Over to you, Aitor Karanka

How was it for you? The annual spin on the managerial merry-go-round comes round with as much certainty as a Goose Fair ride these days, this time leading to Aitor Karanka taking Mark Warburton's place in the City Ground hotseat.



I'd made it clear that I thought Mark Warburton deserved more time to complete the work he'd started, but that wasn't to be. We'll probably never know exactly what caused the club to part company with the former Brentford man. Was it a fallout over transfer targets, concerns over the playing style and team selection, the poor form in recent games, the fact that we were too far off the play offs or a combination of the above? Yet the fact he was given the push after the defeat to Sunderland - and the identity of the man who has replaced him - might well tell us a lot about what the owners are thinking.

I wrote in my last post about Nicholas Randall's open letter to the fans in the summer yet it felt like axing Warburton - described as the 'perfect fit' for the club - marked a change of approach from that vision. Or, at the very least, it brought into question the talk of the precious commodity of time and the need to be realistic in our ambitions as the club emerged from intensive care.

While I think it'd be wrong to state that no progress was made under Warburton, there was clearly a debate as to how much progress we were making under him. The answer to that question really depends on your expectations. The fact that Warburton has joined the long list of ex Nottingham Forest managers (imagine a meeting of that disparate group? What would Joe Kinnear and Billy Davies talk about?!) suggests that the new ownership wants promotion a lot quicker than I first thought.

Personally, I think it'd be crazy to expect Karanka to pull off an unlikely push at the top six this season (surely a dangerous overestimation of the quality of the squad) but I sense the regime would be disappointed not to see the club among the challengers this time next year. The former Boro boss has half of this transfer window and the summer to take the foundations laid by Warburton (and the academy) and build a challenge. It's a big ask, but it is one he managed in similar circumstances in the North East, where he took his charges to the play-off final in his first full campaign.

If the club has shown itself to be ambitious - and ruthless - in making this move, the fact that the hierarchy was able to persuade Karanka to come to Nottingham is impressive. The Spaniard is said to have turned down a number of opportunities to return to football management since he departed the Riverside. Indeed, it's thought Birmingham failed to offer the resources and assurances needed to secure his signature. Given that he's a man who has bided his time, you'd like to hope that the club must've presented an attractive and ambitious vision to attract him. Neither he nor his backroom team have been shy about talking of promotion upon arrival at the club. It'll certainly be interesting to see what sort of budget he has available given that the FFP constraints still make their presence felt.

Just arrived in Nottingham, can’t wait to get started! #NFFC pic.twitter.com/NTHn2MiwZn

— Aitor Karanka (@Karanka) January 9, 2018

In many respects, Karanka seems an ideal appointment. It avoided the head vs heart sentimentality of signing up an ex player and sidestepped the risk of an unknown manager (although I'd be open to snapping up a lower league manager on the up personally). If the Greeks - or anyone else for that matter - care about these things, he's a Champions League winning player in his Real Madrid days with a pedigree that deserves respect. As a coach, he's young and fresh while, at the same time, has invaluable experience with Middlesbrough and a promotion on his CV. He's certainly a lot less polarising than many of the names on the bookies' list and seems to still attract affection from many Boro fans. You'd also like to think he'll only tweak the style and shape Warburton favoured, avoiding the need for a long and expensive tactical overhaul.

Of course, he isn't perfect. There remains a question mark about his falling out with the Boro hierarchy for starters. Yet the other major criticism - that he was overly defensive - seems churlish. Firstly, we're desperate for defensive solidity after a season and a half of leaking goals far too readily. Secondly, this suggestion applies most clearly to the caution Boro' demonstrated in the top flight, where they failed to score enough goals to retain their Premier League status. Frankly, we're a long way off the luxury of worrying about that.

We have to hope that Karanka is smart enough to be able to quickly weigh up what's he's inherited. The Arsenal game - still scarcely believable - demonstrated the breadth of young talent coming through the ranks. These players need to be nurtured, not replaced with journeymen signings - something that short termist thinking has caused in the past. The need for greater strength and quality, especially in defence, should hopefully also be apparent as the clock ticks away on the January window. No-one wants to see a repeat of the shambles of last January's transfer window (has anyone found Joao Teixeira yet?).

