Karanka's selection dilemmas: What have we learned about Forest so far?

I don't know about you but I can't help but notice that Aitor Karanka loves a good scribble and I'd be fascinated to know what he's furiously noting down in games. While it might well be his shopping list (milk, eggs, bread, full back), the chances are he's jotting down what he's learning about his team in the early season fixtures - and he might well be going to be getting through a few more notebooks yet.

The biggest criticism of the Spaniard so far is that he doesn't know his best eleven. Unless he was following in the footsteps of his mate Mourinho and being especially stubborn, surely even he'd have to admit this was true. Yet the arrival of 13 new players - albeit some returning after loan spells - was always going to require a settling in period.

While performances so far have been more mixed than results would suggest, you'd like to think the lessons of these early season notes will stand Karanka in good stead as he strives for the right formula (in terms of personnel at least, since it's fairly clear he wants to play 4-2-3-1).

So, what might he have learned so far? Here's my guess at the contents of Karanka's casebook:

Goalkeeper

Costel Pantilimon seems to be the settled choice in goal. Yet, while his towering presence at the back is welcome he does need to learn to keep his cool a little better. Opposition managers will certainly fancy their chances at putting him off at corners. Luke Steele looks to be a smart choice as experienced back up should the Romanian lose either his temper or his form and deserves to start cup games to keep sharp should his moment arrive.

Right back

Sam Byram looks to be an astute capture from West Ham. He was a classy performer for Leeds at this level and should be comfortable on the ball in both defensive and attacking positions once he's settled down. Darikwa has the athleticism required to be a modern full back, but probably lacks the decisiveness needed in both boxes to be first choice. In fact, the decision over Tendayi demonstrates the question the manager has to ask about all of his players - will he get me into the top six?

Left back

Left back a tricky position? Surely not? To say we've been here before is putting it mildly. In truth, it's too early to judge Jack Robinson but he'll probably be given the chance to make this position his own. However, we're probably going to be left with a dilemma in that Robinson struggles with the attacking side of the role and Ben Osborn lacks the defensive nous needed. Karanka, like countless managers before him, also wants to find a way to get the energy and drive of Osborn into his team and might well - at home at least - choose to use him as an attacking full back.

Central defence

Soft goals from crosses continue to find their way into the back of the Forest net at a worrying rate and whilst it's wrong to blame these solely on the central defenders it's fair to say we're not yet as solid in this area as we'd all like. As a defender himself, Karanka should have a decent sense of what is required here. So far he's stuck with Danny Fox and Tobias Figueiredo but it wouldn't be a surprise to see changes here soon. The Portuguese defender has looked a little rusty to me - perhaps showing the ill-effects of a shortened pre-season. He's misplaced the odd pass and has tended to rush into tackles or challenges that he shouldn't be getting dragged into, which has left us exposed at times. Fox, meanwhile, has earned praise for his performances and rightly so. Yet, this is probably the best that he can get and teams are getting wise to his raking cross field balls to the right wing. While I admire his Reds resurrection, I can't help but thinking that a Fox-led central defence probably isn't up to scratch for the top six (this question again and the standard the owners and manager have made clear we'll be judged on this campaign). I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see Michael Dawson and/or Michael Hefele blooded into the team soon to add strength and aerial prowess to the team. Hefele's bubbly personality might well help to settle a few nerves too.

Midfield

It seems increasingly clear that the manager has an 'either/or' choice when it comes to Jack Colback and Ben Watson. Fielding both makes us a little too defensive and pedestrian and we have a better balance when we have one 'destroyer' and partner them with a more creative player who can drive forwards with the ball and link the midfield to the attack better. So far, Adlene Guedioura has excelled in this role and has instigated most of the best play we've mustered. Perhaps in his absence Ben Osborn would have been a better fit against Birmingham and ensured we didn't relinquish as much space and momentum to the opposition. Colback appears to have the nod over Watson at this time, although his style of play is likely to attract cards and maybe even a knock or two, so it pays to have Watson waiting in the wings.

