Martin’s mission for the run-in after Ipswich disappointment

It’s not always easy to be measured on Twitter is it? After the away draw at Ipswich I was one of the people offering up a negative opinion on social media. I stand by it too. We were appalling at Portman Road and didn’t really deserve the point we left with. The pictures and videos shared afterwards of the dreadful decision to flag Daryl Murphy offside showed that we’d been on the wrong end of a howler from the officials – but that shouldn’t detract from a performance that was every bit as bad as the linesman’s call. It was a disjointed mess and made talk of the play offs seem pretty silly.
 

Yet it’s perfectly possible to think and say all of that and still have a balanced view of the season as a whole – it’s just hard to express that in one of cyberspace’s shortest formats. While our Suffolk showing warranted a withering assessment, there’s always someone willing to take it too far. Some of the anti-O’Neill comments online after the game were pretty daft and it’s a shame that some want to harness negativity to prove a point about a manager they perceive to be a ‘dinosaur’. I agree that playing three defensive minded midfielders seemed strange at Ipswich and that we struggled to assert ourselves against a side that has won just three games all season – but I wouldn’t want either to be seen as evidence for some embarrassing crusade to undermine the current occupant of the City Ground hot-seat. Still, theirs is a minority opinion that shouldn’t be over-egged – the mood in the stands is very supportive and the demand for tickets undimmed.

There are, of course, many reasons why we might have struggled at Ipswich. The hosts, for a start, have made a habit of 1-1 draws in recent weeks and seem to be playing with a little more freedom now that safety seems a distant dream. Windy conditions (a good enough excuse for Jurgen Klopp recently) might have contributed to turning the game into a poor spectacle and the team had a general air of ‘bring on that international break’ about it, even though I’m sure that was sub-conscious. I do think we’re starting to see a little rust from players who were thrown into the heat of the Championship battle mid season. In truth, we’ve got more out of Benalouane, Yates, Pele and Milosevic than I thought we would – and we’re forcing Murphy into more of a role than is ideal due to Grabban’s continued absence. Joao Carvalho, the much-discussed big money transfer, has never played so many games of men’s football, a fact that shouldn’t be forgotten on top of the continued process of acclimatising to the English game.

Yet, rust, exhaustion, wind and a better-than-expected opposition are all factors that a top six side would still overcome. If you’re going up you find a way, even when some cards are stacked against you, to come out on top. I’ve never felt we’re quite in a position to make the play-offs come May at any point this season and days like this do nothing to change my mind. We need to discover the winning mentality that sets the likes of Norwich apart from the pack.

Again, though, that doesn’t mean I’m on a massive downer or about to start a naff hashtag. We’re definitely making progress as a club when compared to where we’ve come from, and I’m happy enough with our broad direction. Let’s be honest, it’s easier to ‘find a way’ on days like last Saturday if you have a settled style and stick with a manager for more than five minutes. Once again, we’re switching tactics mid season under a new boss who is having to work from his predecessor’s blueprint and player pool. O’Neill’s whole reign will have to operate on fast forward as he aims to condense 2-3 years of work into 18 months – but that doesn’t mean we should ignore that it’s hard to address all the details on fast forward.

The international break should give us the chance to press pause and work on a few things – and to allow a few players to shake off injuries and/or rust. I’m sure O’Neill is smart enough to have diagnosed all the issues we have – and he’s spoken well about the lack of consistency that has dogged this collection of players all season. He’s still learning the limitations of his squad – and feeling the ill effects of a lack of firepower. Grabban’s goals – and constant threat – gives the side a different dimension but O’Neill has also had to do without third top scorer Matty Cash too. Players such as Hilal Soudani and Diogo Goncalves were recruited to help make a difference from the bench but injury and form have rendered their impact minimal. With few obvious options to chase a game, O’Neill has needed to tinker to try different faces and formations to force the issue.

