrian and we have a better balance when we have one 'destroyer' and partner them with a more creative player who can drive forwards with the ball and link the midfield to the attack better. So far, Adlene Guedioura has excelled in this role and has instigated most of the best play we've mustered. Perhaps in his absence Ben Osborn would have been a better fit against Birmingham and ensured we didn't relinquish as much space and momentum to the opposition. Colback appears to have the nod over Watson at this time, although his style of play is likely to attract cards and maybe even a knock or two, so it pays to have Watson waiting in the wings.

Number 10 role

If Forest really are to challenge for promotion this season, then they're probably going to need something special from Joao Carvalho. It was only right to give Soudani a start on Saturday after his goalscoring exploits, but fielding him behind the striker left too much space between the deeper midfielders and the attackers (although, this might have been made worse by picking both Watson and Colback). Club record signing Carvalho has shown some neat touches and flashes of talent, he now needs to get used to his team mates as much as the rigours of the league. Frustrating as it might be, Soudani might have to settle for a wide berth or a role as an impact sub to chase a game. Ben Osborn might even be a consideration for this number 10 role too, especially if we're up against a team who will have a lot of the ball.

Wingers

Joe Lolley's thunderous striking was a timely reminder of his talents, and will probably propel him back into the starting XI. Matty Cash has been one of the most impressive performers so far this season, with his pace, work rate, strength and finishing ability helping to secure some decisive goals and is making himself tough to drop. Gil Dias has shown flashes of ability - more so than Diogo Goncalves you'd say - while Soudani might well be worth a place as an attacking wide man who can give more direct support to the central striker. The biggest issue might well be that most of our wide players look better off the bench when sent on to save a game - although I suspect this part of the team is where Karanka is most likely to rotate anyway, depending on whether we're at home or away and who we're playing against.

Striker

We desperately need Lewis Grabban to get up and running this season - and I've said before that I feel that a lot rests on his shoulders from a goalscoring perspective. If his form or fitness stop him getting 20 goals then we'll need to get more from Daryl Murphy - and his two goals this season have shown that he can still be a decent finisher - or bring in another player with the money that seems to be coming in from Blackburn for Ben Brereton.


It's still early days yet, of course, but Karanka knows that time is of the essence and that he's being asked to make three seasons' progress in one. While he's got plenty of food for thought in his notebook so far, there might only be four or five positions in which his first choice is totally clear. The time for chopping and changing too much will very soon be over.

Now is when he'll need to be decisive, ruthless and probably lucky if he wants to repay the faith shown in him during the transfer window.

Forest's spending spree naturally makes me nervous - but there are signs things might be different

I have to admit, when Forest spend money it makes me nervous. Yes, excited too, but nervous. It's the same sort of feeling I get when we win a penalty. You know that it's a good opportunity and should lead to something positive - but there's also that nagging feeling that it might not.

It'd be easy to blame Fawaz for this. It might well be fairly accurate too. The ex-owner handed out big name contracts like confetti and, with a lack of planning or strategy, led us up the FFP garden path while presiding over a year-on-year decline.

Yet while it is easy to apportion blame to Fawaz, it's also too simplistic to pin it solely at his door. The spending splurges of Steve McClaren and David Platt - under their respective regimes - were every bit as badly handled. During all three periods there was excitement at the prospect of new arrivals - often for big transfer fees - and in all three cases things quickly unravelled and left us with a big mess to clear up.

Now, don't get me wrong, there are signs that things may well be different this time and this isn't about having a moan and groan. But bitter experience has made me wary of getting too carried away, no matter how many Wikipedia pages I read about talented young Portuguese prospects. I always think that when it comes to Forest's imports, for every Bryan Roy in the past there's been an Andrea Silenzi.

🇵🇹 Portuguese stars sign

💬 João Carvalho: “I am very proud to join this club.”

💬 Diogo Gonçalves: “Hopefully the fans can get behind the team and help us to achieve promotion.”
#NFFC #ThatLovingFeeling pic.twitter.com/EiZupQB1Br

— Nottingham Forest FC (@NFFC) June 14, 2018

On paper, Joao Carvalho, Diogo Goncalves and Gil Dias look several steps up from the likes of Hildeberto Pereira, Ryan Mendes and Lica who have checked in at the City Ground in recent years (and hopefully a level above Platt's infamous Italian trio Moreno Mannini, Salvatore Matrecano and Gianlucha Petrachi). Carvalho's £13.2 million arrival from Benfica didn't just break the transfer record, it almost trebled it. With the valuations placed on his compatriots there's a potential £50 million of creative talent in those three alone. If that potential is realised, the 18,000-plus season ticket holders could be in for a thrilling ride this season.