Those journalists with close contact to the new regime have certainly argued that the Warburton era will end up being written off as a false start for the Marinakis era and, with hindsight, will prove the right move. Without evidence to the contrary myself I'm keen to retain an open - and sceptical - mind. I like the look of Karanka, but I've learned not to get too attached to managers over recent years. You never can quite tell if a boss will be able to replicate their success in another club either. Gary Megson, now rightly maligned by Forest fans, arrived having done a job at West Brom that we'd have loved him to repeat on Trentside. It'd be wholly unfair to tar anyone, least alone a brand new manager, with the Megson brush, but his memory serves as a warning not to get too carried away.

Still, I am happy that we've recruited a good manager. That's only part of the puzzle but it is a big one. The next step should be to appoint a Director of Football to replace Frank McParland. It would certainly be a lot healthier if the person filling this berth isn't as closely linked to the man in the dugout this time.

Aitor Karanka seems clear about the challenge and the expectation ahead. He now needs the support to deliver. I don't know about you, but I'd quite like it if the merry-go-round ended its annual visit to the City Ground from now on.

Still on the road to recovery from intensive care

Intensive care. I can't help but keep thinking back to those two carefully chosen words, offered up by incoming Forest chairman Nicholas Randall to describe the club he was coming to.

In fact, the QC's open letter to fans in June is probably the most important document issued by the club in years. Reading it back now, halfway into the new regime's first season, the whole of this passage also stood out:

"Although we believe in aiming high, we also need to be realistic. The league table does not lie and, whether we like it or not, the club only just escaped relegation this season. To use the medical analogy the club is in intensive care. It is our job to ensure that we nurse the club back to health. It is rare in life for anything of value to come easily. So although we are all excited about the prospects for the club, we must make sure that each step taken is based on strong foundations. Furthermore, as with any journey in life, there will be mistakes made and some setbacks are also inevitable. We will no doubt stumble and occasionally fall, but we promise you that we will keep getting up again until the job is done."

This paragraph is pretty much the prism through which the whole season can be viewed and accurately outlines some of what we've seen since.

So, how are we getting on? Well, while Randall has been quiet since, you'd assume he'd have a slightly sunnier outlook for the club's medical condition.

Off the field, we feel like a proper club again. The commercial and marketing team has worked well, with smart offers and effective communication playing their part in helping to fill the City Ground. The efforts to reach out to fans and the community are also important and noteworthy. The change has been marked - and we've seen pretty much everything we called for in the chaotic mess of the Fawaz era be introduced by way of structure. The foundations Randall mentions have certainly been laid - we have to hope that they prove themselves to be strong when tested.

Am I wrong to still be a little worried about the allegations that persist around Evangelos Marinakis?  Clearly he should be treated as innocent until proven guilty, but there's a nagging concern that it isn't good for the club for him to be under question.

Yet off the field matters are, thankfully after the last couple of years, not primarily the cause of debate.

Results and points have, for me at least, been largely positive. After 24 games of last season we were five places lower in the table and five points worse off. In the calendar year to date, our league results read: P46 W17 D5 L24. Replicate that across 2016/17 and we'd finish with 56 points and in last season's table that would have been enough to finish 16th - again five points and five places better off. Given the steady downward trend under Fawaz, that's not to be sniffed at (and 16th in this division is our average league position this century).

Of course, football isn't about stats alone. Look beyond the numbers and it's fair to say that the team has shown flashes of real style. The QPR game was a joy to watch and, when it clicks, the larger City Ground crowds are treated to some exciting passing football - the sort of play we've often yearned for while under 'pragmatic' bosses such as Megson or Freedman.

Most of the signings made have been positive too. Instead of splurging money on the likes of Nicklas Bendtner, we've invested in younger, hungrier players with the capacity to improve (with the exception of the smart signing of Daryl Murphy to part-fill the Assombalonga void).

We've also continued to promote our academy stars. In some respects, the team has the feel of the early days of Paul Hart and we have to hope it bears similar results as the young players learn how to succeed in the tough environment of the Championship.

Yet, you'd be foolish to suggest everything that we've seen has been positive. The team loses far too many games and is, undoubtedly, in the midst of a sticky patch. Both within individual games - and within the season - they need to show the strength of character to get themselves out of a hole.