 I feel the run-in after this break is important, but not in a ‘top six or else’ way. Finishing strongly will help to maintain the goodwill around the club that continues to translate into impressive ticket sales. It will also give the players confidence that they belong in the promotion race and the owners the assurance that O’Neill and co can lead a challenge next season. It might also be influential in persuading Jack Colback to return to the club for another campaign. Not only that, but if O’Neill can end the season on a high with 7/8 players settled in terms of his starting XI then we’ve finally got something to build on and won’t need to take several steps back for another tiresome whole scale rebuild.

 Of course, if the opportunity arises to surge into the play offs then that would be a bonus. It might take six wins from the last eight – unprecedented form this season – and trips to the Sheffield clubs and the visit of Pulis’ Boro might make it tough to get a run together. Conquering our chronic inconsistency and getting everything to click together is a massive ask and Ipswich only served to demonstrate the challenge ahead. Manage it and Martin will have pulled off a minor miracle and we’ll all be happy – even the most miserable of Twitter trolls. Finishing strongly and demonstrating decent progress are more realistic aims and are the important first steps towards next season. That’s a mission we should all bear in mind over the remaining eight games – and the context in which individual performances can legitimately be judged.

Fragile Forest need to find some fight for 'Survival Sunday'

Well, that's another fine mess we've landed ourselves in. With a depressing familiarity, Forest slumped to an away defeat at QPR and left us facing a nerve-biting 'Survival Sunday' clash against Ipswich. Two threads have been constant amid the chaos of 2016/17: a failure to capitalise on good results against big teams at home and an inability to dig out a result away from home. Both continued at Loftus Road and both could yet cost us our place in the Championship.

Sunday's clash is the biggest game at the City Ground for some time. Indeed, the last play-off semi-final against Swansea six years ago probably wasn't quite so pivotal. It threatens to be a nerve jangling affair, especially given the prospect that we could, technically, win and still go down. Indeed, it could even pan out that both us and Blackburn lose and we still switch places.

But, freak permutations aside, this is one last chance for us to earn our place in the second tier for next season. We've blown the golden opportunity to bury Blackburn at home and the chance to win at QPR and make life more straightforward. In a season defined by missed opportunities - on the field and off it - this one really has to be taken. Momentum is with a resurgent Rovers but we do, still, have home advantage in our game (thank goodness), a better goal difference and the benefit of having scored more goals if it comes to that.

However, I don't know about you but I'm not overly confident. The fact that the game is on Sky and a 'Kids for a Quid' fixture only ramps up the pressure. It's probably a sentiment that rests more on fear than fact but neither strike me as positive omens. Memory of our performances in the 'big occasion' play-off home games weighs heavy too.

More importantly, however, is the fact that this is a fragile team that has frozen on so many occasions this season. After the kamikaze early days under Montanier faded, we've often looked overcome by panic and dread when we've gone behind in games. Ipswich aren't a great side, let's be honest, but they probably have all of the attributes that we lack. They're organised, tough, streetwise and are a more coherent team put together by an astute manager. They've only won the same amount of games as us this season yet they've earned enough draws to be clear of safety. Yes, they lost to Rotherham and have been beaten by Lincoln this season, but they also recently put Newcastle to the sword. If we let the occasion get the better of us on Sunday, they can easily punish us.

Indeed, a friend of mine said a few weeks ago that he feared a Luke Chambers and David McGoldrick inspired victory on the final day, two ghosts from the past coming back to haunt us in the worst possible way. Maybe it'd be apt if Mick McCarthy, a man who turned down Fawaz right at the start of his tenure, were to put the final nail in the coffin at the end of his failed ownership?

Of course, it has been suggested that Evangelos Marinakis will be taking over regardless of what happens on the pitch against Ipswich. There's perhaps even a train of thought that suggests that relegation wouldn't, therefore, be the disaster that it would be under Fawaz. That's a dangerous mentality.