Number 10 role

If Forest really are to challenge for promotion this season, then they're probably going to need something special from Joao Carvalho. It was only right to give Soudani a start on Saturday after his goalscoring exploits, but fielding him behind the striker left too much space between the deeper midfielders and the attackers (although, this might have been made worse by picking both Watson and Colback). Club record signing Carvalho has shown some neat touches and flashes of talent, he now needs to get used to his team mates as much as the rigours of the league. Frustrating as it might be, Soudani might have to settle for a wide berth or a role as an impact sub to chase a game. Ben Osborn might even be a consideration for this number 10 role too, especially if we're up against a team who will have a lot of the ball.

Wingers

Joe Lolley's thunderous striking was a timely reminder of his talents, and will probably propel him back into the starting XI. Matty Cash has been one of the most impressive performers so far this season, with his pace, work rate, strength and finishing ability helping to secure some decisive goals and is making himself tough to drop. Gil Dias has shown flashes of ability - more so than Diogo Goncalves you'd say - while Soudani might well be worth a place as an attacking wide man who can give more direct support to the central striker. The biggest issue might well be that most of our wide players look better off the bench when sent on to save a game - although I suspect this part of the team is where Karanka is most likely to rotate anyway, depending on whether we're at home or away and who we're playing against.

Striker

We desperately need Lewis Grabban to get up and running this season - and I've said before that I feel that a lot rests on his shoulders from a goalscoring perspective. If his form or fitness stop him getting 20 goals then we'll need to get more from Daryl Murphy - and his two goals this season have shown that he can still be a decent finisher - or bring in another player with the money that seems to be coming in from Blackburn for Ben Brereton.


It's still early days yet, of course, but Karanka knows that time is of the essence and that he's being asked to make three seasons' progress in one. While he's got plenty of food for thought in his notebook so far, there might only be four or five positions in which his first choice is totally clear. The time for chopping and changing too much will very soon be over.

Now is when he'll need to be decisive, ruthless and probably lucky if he wants to repay the faith shown in him during the transfer window.

A 'what if?' starting XI

Imagine if the purchases of Hilal Soudani and the Portuguese trio Joao Carvalho, Diogo Goncalves and Gil Dias didn't come off. Yes, I know that's pretty pessimistic - I can't help it after years of bitter experience - but bear with me on this.

If that worst case scenario were to play out, we could now line up with a starting XI which looked something like this:



Now, I don't know about you but even this pessimistic old sod is fairly pleased with that 'what if?' team.

Importantly, it marks a step up from last season in several key areas. There's a more solid defence - on paper at least - with the likes of Michael Mancienne and Matt Mills cast aside and the unpredictable Armand Traore removed. There's also real leadership with the returning Michael Dawson and Ben Watson and, in Lewis Grabban, someone with a good goalscoring record at this level. Jack Colback and Costel Pantilimon bring experience and a winning mentality that was also missing this time last year.

I'd back that team to do better than the one that took to the field in 2017/18, especially if the centre halves gel and we can cut out the daft defensive errors that have plagued us for far too long now. With Fox, Worrall, Bridcutt, Brereton, Murphy, Clough and Guedioura on the bench there'd be a bit of back up and competition too.

Would it challenge promotion? Maybe not. That'd depend on whether or not Cash could continue his excellent progress, whether Watson has the legs to manage a full season and whether Grabban could bear the vast bulk of the goalscoring burden.

That, however, is where the imports come in. I'm not going to profess to having become an expert in the new recruits, but their pedigree suggests that they all have the talent to shine at this level.

Soudani looks the sort of character who could become a cult hero, with the sort of cheeky confidence and style that fans love. He could compete for any of the three forward positions and offer something a little bit different to the attack.

Joao Carvalho has a 'record signing' tag to live up to but he Gil Dias and Diogo Goncalves need to bring the sort of pace, vision and all-round quality to help us to dominate teams - or find a way to win the sort of tight encounter that is common in this league.

The Championship is far too unpredictable to be certain of anything at this stage. Who, for example, knows what to expect from Aston Villa after a tumultuous summer? It seems, however, that our overseas attacking imports would need to shine if we were to be among the contenders at the top. The good news is that our recruitment drive this summer has now set in place the solid foundations for a more stable Championship side regardless. That should help to take the pressure off the new boys as they look to settle in to a new club, league and country and give them a platform from which to shine.