In many games, the team can fall flat - with matches such as Cardiff and Sheffield Wednesday at home petering out into tame defeats. The first goal is too significant, confidence a fragile commodity and ruthlessness lacking. All are predictable with a young side but all need work going forward.

The defence - and the protection is receives - is also a concern. We're on course to ship even more goals than last season's 72 at the current rate (one stat that doesn't point to progress). Conceding that many goals is always likely to undermine whatever you're doing at the other end. The biggest failure in the summer was the inability to significantly strengthen in this weak area. Mark Warburton and Frank McParland had seen what we were like last term and ought really to have acted. Of course they may have been outbid by some of the freer spending members of the division (the likes of Birmingham perhaps) and they may have been constrained by the still-significant straitjacket of FFP, but it'd be nice to see a defensive reinforcement or two come through the door in the next month.

It also feels like there's perhaps a lack of leadership on the field, with captain Michael Mancienne seemingly not the figure we need to rally the troops. I appreciate that not every side can have a Stuart Pearce but a stronger leader, in whichever mould, would be welcome.

Yet, while it's fair to raise these concerns I do feel that these are all 'growing pains' associated with the work needed to bring the club out of intensive care. These are the mistakes, setbacks and stumbles that Randall predicted. I personally feel we've shown enough potential and progress to suggest that these things can be overcome in time. Anyone who expected a top six challenge this season must have been smoking something potent.

But you only need to go on Twitter after a game to see that there are some who don't feel this way. Sadly, some of the level of debate after a game is childish. There are those who, whether they'd admit it or not, appear to wish they had Fawaz back. That way they could have their public mardy and be heard again. Maybe they became addicted to the knee-jerk soap opera off the field and miss their fix of drama? Opposition fans must read some of the posts and laugh.

There are clearly some who don't like Mark Warburton. I feel that might partly be down to his character. He's not a charismatic talker in press conferences and, for some it seems, that matters. If he could joke, bluff or divert his way through an interview in the style of a Holloway or Warnock you feel some might be placated. Most managers spout the odd bit of rubbish, but those who do it with a twinkle in the eye or through a catchy soundbite seem to get away with it more. As it is, people hang on Warburton's every word and become unusually irritated by the odd bit of jargon or management speak.

There are those who feel the style of play is foolish too. I feel he's certainly chosen a brave way to play - and definitely not the easiest path to success - but the potential for exciting, dynamic, stylish football is there. Get better at it - as Warburton's Brentford did - and we could be on to something special. As Randall put it: "It's rare in life for anything of value to come easily."

It's also worth bearing in mind the esteem with which the manager is held by the ownership. Randall's letter explicitly stated that the regime wanted to encourage a passing game and praised the manager for his work to move towards this. It promised him time and stressed: "We believe that in Mark Warburton we have not just a good fit but the perfect fit for the role of manager of the club."

If Warburton were to leave - something which is hopefully fanciful in the current moment - you feel that the regime would want another manager like him. The style of play and approach to transfers is here to stay, regardless of the man in the dugout. The FFP question still looms too - with the club clearly wanting to unearth bargain players who can grow in stature and, in turn, value. A chequebook manager wouldn't fit the bill here in the post-Fawaz era.

Much has improved since the 'intensive care' letter. We have, for me at least, shown a decent level of progress out of the ashes of a relegation battle and the sale of a star striker. But, you don't step straight out of intensive care and start running a marathon. The road to recovery is going to require more hard work and more patience.

Frustration as Forest suffer St Andrew's setback

In retrospect, one of the very first moments of Saturday's match at St Andrew's was highly significant. With barely a minute on the clock, the Blues' robust and hard working midfielder Maikel Kieftenbeld committed a foul on Tendayi Darikwa. Whether it was intended to lay down a marker or not, it did. Birmingham were physical, hard working and disciplined, we huffed and puffed but found all three traits tough to overcome.

This fledgling Forest side has a habit of starting sluggishly. We'd even had to overcome a ropey opening before steamrollering QPR last time out. On Saturday we were unable to settle before a Che Adams strike from a tight angle handed the advantage to the home side. It was an advantage we were never able to wrestle back - at least not in terms of the only metric that really matters.