Yet there's clearly a level of uncertainty about the trio. It's amazing how quickly some people are prepared to predict a title victory parade on the basis of three players they've never seen and had never heard of a couple of weeks ago. All three need to settle to a new country, league and manager and mature into men's football after battling for game time at their parent clubs (albeit at a much higher level than ours). They might need time to settle - just as Karanka might need time to find the right formula for his new-look attack. It's not enough to say 'it worked for Wolves' - these are different players coming into a different team. There might be £50 million of talent there on paper, but that doesn't always translate on grass and, unfortunately, that's where it matters.

Hopefully, the trio - and they may not be the last - can help each other to settle in Nottingham. The arrival of Tobias Figueiredo too means there's a strong Portuguese contingent in the squad now. The Sporting centre half's arrival, however, is a good sign for much more than his nationality. He showed himself to be a very capable performer at Championship level last season and should team up with the returning Michael Dawson to form the sort of strong defensive partnership that we've been sadly lacking in recent years. Our attacking flair has to be built on better defensive foundations in 2018/19 and Dawson should, along with Ben Watson, also provide leadership and stability for the side.

Yet, while Karanka might have his leaders and his flair players, the biggest gaps in his squad still remain. A striker, left back and goalkeeper are all a must - as is a right back now that Eric Lichaj has made the switch to Hull. All of that means even more money to spend - with the striker likely to carry a big transfer fee, especially if we choose to supplement the fresh faced talent from Portugal with a proven Championship goal scorer (which will hopefully be the case). The thought of all the work still left to do - and the money that might still need to be spent, probably contributes to my nervousness.

Again, though, there are signs that we've planned this spending spree better. Goncalves and Dias arrive on loan - with a view to permanent moves if everything goes well - and Figueiredo's 2 million Euro fee looks a bargain. Carvalho's price tag might appear eye-popping, but signing him on a five-year deal also allows us to spread the cost over the course of a long-term contract, while Dawson is a free transfer. The rumour mill has linked us with Costel Pantilimon, Sam Byram and Fabio - all of which could be attracted on loan or relatively cheaply to free up funds for the likes of Lewis Grabban, Jack Marriott or Patrick Bamford, the likely attacking targets. This,  it seems, is how clubs comply with FFP and still manage to spend.

You'd like to also think that work is ongoing to move on the players who left on loan in January - none of which were missed - as well as the likes of Vellios and Mancienne, who surely fall short of the standard required.

There can be little doubt that the standard required of Karanka is a promotion push. Yet the scale of that challenge cannot be underestimated. How many of the side who started on the final day at Bolton (Kapino, Darikwa, Osborn, Fox, Hobbs, Colback, Bridcutt, Watson, Tomlin, Lolley, Brereton) will begin the 2018/19 campaign in the first XI? One or two? That level of change usually requires time and patience. Given his top six target, the ex-Boro man might not be expecting to be granted either and he'll want - and need - to show the hierarchy that he can come good on that ambitious goal by Christmas at the very latest.

It's another big summer of change at the City Ground. It's probably needed to shake away the mediocrity of recent years and has certainly helped to whip up enthusiasm. Hopefully the club's hard work in installing a structure and developing a strategy over the last year or so will bear fruit and show that it really is different this time. By then, I'll have found something else to be nervous about I'm sure.

'Only' pride to play for? Rubbish

In football, it's often said that there's 'only pride left to play for'. That cliché has certainly been applied to Forest ever since relegation was mathematically impossible (and before for some brave souls).

Yet that cliché is rubbish for two reasons. Firstly, 'only pride' implies that pride alone is a poor reward. That completely ignores the fact that, outside of the rarified world of the Champions League superpower clubs, wins are not exactly a throwaway joy that happen every week. I certainly haven't become blasé about Forest winning matches and every victory is worth cherishing. On top of that, every game matters from the perspective of the individuals on the pitch - their personal stories, milestones and careers - as well as those in the stands. Every match is someone's first, someone's 'one for the season', someone's 'big game' because of a personal rivalry or just their escape from the humdrum of work. If people are being paid to play and people are paying to watch then of course it matters and there's also a sense of professionalism and duty in carrying on when others in the table continue to fight out the promotion and relegation races.

Ben Brereton prepares to finally end a club record goal scoring drought with a penalty against Ipswich Town.