My pessimism is still keeping me in check, but I am looking forward to seeing this side come together. Aitor Karanka has been backed. He'll know that he now needs to translate his squad's promise into points.

Forest's spending spree naturally makes me nervous - but there are signs things might be different

I have to admit, when Forest spend money it makes me nervous. Yes, excited too, but nervous. It's the same sort of feeling I get when we win a penalty. You know that it's a good opportunity and should lead to something positive - but there's also that nagging feeling that it might not.

It'd be easy to blame Fawaz for this. It might well be fairly accurate too. The ex-owner handed out big name contracts like confetti and, with a lack of planning or strategy, led us up the FFP garden path while presiding over a year-on-year decline.

Yet while it is easy to apportion blame to Fawaz, it's also too simplistic to pin it solely at his door. The spending splurges of Steve McClaren and David Platt - under their respective regimes - were every bit as badly handled. During all three periods there was excitement at the prospect of new arrivals - often for big transfer fees - and in all three cases things quickly unravelled and left us with a big mess to clear up.

Now, don't get me wrong, there are signs that things may well be different this time and this isn't about having a moan and groan. But bitter experience has made me wary of getting too carried away, no matter how many Wikipedia pages I read about talented young Portuguese prospects. I always think that when it comes to Forest's imports, for every Bryan Roy in the past there's been an Andrea Silenzi.

🇵🇹 Portuguese stars sign

💬 João Carvalho: “I am very proud to join this club.”

💬 Diogo Gonçalves: “Hopefully the fans can get behind the team and help us to achieve promotion.”
#NFFC #ThatLovingFeeling pic.twitter.com/EiZupQB1Br

— Nottingham Forest FC (@NFFC) June 14, 2018

On paper, Joao Carvalho, Diogo Goncalves and Gil Dias look several steps up from the likes of Hildeberto Pereira, Ryan Mendes and Lica who have checked in at the City Ground in recent years (and hopefully a level above Platt's infamous Italian trio Moreno Mannini, Salvatore Matrecano and Gianlucha Petrachi). Carvalho's £13.2 million arrival from Benfica didn't just break the transfer record, it almost trebled it. With the valuations placed on his compatriots there's a potential £50 million of creative talent in those three alone. If that potential is realised, the 18,000-plus season ticket holders could be in for a thrilling ride this season.

Yet there's clearly a level of uncertainty about the trio. It's amazing how quickly some people are prepared to predict a title victory parade on the basis of three players they've never seen and had never heard of a couple of weeks ago. All three need to settle to a new country, league and manager and mature into men's football after battling for game time at their parent clubs (albeit at a much higher level than ours). They might need time to settle - just as Karanka might need time to find the right formula for his new-look attack. It's not enough to say 'it worked for Wolves' - these are different players coming into a different team. There might be £50 million of talent there on paper, but that doesn't always translate on grass and, unfortunately, that's where it matters.

Hopefully, the trio - and they may not be the last - can help each other to settle in Nottingham. The arrival of Tobias Figueiredo too means there's a strong Portuguese contingent in the squad now. The Sporting centre half's arrival, however, is a good sign for much more than his nationality. He showed himself to be a very capable performer at Championship level last season and should team up with the returning Michael Dawson to form the sort of strong defensive partnership that we've been sadly lacking in recent years. Our attacking flair has to be built on better defensive foundations in 2018/19 and Dawson should, along with Ben Watson, also provide leadership and stability for the side.

Yet, while Karanka might have his leaders and his flair players, the biggest gaps in his squad still remain. A striker, left back and goalkeeper are all a must - as is a right back now that Eric Lichaj has made the switch to Hull. All of that means even more money to spend - with the striker likely to carry a big transfer fee, especially if we choose to supplement the fresh faced talent from Portugal with a proven Championship goal scorer (which will hopefully be the case). The thought of all the work still left to do - and the money that might still need to be spent, probably contributes to my nervousness.

Again, though, there are signs that we've planned this spending spree better. Goncalves and Dias arrive on loan - with a view to permanent moves if everything goes well - and Figueiredo's 2 million Euro fee looks a bargain. Carvalho's price tag might appear eye-popping, but signing him on a five-year deal also allows us to spread the cost over the course of a long-term contract, while Dawson is a free transfer. The rumour mill has linked us with Costel Pantilimon, Sam Byram and Fabio - all of which could be attracted on loan or relatively cheaply to free up funds for the likes of Lewis Grabban, Jack Marriott or Patrick Bamford, the likely attacking targets. This,  it seems, is how clubs comply with FFP and still manage to spend.