Still, while Kieftenbeld's tough tackle might have set the tone for the home side, you can't help feeling that we contributed massively to our own downfall. A seemingly needlessly conceded corner from Mancienne and some sloppy all round play belied an early malaise that proved our downfall. Ben Osborn looked to have been fouled in the build up to the goal, but not before he'd already made a big error in giving the ball away. From his mistake, it was all-too easy to carve us open and for Adams to be presented with the chance he took with aplomb.

The shot-shy hosts had the worst goalscoring record in the league - and this was just the ninth goal of the campaign for them. It would have been interesting to see how Birmingham would've reacted had they not netted early on - you sense the tension on and off the field might have really worked in our favour. Yet, instead, we gifted them a goal and gave them something to hold onto and build from. At Hillsborough and Villa Park we'd also passed up the chance to twist the knife into a fragile host - it's a ruthlessness that we have to learn in this dog eat dog league.

We shouldn't denigrate the hosts for being physically strong. They played a (peaky) blinder here, getting tackles and interceptions in, being disciplined and breaking forward with purpose and threat. They might not have troubled Jordan Smith too much, but our defence could never rest on its laurels, particularly in the first half.

The likes of Kieran Dowell and Barrie McKay can learn much from tests such as this. Dowell is a gem of a player - as I've written before - but has to be stronger. He's a big lad and, in time, will learn to use his frame to his advantage. Only really Eric Lichaj in the Forest side seems to be able to use his body to shield the ball and keep an opponent at bay on a consistent basis. Eric's no giant and I'm sure he had to learn the hard way too.

Being physically strong as a team doesn't have to mean playing rough football - it's what allows you to impose yourself and dictate the way you want to play. In that sense, it's every bit as important to the success of Warburton's style as the silky passing and technique that his players have demonstrated at times.

All of these traits - being tougher physically, not letting an opponent off the hook and being alert from the opening whistle - need to be learned to give us a harder edge. If we'd had that edge and eradicated some sloppy play we'd have surely walked away with at least a 0-0 from Saturday's game. Indeed, we have to start coming away with a point from games that we can't manage to win.

Still, there's a danger that we let the result completely cloud our thinking. Ben Brereton's performance, for example, would've been viewed differently had the game been 0-0. What might've been labelled as a 'decent shift' became an 'ineffectual' performance through the prism of defeat. This was certainly a physical test for him. He might not always have been successful but it has to be hoped that days such as these will contribute to a learning curve for a player born in April 1999.

Brereton's deflected drive (from a delightful Dowell through ball), Dowell's long-range effort, Jason Cummings' late strike and a Zach Clough snapshot were all half chances and evidence that we were never out of the game. Yet, perhaps because we were behind, the play was often a little too rushed and we never got close to the passing groove of the Rangers romp two weeks before. While it's too much to ask for us to hit those heights every week, the style of play still offers a source of optimism and we weren't dreadful on Saturday - certainly not in comparison with some of the displays in recent years.

Yet, while it's clear to see progress in the cold light of day, that's not to say it's not intensely frustrating in the heat of the battle. When you know the players can do better - and have shown they are capable of much better - it's hard not to be left shaking your head at times. Many of the 2,800 travelling contingent were far from happy at the dogmatic insistence that every corner had to be taken short, for example. While I'm sure it made sense as a tactic - Birmingham would've had the beating of us in the air - it didn't really work and became predictable and easy to crowd out and defend. Could a clever run, a decoy or an accurate cross overcome a height advantage? Perhaps that's one to go back to the drawing board with.

Still, it's early days for this side. Like the beginning of the Paul Hart team, when David Prutton, Gareth Williams, Andy Reid et al found their feet, there will be frustrating afternoons to come. Hart's young guns came out stronger the other side, there's no reason to suggest that this bunch won't too.

The Championship schedule is unforgiving. Saturday should be a reminder, if needed, that there's much more for us to learn.

The game that no-one watched: The last time I saw Forest at Birmingham City

I'm looking forward to joining the 2,800 travelling Trickies at St Andrews on Saturday but, as the fixture approaches, I can't help but think back to the time I visited the ground and a game that was momentous for a couple of bad reasons.

Photo by Florian Müller on Unsplash

While most sane people enjoyed a leisurely start to 2002, perhaps sleeping off New Year's Eve excess, I spent January 1 taking in the midday kick off between us and Birmingham.