Firstly, there's absolutely no guarantee that we'd come straight back up. We didn't last time and neither did the likes of Sheffield United. For every Bolton, Leicester and Norwich there are plenty of examples of clubs who have floundered in the third tier. League One was a heck of a slog last time - there's nothing to suggest that it won't be just as tough again. It'd be far better, in my view, to build ourselves up in this league as Brighton, Leeds and Sheffield Wednesday have all done.

Secondly, let's not get carried away about Marinakis. Would relegation really not matter to him? Until the deal is signed and Fawaz is finally gone nothing should be taken for granted. The events of the last year should show that. Surely the only attraction of buying Forest is the vague prospect of getting the club up to the rich boys playground of the Premier League anyway? Maybe there's no risk that the sale will fall through, I'd rather us not create an excuse for it to do so though.

Finally, the core of young talent at the club might well be broken up by a relegation. We lost the Paul Hart academy core before, let's not allow the Brazil generation to be scattered across other clubs. I'm tired of having to be happy for our prospects when they thrive elsewhere - it's time that we built a club and a team fit to capitalise on the academy's ground work. The vultures are circling, safety makes it easier to get rid of them.

Yet, oddly, you do feel that there's light at the end of the tunnel if we could somehow stumble over the finish line. This manager, with this batch of young players and fresh ownership (with the right structure and backing) could well put us on a positive course. This team is more talented than the miserable Megson flops but it just lacks some key characteristics. On the days when it clicks, we can all see that there is 'something' there - but the current situation risks stamping out that spark of promise before it can develop. We're at a big crossroads and Sunday might well decide which path is taken.

One of the main problems is that Warburton has a big squad but little resembling a balanced team to pick from the mishmash of players he has inherited. Yes, there's plenty of talent, but there are also lots of flaws - with many players lacking experience, fitness, form or all three.

It's such a shame that the post-embargo shopping has been so awful. Indeed, our transfers were probably better when constrained by the FFP straitjacket. It says much about the club that only one of the five January deadline signings is in with a chance of starting on Sunday. That window was one of the many, many missed opportunities we've had - a chance to shop for players to plug gaps in the playing staff not waste time and money on ridiculous loanees like Joao Texeira who will never see the light of day.

Still, it remains the case that there should, just about, be an eleven in there with the ability to overcome Ipswich. The question might be whether or not we're ready mentally to overcome the occasion. There will be much talk in the build up to the game about this being like a 'cup final' yet the stakes are higher. Defeat won't just bring the disappointment of a missed opportunity (another one) but could define the club for years to come.

There is of course one other hope. Maybe Mark Warburton's good work with Brentford will have laid the foundations for his old side to beat Blackburn and do him a favour? The sad truth is that this might be the best card left in our hand on Sunday. Still, I'm not fussy. Safety, however it comes, is all that matters.

A nervous week awaits before the big game - for everyone from the players to those of us who persist with this daft old club come rain or shine. We can, of course, do our bit on the day to roar them on. There's a chance to seize the moment and create an occasion that we can look back on as a turning point. It could be a day for young guns to come of age and to set off into the sunset for a positive future. The grim alternative is the stuff of nightmares and might well give us a few sleepless nights in the next week.

Forest face daunting tests against Burnley and Ipswich

These are crazy times in the Football League. Uwe Rösler being sacked and replaced by Steve Evans? Swindon sacking Mark Cooper and, temporarily at least, appointing the chairman? It used to be called the managerial merry-go-round yet that makes it sound rather too placid doesn't it? There's nothing merry about it. The firing range would be a more apt description.

CONFIRMED | Steve Evans is the new head coach at #lufc. Full story: http://t.co/JVHBZ9TKXD pic.twitter.com/JQlvnG9XJc

— Leeds United FC (@LUFC) October 19, 2015

Yet, sadly, you can see how quickly the spotlight can fall on any manager. When 1-0 up at Huddersfield, Dougie Freedman was riding high. Buoyed by some decent late business on deadline day, the Scot won two games on the bounce and gave title contenders Middlesbrough a run for their money in a match that should have brought a point. Even when the post denied Chris Burke a goal to double the lead and a goal line clearance stopped Chris O'Grady opening his account, things looked comfortable. Even still, when a wicked deflection from a thunderous long range effort flew in to level at 1-1 we still came away with a point. Freedman had suffered just one defeat in four after the deadline day loss of Michail Antonio, a return that not many had predicted.

