Give us a chance lads. If you're going to have a season defining January, at least give us the opportunity to have a naff New Year countdown before kicking off, will you? In truth, the apparent departure of Djed Spence back to parent club Middlesbrough seemed as inevitable as Neil Warnock blaming the officials for a defeat. Yet, for news to come on New Year's Eve - and be sparked by a harsh Football League stance against Chris Wilder's men - was an unexpectedly early reminder of how big the next few weeks are.
It all seemed so simple after seven games didn't it? Six defeats and one draw meant the task ahead was clear. We were in a relegation battle and faced a long slog. I looked at teams bottom of the league after six games and found that in the last ten years four had been relegated and the average finishing position was 20th. So, it wasn't terminal, but it was interminable. A strong air of 'here we go again'.
Yet we're all aware by now that Steve Cooper's stunning start has changed the conversation. Up until the last two defeats, the ex Swansea-boss had top of the league form and a points tally that took us inexplicably to the edge of the top six. It's been said a lot elsewhere, I know, but it's worth heralding the massive turnaround in attitude, mentality and tactical flexibility Cooper has engineered. His refreshing mindset has permeated all levels of the club and led to a side that can actually attack and entertain after a descent into the doldrums of drabness. His reign has been one great celebratory fist pump that has roused us from a sullen slumber.
Steve Hodge on #nffc Head Coach Steve Cooper:
— BBC Nottingham Sport (@BBCRNS) December 30, 2021
''He's brought this group together from being an unhappy group of mainly younger but some senior players to a group of players who never give up and seem happy with life at the moment and the results bear that out''. pic.twitter.com/6bZPd7K2yh
All of a sudden, a season in which survival would be a success turned into something else. Not only that, but the lack of decent teams at this level even meant that the campaign almost posed an opportunity that would be too good to miss. Just when you think you can relax and enjoy it, there comes the looming pressure and angst that is as much of a fixture of following Forest as the whiff of dodgy burgers on Trent Bridge or the sound of Colin Fray saying 'nothing doing' on commentary.
But, where do we go from here? Can we capitalise on a crap league and ride the crest of a wave into the Promised Land - or will we slip away back towards that 'average finish of 20th' that was the best we could hope for in September?
The fact is, either really could happen and much depends on what happens in January.
If Spence is gone for good - and the picture is far from clear as I type - then he has to be replaced quickly. We'll miss the fact he brought an energy and dynamism to the full back spots that was on the Matty Cash spectrum. Given that the threat of his departure has been raised often you'd like to think Dane Murphy will have had a short list of lung-bursting full backs ready. This is the first window where we may be able to judge the American's influence over transfer strategy and, while shopping in January is a mug's game really, it's important that he can pull a rabbit or two out of the hat if we're to rediscover the momentum we had pre-Boro.
The negative version of January also sees one - or, whisper it quietly, both - of Joe Worrall and Brennan Johnson depart to the Premier League. The sums spoken about for Brennan so far are laughable (buzz off Brentford) - but there's nothing to say someone such as Newcastle might decide to panic buy a prospect or two just to show off their chequebook. Losing our most explosive attacking threat or an influential leader at the back would be a blow that would be difficult to recover from. Any new recruits in their place might take time to get up to speed or might just turn out to be inferior. If any club has learned that new players do not necessarily equal an improvement it's surely ours.
But, if we kept at least two of the three above? And if Dane's a smart shopper? And if Max Lowe can get fit? And if our rivals have their players poached instead? Well, then it could be a different story.
In recent weeks we have seen there are a couple of gaps that need to be filled even with Spence, Johnson and Worrall at the club. We need quality, not quantity - and one decent attacking winger (left sided please Santa) and a striker would make a big difference.
The rumoured arrival of Keinan Davis would be interesting - not least because Villa have stuck by him for a long while and have shown a belief in an ability that a cursory glance at his Wikipedia page can't do justice to. An injection of pace and power is certainly not to be sniffed at and would be an upgrade on Lyle Taylor's contribution.
Cooper will know from 2019/20 with Swansea that an astute January addition can make a difference. His signing of Rhian Brewster on loan brought 11 goals in the second half of the season and catapulted his side into the play-offs (I forget who missed out). Indeed, in 2010/11 the same club drafted in Fabio Borini in March on loan and were propelled into the play-offs with him scoring six in eight starts (I forget who they beat over two legs). A similarly impactful arrival could put us firmly on the 'glass half full' trajectory.
The games in January matter too. The cup is largely irrelevant - but a good performance and avoiding a big defeat to Arsenal could be a morale boost. A thrashing on the telly could drain optimism and leave us on a downer. Then there's the Sheep to come too - and we all now what an outsized influence those games can have on the positivity at the club - again in either direction.
Barnsley (home) and Cardiff (away), meanwhile, are games that contenders find a way to win and sides that can't cope with expectation and pressure find a way to mess up. Cooper's early run was under the blissful freedom of zero expectation - something that has evaporated thanks to his success so far.
My gut says we're short of what's required to reach the top six - not least in terms of the time needed to build a side/club. But my head also says that a wide open Championship season such as this leaves open outcomes that should otherwise be fanciful.
At the start of the season, I said the range of possibilities for Forest were anything from 4th to 24th. After seven games, 4th was beginning to look daft - but Cooper's troopers have at least shown that I was right to have faith in the fact that, if everything clicked, there was talent at the club. 4th is probably still our upper ceiling and, while you'd like to think a relegation battle should be a distant memory, a slide into a sad lower third finish is still on the table too if we're not careful.
We won't know which season ending we've selected at the end of January. But, come the end of the current campaign, we'll surely look back on this next month as being significant in deciding the outcome.