The game had been shifted to noon in order to cater for the viewers of ITV Digital, which then had the rights to show second tier games.

When we arrived, it seemed touch and go as to whether we'd actually see any football thanks to the freezing weather. Yet, perhaps with a view to putting on a show for the visiting cameras, the hosts encouraged home fans to come onto the pitch and do their bit to clear off the frost and snow. We could merely watch - heaven forbid the away fans should get on the pitch and potentially clash with the Brummies! - and hope that the army of amateur groundsmen could save us from having ventured down the A42 for nothing.

Yet, if the grand effort was for the benefit of the TV cameras they needn't have bothered. That's because, while the 20,000 crowd might have appreciated the spade work, the official viewing figure for the fixture was zero. Now, apparently, a zero rating is given to any programme with fewer than a thousand viewers but, let's face it, that doesn't sound too impressive either does it? Basically, and probably sensibly given the timing, no-one was watching beyond Bordesley.

Was this the final nail in the coffin for ITV Digital? Who knows. It was certainly not an endorsement of its unpopular scheduling arrangements. Indeed, I recall that many anti-ITV chants were sung in that period in protest of games moved to daft kick off times. Oddly, there are now more games than ever moved for TV in the second tier and yet there's much less protest. Maybe we're more accepting now or maybe Sky's coverage is just better. One thing is certain: by May 2002 ITV Digital stopped broadcasting.

What did people miss? Not much in truth. I don't remember too much about the action - save for the fact that Stern John cancelled out an early Birmingham opener and that Jim Brennan missed an absolute sitter that could have secured all three points.

Yet the equaliser that day was to be the second reason why this fixture proved to be significant. The goal was the 14th of the season for the Trinidadian striker and also his last in Forest colours. John was finally finding his feet in English football yet apparently had a clause in his contract that would have triggered a further payment to former club Columbus Crew. Given our perilous financial predicament, we then couldn't afford for our top scorer to net another goal and, soon after, flogged the £1.5 million man for a bargain £100,000 to promotion-chasing Birmingham.

That's a tale that serves as a timely reminder of the mess we were in in the immediate post-Premier League days. Indeed, it was shortly after the 2002 Birmingham away game that we sold Jermaine Jenas to Newcastle too. While the folly of the Fawaz era left much to be fixed, it isn't the only time we've been in trouble. Indeed, as the excellent Steve Wright said on Matchtalk this week, we've never really been known as a well-run club. Nigel Doughty tried to mop up the mess of the 2002 era - and we owe it to him too to go one step further than he managed.

So, all in all, with fans mucking in to clear the pitch, no TV viewers and the sorry end for our top scorer, that game nearly 16 years ago left an impression. I'm hoping that Saturday is memorable for better reasons.

Oh, and while we're here, here's the starting XI for that 2002 game:

Ward, Vaughan, Brennan, Hjelde, Scimeca, Williams, Prutton, Summerbee, Jenas, John, Lester. Subs: Johnson, Roche, Bopp, Thompson, Gray.

Feels a long time ago doesn't it?

Diamond Dowell: A vision of the past and (hopefully) the future of Forest

Take a bow Kieran Dowell. The Everton loanee took centre stage at Hull on Saturday night and delivered a high quality hat trick that brought home all three points. Dowell's performance in this game, and the season as a whole, offers us some key lessons in the way the team is developing.

On-loan @Everton player Kieran Dowell hat-trick proves the quality at @NFFC.#NFFC pic.twitter.com/7bu6odrHui

— Channel 5 Sport (@Channel5Sport) October 28, 2017

You only need watch Dowell for five minutes to see that he is a player of some pedigree and style. Yet, while that is often the case with young Premier League loanees, Saturday's sensational showing provided that there can be substance to his game as well as style.

In football, the term 'luxury player' is one of those mis-used clichés. Too often it's only really used to mean 'inconsistent' or 'ineffective'. It's why I'm a little annoyed with myself for starting to fear that fielding Dowell in a red shirt might be a luxury we could ill afford. In the soul searching that inevitably follows a Derby defeat, I'd begun to ponder whether we needed grit and hard work in that number 10 role to make ourselves tougher to beat. Yet, it's never a luxury to have a player who can pass, create and score.