Secondly, and importantly in the context of Forest's current ambitions, seasons don't happen in a vacuum. The way you finish one season can set the tone for the start of the next. You may be thinking that there are 'two games left to the end of the season' but Aitor Karanka is more likely to be thinking that he's got 20-25 games to whip us into shape so that we're challenging at the top end of the table come Christmas. That may seem ridiculous, but you can't ignore the fact that the owners will want to see drastic progress on the pitch next season and - rightly or wrongly - will expect a promotion challenge at least. In the grand scheme of things, there aren't a huge amount of games to transform us from bottom third strugglers to top third challengers and there's no time to lose in doing the work required to get there.

In that respect, this end of season spell should prove invaluable for the Spaniard. He's had a long time to assess the relative merits of both the existing playing staff and his first batch of new signings. These games should have given him chance to think about how he wants to play and who fits into his plans and where.

If that is the case then it will mark a big change from previous seasons. The five years of Fawaz all saw seasons fizzle out at the end - all with different managers in charge from the men who sent out a side on the opening day.

I wrote two years ago about the end of campaign flops for Seat Pitch. To update the list, we've now seen:

• 2012/13: One win and four draws in the last eight games as Billy Davies' initial run of one draw and six wins came to a crashing halt.
• 2013/14: Two wins in the last 16 games as Billy was sacked and Gary Brazil was left holding the baby for the incoming Stuart Pearce.
• 2014/15: No wins in the last eight games as Dougie Freedman's honeymoon period fizzled out.
• 2015/16: Three wins, and just 12 goals, in the last 15 games as the Freedman reign ended and Paul Williams stepped in.
• 2016/17: Four wins - and nine defeats - in the last 16 games as we left it until a nail-biting last day of the season to stay up on goal difference.
• 2017/18: Four wins from the last 16 games as we've limped past last season's points total with two games to spare.

Yet the stats only tell part of the story. It's not just the poor results that have been disappointing in these end-of-season slumps, it's been the fact that much of this time has been wasted. The club has been all-too-happy to let things drift and wait to press the reset button yet again, often going through the motions while fielding loanees that stand no chance of returning.

The challenge for the current ownership and management is to shake us out of the current cycle of underperformance. By making the games at the end of this season count - in that we can take away some useful lessons for next season - we can make a start towards the overall goal. 

The fact that Karanka will still want to make drastic changes to his playing staff is pretty clear. However, the more changes required, the harder it will be to knit it all together. You'd like to think that he's established a few of the building blocks for his side. If Ben Watson's leadership, Liam Bridcutt's dynamism, Joe Lolley's mazy wing play, Matty Cash's boundless energy and Tobias Figueiredo's solid defending all feed into the team next season then it'll be easier to hit the ground running. The whole squad will be used to his shape and tactics by now too.

Beating Barnsley 3-0 on a wet Tuesday night at the City Ground.

Plus, if we can avoid having to sign squad players and back-up options then we can save the precious transfer kitty for strikers and expensive creative players. The owners have shown every intention of wanting to spend money in the summer, but the high price commanded by top strikers will mean that we still need to be wary of the dreaded FFP rules. Karanka should know exactly who he can utilise and where by now.

On the flip side, Karanka should have also seen enough to avoid sentimentally hanging on to players who need to be moved on. Michael Mancienne, for example, probably exemplifies the mediocrity that the club needs to move on from. Mark Warburton's failure to fix a defence that was so obviously leaky was a costly error (although perhaps he was preoccupied with filling the goalscoring void left by the departing Assombalonga?). 

So, against Bristol City and Bolton - just as in the 3-0 win against Barnsley - there's both pride to play for and the medium to long term future. There's no 'only' about either of those things and by taking both factors as motivation we can hopefully sow the seeds to avoid a seventh successive slump at the end of next season.

Karanka needs ruthlessness and results

Never mind words, we're starting to see what the Marinakis regime will be like in practice. The sacking of Mark Warburton after a month of poor form with the team in 14th was followed by the sanctioning of ten new signings in the January transfer window. The team, you feel, now needs to show the sort of ruthlessness on the pitch that the club has shown off it.

That certainly wasn't the case in Saturday's horror show against Hull. The 2-0 defeat to the previously-toothless Tigers left open the very real threat of a relegation battle. The last ten games have now yielded a pitiful five points - repeat that in the next ten and there's no doubt that we'll be in a mess.

It was baffling - but so very Forest - that we'd signed so many new players and were still watching the same old rubbish, not least at the back. Every new manager comes into the club and learns the hard way that Danny Fox can no longer cope at left back, it seems, while we merely have to be subjected to the same painful lessons as they play out in front of us. Michael Mancienne isn't a player I particularly rate but, my position notwithstanding, he is clearly woefully out of form and ill-suited to the role of captain. After Hull's first goal you could see several of their players geeing each other up but there were no such signs of encouragement on our side, from the captain or anyone else. Joe Worrall, too, is a young player who looks like he might need some time out of the firing line to fine tune a few things, with a worrying tendency to make mistakes creeping into his game.