That Huddersfield game was followed by yet another home encounter in which we mounted a good performance against a promotion contender and were unlucky to lose. Abel Hernandez's header for Hull looked a borderline offside call and a point from an entertaining game would surely have been a fair reward.

Yet context is very quickly forgotten in football these days. The performances against Boro and Hull were positive for large parts, yet, when added to Friday night's dismal defeat to Bristol City, they now form part of a run of three wins in the last 19 league games.

No matter that we played well in games, no matter that we had 11 players missing on Friday night and no matter that that stat includes 8 largely meaningless games towards the end of the last campaign. Those factors simply aren't considered when the stats are laid bare.

The other issue for Freedman is that Friday night's performance, particularly the opening 20 minutes, was so poor that it did much to spoil the good work of the previous matches. An out-of-position, and rusty, Danny Fox and two injury prone centre halves in Kelvin Wilson and Jack Hobbs looked completely lost as the rampant hosts pushed for their first home win of the campaign and raced into a 2-0 lead.

With the midfield providing no screen for the struggling defence, Forest made Aaron Wilbraham look like a Knutsford Didier Drogba and Luke Freeman like Andres Iniesta with a woman's hair cut.

IT TAKES TWO! Aaron Wilbraham nets his second goal for @bcfctweets against :@Official_NFFC pic.twitter.com/Wj95K5chjn

— Andy Stockhausen (@AndyStockhausen) October 16, 2015

Credit must go to the hosts for such a forceful start, but the fact we couldn't see this out - and could have conceded more - was frightening. Were it not for Dorus De Vries and Daniel Pinillos you feared an Alistair Cook-esque cricket score.

From then on we did gradually improve but, as a friend at the game said, this was (at least in part) because the home side had done their job and played within themselves to avoid letting the three points slip. They saw it out well and largely restricted us to potshots as our goal-shy attack continued to struggle to find the back of the net.

Ordinarily you'd relish the chance to put right such a performance. Yet Sean Dyche's fifth placed Burnley and a Mick McCarthy-led Ipswich outfit looks a tough double header at any time, let alone when you're struggling at home.

Neither of the two visitors are quite as strong on the road as at home, but both arrive with genuine promotion ambitions and offering tough tests of our side's physical, tactical and footballing ability. Dougie would, I'm sure, snap your hands off at two performances that are worse than those against Hull and Boro but bear greater fruit. He knows the points column is where he'll ultimately be judged.

Dougie Freedman says #NFFC must start to ‘turn performances, energy and shots into results.’ http://t.co/UYWu4fhjU0 pic.twitter.com/RGrgO3lCSt

— Nottingham Forest FC (@Official_NFFC) October 19, 2015

I personally think it's fairly daft to consider Freedman - with the FFP noose around his neck - to be under pressure at this moment. Equally, though, it's daft to think that Fawaz wouldn't pull the trigger prematurely.

Football management has never come with such a short shelf life. As I've said before, Brian Clough's start of two wins in his first 17 matches at Forest would probably have earned him the sack long before the miraculous European adventures began had this current climate existed in the late 70s. Many people are laughing at Leeds and Swindon today, I merely wince and fear what might come closer to home.

Dougie has shown that he knows his way around the financial restrictions we must operate within. He's recruited well and been a lot less defensive than people have given him credit for (the lack of goals comes despite more shots than anyone else in the Championship). He's hasn't got every decision right and he's got a lot of work to do but he needs to be given a fair chance.

I just hope he can get some results at home this week so that he's got something tangible to hold onto - and not just the context of performances and circumstances.