Great result and first pro hatrick !! Happy days 😎🎩 pic.twitter.com/UfiNBOJgEK

— Kieran Dowell (@kierandowell1) October 28, 2017

Don't get me wrong, not every game will be Dowell's. Warburton is trying to build a squad of players to suit the varied circumstances which emerge in a Championship season - and the likes of Clough, Carayol, Cash might well all find a stage to showcase their talents. It's healthy too that we aren't pinning all of our hopes on one talisman. But, this fixture showed why it is worth having some patience with the likes of Dowell - when it's his day, we're in for a treat - and we might even be witnessing the start of a very special career. Many Everton fans told us we were in for a treat with Dowell - and some wished they'd kept him. They'll no doubt be keen to have him back.

The comparison made by Bandy & Shinty with Ian Woan is a good one. There will be times when people feel Kieran isn't working hard enough, is being lazy or is drifting out of games. Those are easy criticisms to make of wingers and/or playmakers who are in the side to bide their time and produce the one or two moments in the game that are decisive. It's probably not the likes of Woan, Andy Reid or Dowell who are lazy - it's us for jumping to that often-wrong conclusion.

In many ways Dowell symbolises the team at the moment. There's much promise, flashes of brilliance, some rookie errors and signs that improvement is being made. If he and the team can grow together then that can deliver the progress we're all hoping for. The good stuff is enough to buy a little patience during the off days and anyone who thinks otherwise is daft.

I think we underestimate how tough it must be to just slot into positions such as his - and that filled by Liam Bridcutt. The team as a whole is having to learn to play a new style. Bridcutt was suddenly thrust into a role in which he's receiving - and having to make - a lot of passes with no time to get used to his team mates. Similarly, Dowell is playing a role that requires vision, accuracy, a cool head and a bit of strength and will only really work if the rest of the team functions around him. Sometimes it's said of mercurial players that they only perform if the rest of the team is performing. That might be true, but maybe it's also the case that they can only perform if the rest of the team does its job. Dowell - or any creative player - is every bit as reliant on service as an old fashioned number nine is on crosses onto his forehead.

I have to admit I was guilty of looking at Kieran Dowell very early on and thinking 'there's a proper Forest player'. Yes, I know, that's the sort of arrogance and delusion for which Forest fans are ridiculed by our rivals. In truth, he represents what a 'proper Forest player' used to look like - the sort of classy, composed, stylish-but-unshowy passer we probably took for granted 'back in the day'. These days, our club is no longer really defined by that style. What even was a typical Forest player of the last 10-15 years? We've lurched, largely unsuccessfully, from one to another too many times to be summed up by any style.

Perhaps, then, it's more accurate to say that Kieran Dowell epitomises what we want a 'Forest player' to be. Just as the 'Warburton Way' promises a passing style that we'd love to be renowned for. There's a long way to go yet, of course, but these feel like admirable goals. Just, indeed, like Dowell's three at Hull.

Forest Five Asides: Matching Montanier, Twitter, new style, defender shopping, old boys

I try not to get too carried away by league tables until ten games have been played. Until you've played a decent range of teams both at home and away it's impossible to judge what constitutes a 'good start' but now, having reached that landmark, it's worth seeing where we're at.

Memories of Montanier

A total of 12 points from ten games means we've achieved exactly the same tally as this time last season (although the points came from three wins and three draws a year ago). The comparative calm off the field - and lack of a Burke-shaped deadline disaster - does still give hope that things might not turn as sour as they did under Phillippe Montanier. The Frenchman's reign was just another in a long list of false starts, but it's not just the points total that feels familiar. An inability to keep things tight at the back and a struggle to find a settled starting lineup do, to some extent at least, continue.

Twitter

None of that means I'm 'calling for Mark Warburton's head'. In fact, I can't help feeling that barely anyone really is. It seems these days that a few angry people on Twitter probably get a little too much attention and I've seen many more posts denouncing the 'Warburton Out' cries than I have genuine calls for his removal. Surely only a tiny minority would actually want to see the manager sacked at this stage? The vast majority of fans had modest ambitions for the season and, despite a run of five defeats in the last six games, there's no need to panic and presume that these can't be achieved. Indeed, anyone prone to panicking ought to have 'we stayed up on goal difference on the last day of the season and then sold our top striker' printed out and stuck on every wall of their house as a timely reminder. There's a long way to go.