In fairness to the defence, it can hardly have been easy for them. From Freedman's emphasis on defensive solidity to the gung-ho days of Philippe Montanier and the short passing mantra of Mark Warburton, these players have borne the brunt of dramatic changes in style in recent seasons. Now again, half way through a season, we're expecting them to adapt to another manager and yet another way of playing.

It'd perhaps be impatient to expect all of the new signings to be match fit and ready to go, but it did still feel odd not to see more of them against Hull. Karanka and the board were clearly concerned enough by the quality of the squad to make drastic changes in January, but the team selection didn't seem to reflect this. I can't help thinking that the introduction of Ben Watson or Lee Tomlin, for example, might have helped to signal the change in mentality and attitude that we badly need. As Karanka himself said, when Hull's goal went in we were a beaten side. The fact that that goal came after nine minutes - and that Hull are a poor side - said everything you need to know about Forest's lack of confidence and poor powers of recovery.

Whether the selection was wrong or not, however, Saturday's game was worrying. Managing one shot on target all game (it's now only five on target in our last three and no goals at home in the last five) showed a lack of fight. Had we bombarded the opposition's goal in the second half and lost 2-1, say, we might at least have had something to cling to. The team also looked a mess. What exactly was the plan going forward? Who was going to score the goals we needed? Out of form top scorer Kieran Dowell did not look at home on the left. Under Warburton, the criticism was that we lacked a plan B to change games when we were losing. On Saturday we didn't appear to have even a plan A.

Aitor Karanka has a big job on his hands to turn this around. He has the pedigree to suggest he can do the job - and he's been backed in the transfer market too. We have to hope that, given time, Karanka's ideas and his new personnel can deliver the results needed to avoid getting sucked into a basement battle. The January window certainly saw players come in in a greater volume and quality than seen in previous years.

It could be argued, of course, that signing ten new players is, in itself, an alarming sign. No club should need quite such drastic surgery mid way through a season, certainly not if things are going well. However, the signing spree did see us snap some quality players several of which - Ben Watson, Joe Lolley, Jack Colback - have experience of promotion to the Premier League. On face value, the glut of midfield additions flies in the face of the fact that we can't currently score goals and we're shipping them at an alarming rate at the other end of the pitch. Midfield changes can, of course, screen the back four better and help to create more chances and it has to be hoped that Karanka can find a formula that does both of those things. He'll have to be ruthless - that word again - and that might mean leaving out talented academy graduates, an out of form Dowell, some of his own new signings or even a combination of all three.

We've often argued that a manager will need two or three transfer windows to truly shape his squad. Maybe the owners have heard this and sought to deliver two or three windows worth of signings for Karanka in one go? I certainly think they'll be expecting to see some results between now and the end of the season. Rightly or wrongly, does anyone think they'll be happy to hobble on, scrape 15/16 points and limp to safety? I actually think they believed that switching Warburton for Karanka left open the outside chance of a play-off push. If that was the case, we're all seeing how deluded that was now.

While you'd like to think it's not a case of 'top six or out' this season for Karanka, I still fear he'll need to show real signs of progress if he's to continue going forward. If that sounds daft, it's because football is daft. The owners want a promotion challenge next season, that much is now clear.

The immediate priority is, however, to stop the rot. Games against Hull, Burton, Reading and QPR had looked like an opportunity to pick up some points - now they look like games that could drag us into the dogfight if we're not careful. With ten new players in the bag, it'll take Karanka a long time before he knows his best 11 but he needs to find a formation and combination to work from; one that can tough out the odd draw. Burton might well be bad at home, but Hull were in horrible form away too and no-one should be in any doubt of Forest's magical ability to breathe life into an out-of-form opposition.

Over to you, Aitor Karanka

How was it for you? The annual spin on the managerial merry-go-round comes round with as much certainty as a Goose Fair ride these days, this time leading to Aitor Karanka taking Mark Warburton's place in the City Ground hotseat.



I'd made it clear that I thought Mark Warburton deserved more time to complete the work he'd started, but that wasn't to be. We'll probably never know exactly what caused the club to part company with the former Brentford man. Was it a fallout over transfer targets, concerns over the playing style and team selection, the poor form in recent games, the fact that we were too far off the play offs or a combination of the above? Yet the fact he was given the push after the defeat to Sunderland - and the identity of the man who has replaced him - might well tell us a lot about what the owners are thinking.

