It'd be easy to blame Fawaz for this. It might well be fairly accurate too. The ex-owner handed out big name contracts like confetti and, with a lack of planning or strategy, led us up the FFP garden path while presiding over a year-on-year decline.
Yet while it is easy to apportion blame to Fawaz, it's also too simplistic to pin it solely at his door. The spending splurges of Steve McClaren and David Platt - under their respective regimes - were every bit as badly handled. During all three periods there was excitement at the prospect of new arrivals - often for big transfer fees - and in all three cases things quickly unravelled and left us with a big mess to clear up.
Now, don't get me wrong, there are signs that things may well be different this time and this isn't about having a moan and groan. But bitter experience has made me wary of getting too carried away, no matter how many Wikipedia pages I read about talented young Portuguese prospects. I always think that when it comes to Forest's imports, for every Bryan Roy in the past there's been an Andrea Silenzi.
🇵🇹 Portuguese stars sign— Nottingham Forest FC (@NFFC) June 14, 2018
💬 João Carvalho: “I am very proud to join this club.”
💬 Diogo Gonçalves: “Hopefully the fans can get behind the team and help us to achieve promotion.”
#NFFC #ThatLovingFeeling pic.twitter.com/EiZupQB1Br
On paper, Joao Carvalho, Diogo Goncalves and Gil Dias look several steps up from the likes of Hildeberto Pereira, Ryan Mendes and Lica who have checked in at the City Ground in recent years (and hopefully a level above Platt's infamous Italian trio Moreno Mannini, Salvatore Matrecano and Gianlucha Petrachi). Carvalho's £13.2 million arrival from Benfica didn't just break the transfer record, it almost trebled it. With the valuations placed on his compatriots there's a potential £50 million of creative talent in those three alone. If that potential is realised, the 18,000-plus season ticket holders could be in for a thrilling ride this season.
Yet there's clearly a level of uncertainty about the trio. It's amazing how quickly some people are prepared to predict a title victory parade on the basis of three players they've never seen and had never heard of a couple of weeks ago. All three need to settle to a new country, league and manager and mature into men's football after battling for game time at their parent clubs (albeit at a much higher level than ours). They might need time to settle - just as Karanka might need time to find the right formula for his new-look attack. It's not enough to say 'it worked for Wolves' - these are different players coming into a different team. There might be £50 million of talent there on paper, but that doesn't always translate on grass and, unfortunately, that's where it matters.
Hopefully, the trio - and they may not be the last - can help each other to settle in Nottingham. The arrival of Tobias Figueiredo too means there's a strong Portuguese contingent in the squad now. The Sporting centre half's arrival, however, is a good sign for much more than his nationality. He showed himself to be a very capable performer at Championship level last season and should team up with the returning Michael Dawson to form the sort of strong defensive partnership that we've been sadly lacking in recent years. Our attacking flair has to be built on better defensive foundations in 2018/19 and Dawson should, along with Ben Watson, also provide leadership and stability for the side.
Yet, while Karanka might have his leaders and his flair players, the biggest gaps in his squad still remain. A striker, left back and goalkeeper are all a must - as is a right back now that Eric Lichaj has made the switch to Hull. All of that means even more money to spend - with the striker likely to carry a big transfer fee, especially if we choose to supplement the fresh faced talent from Portugal with a proven Championship goal scorer (which will hopefully be the case). The thought of all the work still left to do - and the money that might still need to be spent, probably contributes to my nervousness.
Again, though, there are signs that we've planned this spending spree better. Goncalves and Dias arrive on loan - with a view to permanent moves if everything goes well - and Figueiredo's 2 million Euro fee looks a bargain. Carvalho's price tag might appear eye-popping, but signing him on a five-year deal also allows us to spread the cost over the course of a long-term contract, while Dawson is a free transfer. The rumour mill has linked us with Costel Pantilimon, Sam Byram and Fabio - all of which could be attracted on loan or relatively cheaply to free up funds for the likes of Lewis Grabban, Jack Marriott or Patrick Bamford, the likely attacking targets. This, it seems, is how clubs comply with FFP and still manage to spend.
You'd like to also think that work is ongoing to move on the players who left on loan in January - none of which were missed - as well as the likes of Vellios and Mancienne, who surely fall short of the standard required.
There can be little doubt that the standard required of Karanka is a promotion push. Yet the scale of that challenge cannot be underestimated. How many of the side who started on the final day at Bolton (Kapino, Darikwa, Osborn, Fox, Hobbs, Colback, Bridcutt, Watson, Tomlin, Lolley, Brereton) will begin the 2018/19 campaign in the first XI? One or two? That level of change usually requires time and patience. Given his top six target, the ex-Boro man might not be expecting to be granted either and he'll want - and need - to show the hierarchy that he can come good on that ambitious goal by Christmas at the very latest.
It's another big summer of change at the City Ground. It's probably needed to shake away the mediocrity of recent years and has certainly helped to whip up enthusiasm. Hopefully the club's hard work in installing a structure and developing a strategy over the last year or so will bear fruit and show that it really is different this time. By then, I'll have found something else to be nervous about I'm sure.
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