Yet it's easy to see how one or two tweets can become a 'story' which, in turn, creates a skewed impression. Especially in a click-bait era in which cheap 'Twitter reacts' stories are churned out on an all-too-regular basis. Twitter can sometimes end up in a race to the bottom, with the most outrageous views getting shares and attention, and no-one is ever willing to admit a rash comment made in the heat of the moment was misplaced.

The Guardian's Football Weekly podcast remarked on Monday about the fact that Forest fans had been venting their frustrations on Twitter, which made me wince a little. It'd be a shame if we became known as 'one of those' fanbases that overreacts at every twist and turn. I mean, we're not Liverpool, right?

That's not to say that I'm calling for us all to be nodding dogs who slavishly go along with the 'regime'. Forest are making plenty of mistakes at the moment, and it's clearly fair to be worried about this. I think Seat Pitch summed up the balance to be struck in a piece this week, arguing:

"It doesn’t mean anyone is beyond criticism. It doesn’t mean we meekly stand by and watch a side give away soft goals week in, week out.But it does mean we’re in a process of renewal. It does mean that we trust the owner and the manager to have a plan and to stick to it. It does mean that there will be ups and downs."

Building from the ball, not the back

It's fair to say that the Warburton Way isn't going to be easy to adopt. He wants to develop a system that, by its very nature, will take longer to bed in. He certainly doesn't seem to have adopted the mantra of 'build from the back', in which received wisdom suggests you focus first on setting up a solid defence before anything else (although, conversely, 'build from the back' is what his sides do quite a lot!).

He prefers, it seems, to try to build a style that dominates possession - 'building from the ball' if you will. We shouldn't be afraid of new ideas and plenty of better teams than us try to starve the opposition of the ball. You can't, after all, concede if you're in charge of possession.

The challenge now is to avoid giving the ball away cheaply, learn how to cope with teams who put us under pressure by pressing high up the pitch and to become more dangerous on the ball in the final third. It's a different way, but that doesn't necessarily make it the wrong way. We've shown tantalising flashes of getting it right so far, if we can click then we might well be able to produce some exciting football.

Defender shopping

Still, a defensive recruit seemed an absolute must after last season's troubles and I can't help wondering if he regrets not prioritising this position now. Let's hope Frank McParland is scouring the leagues as we speak and can unearth another gem. His track record so far suggests that he's up to the task.

The current mob might've been tighter defensively under Dougie Freedman but we're not going to be playing 'Freedman football' under Warburton and it seems wishful thinking to me to think that they're good enough in the long run (although I hope I'm wrong, obviously).

Worrying stat #nffc pic.twitter.com/iLBEROJZvS

— BBC Nottingham Sport (@BBCRNS) September 27, 2017

Old Boys

If you needed a reminder about how long we've been out of the top flight then it was perhaps sobering to consider the case of Ryan Sessegnon on Tuesday night. The Fulham man wasn't even conceived, let alone born, when Forest last played a Premier League game.

I once used to fashion fantasy football teams from ex Forest players in the top flight in a vain attempt to cling on to our connection to the big time. I found out recently that I'm not alone - other fans of ex top flight teams have, apparently, been known to adopt a similar tactic.

But, could you even muster a Premier League XI from ex Reds now?

This is the best I could manage: Darlow, Kane, Bertrand, Lascelles, Morgan, Chalobah, Ramsey, Ince, Antonio, Burke, Akpom. It's a stretch given the number of loanees, that Todd Kane is a Chelsea player in name alone and Chuba Akpom is a footballer in name alone, but there you go. Did I miss anyone?

Daryl Murphy and the men who love to play against Forest

Daryl Murphy's arrival at the City Ground does at least one thing. He won't - barring a 'Bendtner at Derby' moment - be scoring against us this season.

The former Newcastle and Ipswich man has five goals in ten games against Forest (including both goals in 2014's 2-2 draw below) - his joint best record against any opposition (although his five against Rotherham came in just five games, so it's a shame they've disappeared down the trap door).



Since I love a good stat that got me thinking about who else always seems to do well against us, the pesky players who save their best for the times when they're up against the Tricky Trees.