I wrote in my last post about Nicholas Randall's open letter to the fans in the summer yet it felt like axing Warburton - described as the 'perfect fit' for the club - marked a change of approach from that vision. Or, at the very least, it brought into question the talk of the precious commodity of time and the need to be realistic in our ambitions as the club emerged from intensive care.

While I think it'd be wrong to state that no progress was made under Warburton, there was clearly a debate as to how much progress we were making under him. The answer to that question really depends on your expectations. The fact that Warburton has joined the long list of ex Nottingham Forest managers (imagine a meeting of that disparate group? What would Joe Kinnear and Billy Davies talk about?!) suggests that the new ownership wants promotion a lot quicker than I first thought.

Personally, I think it'd be crazy to expect Karanka to pull off an unlikely push at the top six this season (surely a dangerous overestimation of the quality of the squad) but I sense the regime would be disappointed not to see the club among the challengers this time next year. The former Boro boss has half of this transfer window and the summer to take the foundations laid by Warburton (and the academy) and build a challenge. It's a big ask, but it is one he managed in similar circumstances in the North East, where he took his charges to the play-off final in his first full campaign.

If the club has shown itself to be ambitious - and ruthless - in making this move, the fact that the hierarchy was able to persuade Karanka to come to Nottingham is impressive. The Spaniard is said to have turned down a number of opportunities to return to football management since he departed the Riverside. Indeed, it's thought Birmingham failed to offer the resources and assurances needed to secure his signature. Given that he's a man who has bided his time, you'd like to hope that the club must've presented an attractive and ambitious vision to attract him. Neither he nor his backroom team have been shy about talking of promotion upon arrival at the club. It'll certainly be interesting to see what sort of budget he has available given that the FFP constraints still make their presence felt.

Just arrived in Nottingham, can’t wait to get started! #NFFC pic.twitter.com/NTHn2MiwZn

— Aitor Karanka (@Karanka) January 9, 2018

In many respects, Karanka seems an ideal appointment. It avoided the head vs heart sentimentality of signing up an ex player and sidestepped the risk of an unknown manager (although I'd be open to snapping up a lower league manager on the up personally). If the Greeks - or anyone else for that matter - care about these things, he's a Champions League winning player in his Real Madrid days with a pedigree that deserves respect. As a coach, he's young and fresh while, at the same time, has invaluable experience with Middlesbrough and a promotion on his CV. He's certainly a lot less polarising than many of the names on the bookies' list and seems to still attract affection from many Boro fans. You'd also like to think he'll only tweak the style and shape Warburton favoured, avoiding the need for a long and expensive tactical overhaul.

Of course, he isn't perfect. There remains a question mark about his falling out with the Boro hierarchy for starters. Yet the other major criticism - that he was overly defensive - seems churlish. Firstly, we're desperate for defensive solidity after a season and a half of leaking goals far too readily. Secondly, this suggestion applies most clearly to the caution Boro' demonstrated in the top flight, where they failed to score enough goals to retain their Premier League status. Frankly, we're a long way off the luxury of worrying about that.

We have to hope that Karanka is smart enough to be able to quickly weigh up what's he's inherited. The Arsenal game - still scarcely believable - demonstrated the breadth of young talent coming through the ranks. These players need to be nurtured, not replaced with journeymen signings - something that short termist thinking has caused in the past. The need for greater strength and quality, especially in defence, should hopefully also be apparent as the clock ticks away on the January window. No-one wants to see a repeat of the shambles of last January's transfer window (has anyone found Joao Teixeira yet?).

Those journalists with close contact to the new regime have certainly argued that the Warburton era will end up being written off as a false start for the Marinakis era and, with hindsight, will prove the right move. Without evidence to the contrary myself I'm keen to retain an open - and sceptical - mind. I like the look of Karanka, but I've learned not to get too attached to managers over recent years. You never can quite tell if a boss will be able to replicate their success in another club either. Gary Megson, now rightly maligned by Forest fans, arrived having done a job at West Brom that we'd have loved him to repeat on Trentside. It'd be wholly unfair to tar anyone, least alone a brand new manager, with the Megson brush, but his memory serves as a warning not to get too carried away.

Still, I am happy that we've recruited a good manager. That's only part of the puzzle but it is a big one. The next step should be to appoint a Director of Football to replace Frank McParland. It would certainly be a lot healthier if the person filling this berth isn't as closely linked to the man in the dugout this time.

Aitor Karanka seems clear about the challenge and the expectation ahead. He now needs the support to deliver. I don't know about you, but I'd quite like it if the merry-go-round ended its annual visit to the City Ground from now on.