You'd like to also think that work is ongoing to move on the players who left on loan in January - none of which were missed - as well as the likes of Vellios and Mancienne, who surely fall short of the standard required.

There can be little doubt that the standard required of Karanka is a promotion push. Yet the scale of that challenge cannot be underestimated. How many of the side who started on the final day at Bolton (Kapino, Darikwa, Osborn, Fox, Hobbs, Colback, Bridcutt, Watson, Tomlin, Lolley, Brereton) will begin the 2018/19 campaign in the first XI? One or two? That level of change usually requires time and patience. Given his top six target, the ex-Boro man might not be expecting to be granted either and he'll want - and need - to show the hierarchy that he can come good on that ambitious goal by Christmas at the very latest.

It's another big summer of change at the City Ground. It's probably needed to shake away the mediocrity of recent years and has certainly helped to whip up enthusiasm. Hopefully the club's hard work in installing a structure and developing a strategy over the last year or so will bear fruit and show that it really is different this time. By then, I'll have found something else to be nervous about I'm sure.

A history of failure: Nottingham Forest and the January transfer window

The January transfer window is rubbish isn't it? It's full of pompous Premier League clubs and their telephone number transfer fees, dull and never ending 'sagas' involving spoiled and sulking superstars, 'Sky Sources' and Twitter timelines full of desperately unfunny try-hards.

Yet, on top of that, there's the fact that we're just plain rubbish at it. Time and time again, Forest have failed to secure the players they need, with the club more often than not finding itself torn between transfer strategies or in the midst of managerial turmoil at this time of year.

Indeed, arguably, we're here again. Having just sacked Mark Warburton, lost director of football Frank McParland and appointed Aitor Karanka, we're playing catch up. I'm hopeful that Karanka has just enough time - and the backing - to sneak one or two in the door in the next week or two but I'm not getting carried away.

So, while we patiently wait to see if Karanka can have any success, here's a sobering look at the last ten Januarys and our transfer activity (or lack thereof) to serve as a reminder/warning/therapy:

2006/07

Transfers in: Luke Chambers

Loans in: David Prutton

Transfers out: Neil Harris, Ross Gardner, Nicky Southall, Danny Cullip

Loans out: Nicky Eaden

Verdict: I remember being completely baffled by the departure of Nicky Southall. With 35 games in all competitions and seven goals to his name, we surely wouldn't just let him leave to Gillingham on a free without lining up a replacement, right? Wrong. The move unnecessarily weakened the squad - with the later loan of James Henry failing to fill his shoes - as we headed for a play-off disaster. Prutton's return was tarnished by his red card in that play-off defeat to Yeovil.

2007/08

Transfers in: Garath McCleary
Transfers out: Scott Dobie, Neil Lennon

Verdict: No-one was sad to see either Scott Dobie or Neil Lennon depart from the City Ground but the raw talent of Garath McCleary - plucked from non-league Bromley - wasn't the injection of talent we needed for a promotion push. Luckily Brett Ormerod's later loan move would give us some impetus and help us to force our way to second.

2008/09

Verdict: There was no transfer movement in the January of 2009. Billy Davies had just been appointed and dipped into the loan market in March, with the likes of Chris Gunter and Dexter Blackstock helping the Scot's successful survival bid. Still, the lack of January additions left the risk of relegation hanging over us.

2009/10

Transfers out: Arron Davies
Loans out: Matt Thornhill, Brendan Moloney

Verdict: Loanee Nick Shorey returned to parent club Aston Villa at the end of January, with no permanent additions made to Billy Davies' play-off bound side. It felt like a missed opportunity - and a situation that wasn't helped when George Boyd later arrived on loan despite apparently not being wanted by Davies.