Thanks to the superb resources of the Transfermarkt website I was able to satisfy my curiosity. So, here are the men who have their career best goalscoring ratio against Forest:

Rudy Gestede: He's netted seven goals in seven games against Forest, tormenting us with his strength and aerial ability for Cardiff, Blackburn and Aston Villa. He's back in the division with Middlesbrough now, although the arrival of a new £30 million strike force in the North East might at least spare us from seeing him on August 19th if he's still there. His next best tally is four, against Birmingham, so we're far and away his favourite side to play against.

Matej Vydra: The Czech striker might have drifted around clubs since his arrival in England, but his failure to settle down hasn't dampened his enthusiasm for playing against Forest. He has eight goals in seven games, including Derby's first goal in the 2-2 at the City Ground in March, and two assists.

Darren Huckerby: Huckerby's loan spell at the City Ground was a joy to watch, even if it was a huge shame that we never made his move permanent. It was also a welcome change from seeing him put Forest to the sword. He has seven goals in five games against us, his best record against any side. Included in that tally were two hat tricks - one for Coventry in 1999 and one for Manchester City in 2002.

Matt Le Tissier: While Mark Crossley might have been the only man to save a Matt Le Tissier spot kick, the skilful Saints man more than made up for that with eight goals in nine games against us. He scored eight against Aston Villa too, but took 15 games to chalk them up.

Sam Vokes: Burnley are one of those sides who always seem to have the better of us in recent times. It's perhaps no surprise, then, to learn that Vokes' most prolific finishing has been against Forest, with eight goals in 14 games.

Jonny Howson: The Leeds, Norwich and now Middlesbrough midfield man loves a goal against Forest. His tally of six goals (in nine games) is double his best against anyone else.

DJ Campbell: Just hearing his name is enough to give me shudders after 'that' play-off performance for Blackpool at the City Ground. He has six goals in seven games against Forest in total, with three assists.

Stephen Dobbie: Speaking of play-off goalscorers (must we?), Stephen Dobbie also makes this list. While he has a better tally against some teams north of the border, Forest is his favourite English club to play against - with four goals in ten games and three assists. He's also never lost any of those ten games he's played against us. He can stay in Scotland.

Tommy Smith: The tricky Tommy Smith is yet another of those players whose name you hate to see in an opposition line-up. A consistent performer over many years, he has five goals in 12 games against Forest, with four assists. He has also put five past Reading and Coventry, but those have come in 14 and 21 games respectively.

Jason Wilcox: Wilcox was more known for setting goals up than putting them away, but the talented winger plundered five in his eight games against Forest. Two came in Blackburn's 5-1 win at the City Ground in 1996.

While those are the men who have their best goalscoring record against Forest (for recent times at least), there are others who also relished the chance to play against us but just so happen to have a slightly better record against someone else.

Last season's loanee Ross McCormack, for example, has eight goals in 14 games against Forest. That's his joint best tally - but his eight goals against Charlton came in just nine games.

Alan Shearer's career best record came against Leeds - with 20 goals in 20 games - but he plundered ten in nine games against Forest. Of the teams Shearer played five or more games against, Forest is the only one he didn't lose to.

Then there's Gregorz Rasiak. He has seven in seven games against Coventry - but did manage five in four games against Forest. Robbie Fowler scored six in seven appearances against us, Ian Rush scored 10 in 24 and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer netted six in four including that ridiculous four-goal salvo as a sub in the infamous 8-1 home thrashing by Manchester United in 1999.

Dwight Yorke scored five times in nine games, Glenn Murray has five in seven, and Chris Wood five in eight, his second best tally.


Anyway, since the season hasn't even started yet let's at least look on the bright side. With Murphy on board we've at least snared one nemesis. I'll admit that I haven't always been his biggest fan in the past but his capture makes a lot of sense in the context of our current predicament and could turn out to be an astute bit of business to accompany the up and coming attacking talent on the books. The numbers also speak for themselves. His good record against Forest has come at a time when he's been one of the second tier's most consistent scorers. Let's hope he can spend the season finding a few new victims to prey on.

📝 #NFFC are delighted to announce that striker Daryl Murphy has joined the club on a three-year deal. https://t.co/v7bcMt3ac6 pic.twitter.com/ZXysLBY3CE

— Nottingham Forest FC (@NFFC) July 21, 2017