2010/11

Transfers in: Marcus Tudgay
Loans in: Paul Konchesky
Transfers out: Matt Thornhill
Loans out: Joe Garner

Verdict: Marcus Tudgay had earned his permanent move after helping us to smash the Sheep 5-2 but the arrival of the Sheffield Wednesday striker and another left back loanee in Paul Konchesky wasn't enough to help Davies' side go beyond the play offs.

2011/12

Transfers in: Marlon Harewood
Loans in: Adlene Guedioura, Danny Higginbotham, Scott Wootton
Transfers out: Wes Morgan, Patrick Bamford
Loans out: Kieron Freeman

Verdict: This was a transfer window tinged with sadness. Club stalwart Wes Morgan and up and coming star Patrick Bamford were sacrificed to help fund the signings needed to secure short term survival as a new owner was sought. We'd gone from needing to find the missing piece of the puzzle 12 months earlier to being desperate for fresh legs to stay up after the ill-fated Steve McClaren expermined. Still, events of the January window were put into perspective  by the tragic death of Nigel Doughty in February.

2012/13

Transfers in: Stephen McLaughlin, Khaled Al Rashidi, Darius Henderson
Loans in: Gonzalo Jara, Elliott Ward (extension to previous loan)
Transfers out: Robbie Findley, Lee Camp, Brendan Moloney
Loans out: Karl Darlow, David McGoldrick, Matt Derbyshire

Verdict: Alex McLeish had been drafted in just before the January window opened - and didn't last long once it had shut. This window is infamous for didn't happen rather than what did - with the farcical failure to complete the capture of George Boyd at the eleventh hour apparently put down to a failed eye test. Little did we know but it was to set the tone for the 'Fawaz era'.

2013/14

Transfers in: Rafik Djebbour, Jack Hobbs
Loans in: Danny Fox, Kevin Gomis, David Vaughan (extension to previous loan)
Transfers out: Khaled Al Rashidi
Loans out: Ishmael Miller

Verdict: Billy Davies was back with 'unfinished business' but I'm not sure Rafik Djebbour or Kevin Gomis were top of his list of targets. The club was bullied into paying a transfer fee for an unfit Jack Hobbs by Hull and, amazingly, Khaled Al Rashidi drifted off the books without making an impact in 12 months. Billy was heading for a meltdown - and the sack - by the end of March.

2014/15

Loans in: Todd Kane, Gary Gardner
Loans out: Dan Harding, Louis Lang

Verdict: Fawaz's free-spending finally came back to bite, landing us with a transfer embargo before the 2015 January window opened. Stuart Pearce, having spent a decent amount of money in the summer, was restricted to the loan captures of Todd Kane and Gary Gardner as he struggled to regain his early season momentum. Gardner, at least, was an excellent addition.

2015/16

Loans in: Bojan Jokic, Gary Gardner

Verdict: Embargo still in place, Dougie Freedman went down a well-trodden path - taking a left back on loan and returning to Villa for Gary Gardner. Sadly, Gardner could never quite live up to the promise of his first spell and Freedman was soon sacked despite never having the chance to operate outside of a transfer embargo.

2016/17

Transfers in: Zach Clough, Gboly Ariyibi
Loans in: Aaron Tshibola, Joao Teixeira, Ross McCormack
Transfers out: Henri Lansbury
Loans out: Tyler Walker, Jorge Grant

Verdict: With an American takeover shelved and Gary Brazil installed on January 14 until the end of the season, this window was Fawaz's final folly. Tshibola and McCormack were unfit, Teixeira was never even seen - making it baffling that we'd bothered to break him out of a season long loan to Wolves -  and Ariyibi is still yet to be used. Clough burst into the team amid high hopes, but his form and fitness faded and he has struggled to get back into the side this season (risking becoming another Jamie Paterson).



In some respects just looking through the January windows says a lot about the club in the last decade or so. From a struggle to find the missing pieces of the promotion puzzle, through to the 'quantity not quality' profligacy under Fawaz and the subsequent embargo it caused, these windows show a club that has drifted along with little sense of strategy.

In this context, we shouldn't expect too much this January. A quality central defender would be top of my list (preferably someone who can act as a leader) and if that's all we can get it'd be better than some of the disastrous Januarys we've seen in previous years. The long term aim for the club should be to avoid a similar series of disappointments and disasters from now on. Perhaps then we could learn not to dread this wretched month.